There's so much speculation about AI's future, that we lose sight of what it is today, an extremely cheap and powerful coding tool. And that is a great great thing.
I love OP and no likey Capitalism, but disagree here. Capitalism loves shared experiences. Easier to market Thriller than 100 niche bands. AI enables micro-genres because the cost to produce is so low. Cheaper inputs=more diverse outputs.
This is crazy good.
I'll say it again for the AI risk experts in the back:
We've already run a real life, large scale experiment on what happens when a superintelligence is unleashed on a narrow objective.
Look no further than U.S. capital markets.
Millions of investors, analysts, traders and algorithms, backed by trillions of dollars and wired together through prices, all chasing one goal: the highest risk-adjusted return on capital.
And it is spectacularly good at its job. It funds the best ideas, punishes the worst ones, and turns new information into prices faster than any of us can react. No individual can out-think it. 99+ percent of professionals can't beat it.
But look at what else it's done along the way:
- Optimized the measure instead of the intent. Quarterly earnings became the scoreboard, so companies learned to manage the scoreboard.
- Treated anything without a price as free. Pollution, addiction, obesity, depression, political fragmentation, fragile supply chains, the long-term health of the communities it operates in.
- Found every gap in the rules, then paid lobbyists to help write the next set and pull up the ladder behind incumbents.
- Remade the world around its objective. Companies, pension funds and our retirement accounts now answer to the S&P 500.
- Made itself impossible to switch off, because everything else now depends on it.
None of this required malice. Nobody sat in a room and chose these outcomes. It's simply what a very capable optimizer does when its objective is a narrow proxy for what we actually care about.
And note that we never solved this alignment problem. We've managed it, imperfectly, with regulation, taxes, disclosure rules and the occasional crisis to show us where the guardrails were missing. Over time, the market has captured the instutions designed to constrain it. We've been at it the better part of a century, and the misalignment is the worst it's ever been.
So the next time someone tells you AI is only dangerous if it "wants" something bad, or if its goals are mis-specified, point them at the S&P 500. It doesn't want anything. It just optimizes.
That's the whole problem.
Books! These are not in order except JJ who is my favorite author and also the one that (sadly) convinced me not to become a writer.
Difficult list to make like the TV shows. Should be more recent albums and more rap but it didn’t work out that way.
Hon mention: YMO Naughty Boys, St Vincent Masseduction, Kendrick Damn, Kanye My dark twisted fantasy, Beatles anything 66-68.
I think Baby Reindeer and The Rehearsal get punished (maybe fairly) for being only 1 or 2 seasons on NYT list. Andor/Girls/6Feet/Fleabag could replace those two on my list if I'm being hyper objective. Halt at 96 is criminal.
This 2nd point is very true. The "dumbest" conclusions I've heard have always been from the "smartest" people I know. Dumb people are used to be wrong and don't have as much pride in their opinions. Good mental habits aren't well correlated with smarts imo.
Listened to an EA-adjacent AI safety expert from Redwood Research on podcast, and you come away with 2 obvious realizations.
1. The current working theories for how AI takes control of civilization are...for lack of a better word...ridiculous. The arguments consist of dozens of contingent assumptions held together by made up probabilities assigned to future states nobody can possibly know. Change just one variable and the whole web of doom unravels.
That's not to say AI is harmless. Obviously a technology this powerful carries real risks. But if we’re going to accept extraordinary claims about human extinction (and then make major policy decisions around them) we should demand extraordinary rigor.
2. It’s a great reminder that the genius is no less prone to delusion than the midwit. If anything, they may be more prone because of their gift for rationalizing to their own conclusions.
And that’s what’s so bizarre about this whole debate. You have outlandish, quasi-religious claims delivered with an air of inevitability, and somehow the perceived intelligence of the messenger gets mistaken for evidence that the arguments themselves are sound. At a certain point, it’s really no different from Tom Cruise talking your ear off about thetans...
I love AI but this is the exact same category as the “Self made man” post who in graph 7 reveals his 650k loan from Jeff Bezos’ college roomate.
Claude has discovered a previously unknown enzyme system hidden in the DNA of bacteriophages. Beside the enzyme’s gene sits a long array of repeating DNA—a structure that looks somewhat similar to CRISPR.
We don’t yet understand what this system does, but only a handful of known systems share its features, and all of them are able to cut, copy, and paste DNA. Historically, the discovery of such programmable systems has helped revolutionize medicine. CRISPR, for instance, is now the foundation of genetic medicines. But it will take much more work to learn what this system does, and whether it can be put to similar use.
Read more: anthropic.com/news/claude-di…
They are too lazy to read, and once you acknowledge wisdom in the ancients, you are forced to book up lest you reveal a large Achilles heel.
So everyone before yesterday was a fool, thus say the X sages.
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This is some extremely high level psychological understanding of another human being.
Brian Hacker retweeted
A lot of people think the U.S. is uniquely bad or corrupt, but it's not. Neoliberalism is a global disease among all elites, which is why the UN is letting Sam Altman explain to the security council members how to address the risks of Sam Altman. garymarcus.substack.com/p/br…
Bingo
Replying to @matthewstoller
To put it differently, making AI safe is the same problem as cutting fossil fuels. Discipline the powerful to force them to invest in safety.
But we have a harder time conceiving of the rule of law applying to the powerful than bots taking over human civilization.
Could not agree more with this. Could not have put it better myself.
Replying to @matthewstoller
All of the 'ZOMG AI is going to destroy the world' theories are simply observations of problems that result from the fact that we don't govern. They aren't AI-specific. But since none of these people pay attention to governance, actual social risk is new to them.
Oh my god! I want to Norway, and you know what? They say it’s a Socialist country, but like they have Starbucks there! Hello!! Like Marx would totally love a Carmel Frappuccino if he lived now!
America’s democratic socialists are obsessed with the Nordic model. The problem? These countries aren’t socialist, writes @mj_koch.
Read more: on.wsj.com/4wPtTGe






















