HTX Research

📢 HTX Research 本周加密市场前瞻： 1. FOMC 决议：重点不在“是否加息”，而在 12 月会不会继续加 美联储将在本周三公布最新利率决议，市场目前普遍预计本次会议维持利率不变，10 月再次加息的概率已经降至较低水平。真正需要关注的是，美联储如何评价当前通胀、油价和经济增长，以及是否继续为 12 月加息保留空间。当前市场对 12 月再次加息仍有较高预期，因此主席会后的表态很可能比本次利率决定本身更重要。对于加密市场而言，如果美联储释放更强的鹰派信号，美元和美债收益率可能重新上行，并对 BTC 形成直接压力。 2. 科技巨头财报：AI 交易进入真正的“回报率验证”阶段 本周是本轮美股财报季最密集的一周之一，Alphabet 和 Microsoft 将于周三公布业绩，Amazon 则在周四公布财报。市场关注点已经从“AI 投资是否继续增长”，转向这些巨额资本开支能否真正转化为收入、利润和现金流。此前 Meta 的高额 AI 支出已经引发市场对资本效率的担忧，因此本周几家头部公司的指引可能直接决定 AI 交易是重新走强，还是进入更深层次的估值调整。对加密市场而言，科技股仍然是全球风险偏好的重要锚，如果 AI 板块继续承压，BTC 和高 Beta 加密资产通常也难以完全脱离这一风险环境。 3. PCE、GDP 与油价：通胀压力是否真正开始缓解 本周四将同时公布美国三季度 GDP 初值和 9 月 PCE 数据，其中 PCE 仍然是美联储最重视的通胀指标之一。与此同时，布伦特原油目前仍在 110 美元以上运行，虽然本周初有所回落，但此前中东局势已经再次推高能源价格和通胀预期。更值得关注的是，10 年期美债收益率目前已经回落至 5%附近，如果 PCE 温和、油价继续回落，长期利率可能进一步缓解，从而改善风险资产的流动性环境；反之，如果通胀数据再次偏强，当前这轮利率回落很可能只是暂时修正。 #HTX #Crypto

📢 HTX Research's Weekly Crypto Market Forecast (27 Oct): 1. FOMC Decision: The Focus Is Not Whether the Fed Hikes, but Whether Another Hike Comes in December The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, with markets widely expecting rates to remain unchanged and the probability of an October hike having fallen to relatively low levels. The real focus will be on how the Fed assesses inflation, oil prices and economic growth, and whether it keeps the door open for another rate hike in December. With markets still pricing in a relatively high probability of a December hike, the Fed Chair’s post-meeting remarks could prove more important than the rate decision itself. For crypto, stronger hawkish signals could push the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields higher again, putting direct pressure on BTC. 2. Big Tech Earnings: The AI Trade Faces Its Real Return-on-Investment Test This week is one of the busiest of the U.S. earnings season, with Alphabet and Microsoft reporting on Wednesday, followed by Amazon on Thursday. Market attention has shifted from whether AI investment will continue growing to whether massive capital expenditures can translate into actual revenue, profits and cash flow. Meta’s heavy AI spending has already raised concerns about capital efficiency. As a result, guidance from these major technology companies could determine whether the AI trade regains momentum or enters a deeper valuation correction. For crypto, technology stocks remain a key barometer of global risk appetite. If the AI sector continues to face pressure, BTC and high-beta crypto assets are unlikely to remain fully insulated from the broader risk environment. 3. PCE, GDP & Oil Prices: Is Inflation Pressure Finally Easing? The U.S. will release its preliminary Q3 GDP figures and September PCE data on Thursday, with PCE remaining one of the Fed’s most closely watched inflation indicators. Meanwhile, Brent crude continues to trade above $110. Although prices have eased slightly early this week, tensions in the Middle East have already pushed energy prices and inflation expectations higher again. More importantly, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has retreated to around 5%. If PCE comes in relatively soft and oil prices continue to decline, long-term yields could ease further, improving liquidity conditions for risk assets. Conversely, another upside inflation surprise could suggest that the recent decline in Treasury yields is merely a temporary correction. #HTX #Crypto

