*Indianboy*

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Thoughts of the day Last night I kept wait and light into this young six-week box, with the strip only half-hearing the hawk speak. Overnight forced more of that hearing: flash PMIs ran hot and Barr said further adjustments are likely needed, and October FedWatch jumped into the low-seventies on CME. Process first. A 2% remit is still a hike. Size is still a breakeven question, and that chart has not given me the band. I do not turn a speech or a PMI into size. Rates: FRED 10y BE 2.35 (23 Sep), a touch firmer, still well short of 2.6–3.0. DFII10 2.63 (22 Sep) lags the move. Live 10y around 5.11 after the Wed rip; DGS10 still 4.96 through 22 Sep. Fed 3.75–4.00, IORB 3.90, SOFR 3.87, EFFR 3.88. Said stays hawkish (Barr, Collins, Barkin). Heard finally moved closer. Plumbing: ON RRP still a rounding error near 0.46bn (23 Sep). TGA weekly still 877bn as of 16 Sep. Not the story. Tape: SPX ~7706, ES ~7773; VIX ~15.2 vs VIX3M ~18.1; HY OAS 2.68; DXY ~101.1; USDJPY ~158.2; EUR ~1.139; gold futures ~4323; BTC ~84.4k; WTI ~92.7. What works: firmer nominals with soft risk, a stronger dollar, and a softer euro rhyme. Yen still sold after the BoJ step. What's messy: BE stays quiet while the strip and the 10y scream. That split cuts conviction on size. Front vol rose but still sits under the three-month. So I wait. If BE pushes into the size band while the strip holds the hike path, I can add. Until then, light into the young box.

21/09 added 10 more

Soft oil is a weekend relief. The constraint is still physical. Board first. West Texas Intermediate’s October contract settled Friday at 100.30, down 1.61 dollars, about 1.6%. Gold’s COMEX print held a gain near 4416. The S&P 500 closed 7650.50 (+0.17%). Official 10-year CMT yield 5.01%, 30-year 5.34%. Dollar index about 100.22. EURUSD 1.1486. USDJPY 156.85. Fed funds 3.75–4.00%. That set says inflation pressure from energy cooled a notch on the day without removing the premium that has kept crude in three digits for weeks. Bloomberg’s commodity coverage clustered around three facts. One: oil fell for a third session as traders leaned into signs Saudi Arabia was working to restore East-West pipeline capacity after drone damage, and as some flows continued through the Strait of Hormuz. Two: that pipeline is not a side story — it has been the workaround while Hormuz stays the binding constraint on Gulf exports. Three: JPMorgan’s oil analysts said publicly what desks had muttered — predicting the end of the Iran war has become nearly impossible after economic red lines the bank once treated as political limits were already breached. Read between the lines of supply concerns ease. The price can fall on repair timelines and diplomatic noise. The stock of risk — contested waterway, months-long war, militia channels — does not clear because WTI prints 100 instead of 105. Wraps that call 100 the end of a volatile week are describing the chart, not the choke point. Historical analogy: think less spike-then-peace-dividend and more premium-oscillates-while-the-strait-stays-the-option-strike. 1990–91 had a clear military resolution path that markets could underwrite. This episode has repeatedly invalidated neat base cases. That is why a three-day drop can coexist with gold holding 4400 and 10-year yields still at 5%. Macro structure. Oil at or above 100 feeds goods inflation into the US, euro area, and Japan at once. That is why the Fed hiked, why ECB officials talk October, and why the BOJ statement flags Middle East oil as a risk to activity and prices. Term premium in Treasuries stays supported when energy is a multi-quarter problem and coupon supply cannot all hide in bills at a roughly 22% bill share. Gold’s resilience with nominal yields at 5% tells you the hedge demand is fiscal and geopolitical, not a bet on imminent cuts. Intermarket. Soft oil and flat dollar should, in a clean model, pressure gold. It did not break. Soft oil and a hiking Fed should pressure equities; the S&P still eked out a gain while the Dow and Russell lagged. That dispersion fits a market that sells inflation-sensitive cyclicals and still bids scarcity and AI. It does not fit all-clear on energy. Take: I treat sub-101 WTI as a pause in the premium, not a thesis change, until Hormuz traffic and Saudi export routes look normal for more than a news cycle. Watch 100 as the line bulls defend and 105 as the level that reloads inflation trades. For gold, 4350–4400 is the first real test of the geopolitical bid; a break there with yields rising would say the hedge is fading. What flips the view: verified reopening of the strait at scale, or a new hit that takes usable Saudi capacity offline again. Until then, three-digit oil remains a constraint on central banks, not a closed chapter.

