Haenco🔋 retweeted
יש כאן שאלה טובה מאוד שאני רוצה להפוך לציוץ נפרד -
״למה בחלק מהרחובות יש בלגן אטומי וברחובות ליד (שבהן יש חנויות טובות לביזה) אין כלום?״
התשובה די פשוטה: הפאטרן הזה של איזורים שבהם יש ביזה נרחבת ואיזורים ממש ליד שאין בהם כלום הוא סימפטום של העובדה שעבודת הונדליזם והביזה היא עבודה מקצועית, מתוכננת ומתוזמרת מראש.
ואני אסביר:
מה שמאפיין את כל ההתפרעויות בצרפת עד כה, כמו ניצחון סן ז׳רמן, ״חג המוזיקה״ וכו׳ הוא ה״הרסנות הספונטנית״ שנוצרת על ידי הגעה של המונים של אנשים מהפרוורים הקשים אל תוך הערים הגדולות בעיקר בשעות הערב - בחסות העלטה ובחסות המון גדול שזורם ברחובות - קל מאוד לבצע מעשי ונדליזם ושוד שלמשטרה קשה להבחין בהם עד שכבר ״מאוחר מדי״ או לפחות, זה מאפשר מספיק זמן פעולה קריטי לפני שכוחות משטרה יכולים להגיע למקום. בגלל זה, הצורה של איזורי השוד במקרים האלה תמיד היתה חופפת לצירי ההתקדמות של ההמון.
אתמול קרה דבר שונה בתכלית.
היו צירי תנועה של הפגנות שאושרו על ידי רשויות המשטרה, היו מעט התפרעויות שבוצעו גם לאורך צירים אלה אבל אלו היו בעיקר התפרעויות ספונטניות רגילות ולא מאורגנות.
**רוב הנזק** בוצע באיזורים **רחוקים יחסית** מההפגנות והוא בוצע בצורה מאורגנת בשיטה חכמה מאוד - קודם כל, צוותים מיומנים ערמו בריקדות סביב סקטור מסויים. בריקדות שלא נתקלו בשום התנגדות משטרתית כי פשוט המשטרה לא היתה שם כי היא היתה עסוקה באיבטוח הציר של ההפגנות המורשות.
אחרי שהבריקדות הוקמו, בדרך כלל הן גם הוצתו. אבל לא רק הבריקדות הוצתו אלא גם הוצתו מספר מוקדים בסמוך כמו מכוניות או חזיתות של בתי עסק, דלתות עץ וכו׳. המטרה היתה שתושבים יתקשרו למכבי האש שישלחו ניידות כיבוי אש שתאלצנה למשוך מים מברזי ההסנקה ולכוון את מאמצי הכיבוי למספר מוקדים [בד״כ בצומת] מה שמייצר דה-פקטו - חסימה יעילה של צירי התנועה - מעבר לבריקדות הבוערות עצמן.
מהרגע הזה, הבוזזים היו חופשיים בעצם לשבור באין מפריע את חזיתות החנויות שעיניינו אותם. העניין הוא שהם גם ״עמדו בזמנים״ לפי הדיווחים, שעת ה-ש׳ היתה 16:30. - כשאתה בוזז בתוך סקטור ״מאובטח״ ע״י בריקדות בוערות וניידות כיבוי שמתחילות לזרום *רחוק* מצירי ההפגנות וכשכל הביזה מתרחשת סימולטנית - גם כוח משטרה של מאות אלפי שוטרים - לא יצליח להגיע במהירות (על ידי סיורים רכובים או טרנזטים - כי הצירים סגורים) או לזרום בזמן בריצה לכל אתרי הביזה כדי לעצור אותה.
זה מה שבעצם מוכיח שמדובר היה בהתארגנות מקצועית עם יד מכוונת וצוותים ממושמעים. על מי נופל החשד? על הצוותים המיומנים של אנטיפה ואירגוני שמאל רדיקליים אחרים, כולל ״מוחים מקצועיים״ שמגיעים מחו״ל. על אנשי ״צרפת הבלתי נכנעת״ של מלנשון ועל סוכנים של רוסיה הפוטינסקית. [זוכרים את מגיני הדוד הכחולים שצוירו על בתים של יהודים מיד אחרי ה-7 בספטמבר? את בית הכנסת שנצבע בירוק? את סימני הידיים האדומות על האנדרטה לזכר השואה? את החבלה במערכות הכוונת הרכבות לפני המשחקים האולימפיים? - כל אלו הוכחו כפעולות חבלה רוסיות].