📢 HTX Research's Weekly Crypto Forecast: 1. Tech Earnings: A Key Stress Test for the AI Trade U.S. earnings season enters a critical stage this week, with Meta, Tesla, Netflix and other major tech companies set to report. The Nasdaq fell around 4.5% last week, while the semiconductor sector dropped more than 10%, as concerns intensified over the scale of AI investment, corporate debt and returns on capital in a high-rate environment. (Reuters) The focus this week is therefore no longer just whether revenue and earnings beat expectations, but whether tech giants continue to raise AI capex and whether those investments are translating into actual profits. For crypto, further cooling in the AI trade could weaken risk appetite in tech stocks and spill over into BTC and high-beta crypto assets. 2. Oil & Long-Term Treasury Yields: Is Inflation Pressure Really Easing? Brent crude briefly approached $110 last week, as Middle East tensions and risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returned as major drivers of global asset prices. Oil has since eased to around $107 early this week, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen to approximately 5.09%, temporarily easing concerns over inflation and further rate hikes. (Reuters) However, both oil prices and long-term yields remain elevated. The key question is whether the recent pullback is merely a short-term correction or the beginning of an unwind in the “high oil, high inflation, high rates” environment. For BTC, further declines in oil prices and long-term yields would improve the macro liquidity backdrop, while another surge in long-term rates remains one of the most important external risks. 3. Continued BTC & ETH ETF Outflows: When Will Institutional Selling Finally Ease? Persistent ETF weakness remains one of the most important internal signals for the crypto market. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $228 million in net outflows last week, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw around $320 million in net outflows, with ETH experiencing withdrawals across several consecutive trading sessions. (SatoshiNakamoto.TV) More notably, Bitcoin ETFs had already recorded approximately $679 million in net outflows the previous week, indicating that institutional demand has yet to return as a stable source of buying. If BTC stabilizes and ETF flows return to sustained net inflows this week, conditions would become more supportive of a lasting recovery. If outflows continue, however, it would suggest that crypto remains in a risk-reduction phase and that the sustainability of any rebound should be viewed cautiously. #HTX #Crypto

📢 HTX Research 本周加密市场前瞻： 1. 科技巨头财报：AI 交易迎来关键压力测试 本周美股财报季进入关键阶段，Meta、Tesla、Netflix 等科技公司将陆续公布业绩。上周纳斯达克下跌约 4.5%，半导体板块跌幅超过 10%，市场开始明显担忧 AI 投资规模、企业负债以及高利率环境下的资本回报。(Reuters) 因此，本周财报关注的重点已经不只是收入和利润是否超预期，更重要的是科技巨头是否继续提高 AI 资本开支，以及这些投入能否兑现为实际盈利。对于加密市场而言，如果 AI 交易进一步降温，科技股风险偏好的收缩很可能继续向 BTC 和高 Beta 加密资产传导。 2. 油价与长端美债：通胀压力是否出现真正缓解 上周布伦特原油一度升至 110 美元附近，中东局势和霍尔木兹海峡运输风险重新成为全球资产定价的重要变量。本周初油价有所回落至 107 美元附近，10 年期美债收益率也降至约 5.09%，短期缓解了市场对通胀和进一步加息的担忧。(Reuters) 但目前油价和长期利率仍处于明显高位，市场真正需要确认的是，这轮回落究竟只是短期修正，还是此前“高油价、高通胀、高利率”组合开始松动。对 BTC 而言，如果油价继续回落并带动长端收益率下行，将明显改善宏观流动性环境；反之，长端利率重新冲高仍是当前最重要的外部风险之一。 3. BTC、ETH ETF 持续流出：机构资金何时真正止血 过去两周，加密市场最值得重视的内部信号仍然是 ETF 资金持续偏弱。上周美国现货比特币 ETF 合计净流出约 2.28 亿美元，现货以太坊 ETF 净流出约 3.20 亿美元，其中 ETH 已连续多个交易日出现资金撤离。(SatoshiNakamoto.TV) 更值得注意的是，比特币 ETF 前一周已经净流出约 6.79 亿美元，说明当前机构资金仍未重新形成稳定买盘。本周如果 BTC 能够企稳，同时 ETF 资金重新转为连续净流入，市场才更有条件形成持续反弹；如果资金继续撤出，则说明当前加密市场仍处于去风险阶段，反弹的持续性需要保持谨慎。 #HTX #Crypto