Feels like two back-to-back red weeks ahead. Saturday thoughts.

Clear setup outside your session window is still a skip. If you take it because it looks clean, you rewrote the plan mid trade. Missing variable is whether clean still beats the clock you wrote before the open.

A green equity board after Fed day is covering, not a blessing from the FOMC The morning strip is doing what post-FOMC boards often do. S&P 500 near 7637.76, up 1.14%. Nasdaq near 26418.30, up 1.69%. West Texas Intermediate near 101.91, up 0.51%. Gold near 4399.70, up 0.28%. The Markets Wrap title put it cleanly: stocks and bonds rose after the Fed-day drop as oil fell. Translate that out of headline language. The Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September and published a SEP median funds rate of 4.1% for the end of this year. Equities sold the hawkish package, then bounced when the event was over. That is positioning, not a new growth boom announced by the Committee. Oil near $102 still matters more for the macro story than a one-day Nasdaq tick. Three-digit crude keeps inflation sticky in the places the Fed cares about, and it keeps the energy impulse alive in Europe and the US alike. Gold near $4,400 after a hike is the other tell. If the only story were higher real yields and a happy dollar forever, bullion would not still be camping at these levels. Something in the inflation-and-geopolitics mix is still paying for the hedge. I do not need a morality play about “soft landing” or “hard landing” for this board. I need the sequence: hike, drop, bounce. The bounce can continue if yields stay orderly near 4.94% on the 10-year and oil stops scaring people. The bounce can fail if crude re-accelerates or if the Fed’s 4.1% median starts to look too low against the next inflation prints. For levels, keep it plain. On equities, the Fed-day low is the reference, not the cheerleading around a +1% session. On oil, $100 is the sentiment line everyone already watches. On gold, holding the post-hike bid near $4,400 says the market has not decided inflation anxiety is finished. My take is boring on purpose. Respect the clean-up. Do not confuse it with permission to ignore a Fed that just hiked and still dots another move.

Whenever someone tells you this will be the next Bitcoin and starts showing you comparisons, that tells me they are selling you the stuff in a limited range and you are buying their limit sell orders. Current example zcash:native

BESTIES I DONT CARE WHAT UR FAV CT GURU IS SAYING RN WE R LITERALLY DUMPING NO CAP 📉 LIKE + FOLLOW FOR THE REAL TEA!!!

If you are hedging this week, you should sell everything and enter the market next Monday for crypto.

Thoughts of the day Yesterday I parked size until BE or speak forces it, with Wednesday still live. Same skeleton this morning. Process first. Tuesday Melbourne. The FOMC box is open. I do not invent a ticket into the decision window. I still hear hike. Remit is 2%. Hot monthly core and oil near 100 thickened the cushion. Futures treat Wednesday as near-certain, high 80s into ~90. Speak can still sound one-and-done. Overnight cash has not jumped with the words. EFFR still about 3.63. Last SOFR still pinned near IORB. Rates: Monday official 10y about 4.97. Real about 2.60. Breakeven still about 2.37. Words mean hike. Chart says do not size. Still not 2.6–3.0. Labour still a cushion. Still light. Plumbing: RRP still a scrap near 1.4bn. TGA rebuilding into the tax date. Not the lead. Tape: DXY firm near 99.4. Euro soft into the mid-1.15s. Yen around 154, still well off 160. Gold gave back toward ~4300. Bitcoin about 77k. SPX last cash near 7657. VIX mid-teens. Credit still tight, HY near 2.65. Oil holds around 100. What works: hot inflation with hike odds locked into Wednesday. Firm reals next to a dollar bid. Yen still away from the lid. What's messy: BE asleep while futures treat Wednesday as live. Gold softer with reals at 2.60 fits better than yesterday’s firmer gold. Dollar firm but not screaming through 100. Conflict still cuts size. So I wait. Same as yesterday. Wednesday is live. I respect the hike path. I still do not size until BE or speak forces it. Light.

Adding shorts into a rip at the range high puts you with trapped exits. Wait for fail back inside then underside reject. Size the reclaim not their cover. Invalidate above the spike. No demand confluence means skip the primary target.

As of this moment everyone is net long the market bro, someone will need insurance.

Look, I think the Clarity Act will fail, and if it fails we go for next year, which exactly aligns with the cycle and major macro. But no harm hedging yourself with a few call options if you're dicey.