המודוס אופרנדי הזה הוא גם מה שמסביר את ה״פליאה״ בקרב אנשי בובו [השמאל הבורגני הצרפתי] שמצייצים ציוצים בסגנון ״על איזה מהומות מדברים אני גר פה בפריז והרחוב שלי מלא חנויות ושקט״. כן כפרה. אתה לא באיזור שטורגט מראש על ידי מארגני ה״מחאה״. ולכן ״לא הבחנת בכלום״.
Haenco🔋 retweeted
J’ai entendu dire que la France était finie, qu’il était trop tard pour la sauver.
Mais la France est toujours aussi belle, enviable même. Sa grandeur n’a pas disparu, elle ne demande qu’à renaître.
Nous avons surmonté en un an un problème cent fois plus grave, sans avoir les moyens dont dispose la France.
La France pourrait y arriver en une semaine.
Haenco🔋 retweeted
Dear Secretary Bessent @SecScottBessent,
My name is Everett Stern. In 2010 I was a compliance officer at @HSBC. From a back office in New Castle, Delaware, I watched billions of dollars move to drug cartels, sanctioned regimes, and terrorist organizations. The enemies of the United States. I documented it, I escalated it, and when the bank would not act, I took it to the @FBI, the @CIA, and eventually the @SECGov.
The result was a $1.92 billion settlement. At the time, it was one of the largest in American history. It was also about five weeks of the bank’s profit. Not one banker was charged. Not one went to prison.
I paid a different price. I lost my career, my savings, and my place in the industry I had trained for. I was blacklisted. Every door in American finance closed at once. I slept on a camping cot in a 300 square foot apartment because I could not afford a bed, and I waited tables at @PFChangs to eat. I tell you this not for sympathy, but so you understand that I know exactly what it costs to do the right thing in American finance, and exactly how little the system does in return.
I made that sacrifice because I believed it would change something.
Yesterday, your department fined @BankofAmerica $1.2 billion for failing to report more than $5 billion in suspicious transactions, some of it tied by your own findings to Chinese laundering networks, narcotics, and the southwest border, alongside 475 apparent sanctions violations touching Russia, Iran, and global terrorism. The bank admitted it willfully violated the Bank Secrecy Act.
Fourteen years after HSBC. A bank with “America” in its name. And once again, not one individual charged.
Secretary Bessent, I want to say plainly what I believe you already know. The fines are not working.
A fine is paid by shareholders, absorbed by the balance sheet, and forgotten by the next earnings call. Bank of America reported earnings this morning. Nobody who set the alert thresholds, nobody who decided the 2024 cease and desist could wait, nobody who chose the backlog over the law will lose a single thing they value. Their lives are untouched. That is the entire reason the behavior repeats.
This is money laundering. This is blood money. Money that reaches a cartel buys fentanyl that kills Americans. Money that reaches a terrorist organization buys the next attack. This country has fought a war on drugs and a war on terror for decades, at enormous cost in lives and treasure, and all the while we have allowed the financing to flow through institutions we charter and regulate. Cut off the money and we win. We have never seriously tried.
There is also a question of equal justice that I cannot let go.
Before I walked into the FBI building to report HSBC, I stopped in front of the Great Seal on the wall and read the words engraved beneath it: “Justice is the defense of our liberty.” I believed that. I still want to. But every day in this country, people go to prison for crimes that are nothing next to moving money for the people who want Americans dead. A suit, a title, and a corporate badge should not be a shield from the consequences that apply to everyone else. If a street dealer goes to prison for what he sells, the banker who moved the cartel’s money should be standing next to him.
I also want to raise something that is rarely said in these conversations. Why has no one inside Bank of America come forward the way I did? The answer is that everyone in American banking knows what happened to me, and to the whistleblowers who came after. The last person who spoke up is the only policy anyone believes. That is a culture problem, and it starts with leadership, in the banks and in the agencies that regulate them.
This is not a political issue. It has spanned administrations of both parties. It is a national security issue, and I am asking you to treat it as one.
Three things would change the math overnight.
Refer individuals for criminal prosecution. Not the analyst in the queue. The executives who set the thresholds and chose the risk. One banker in handcuffs would do more than every fine in Treasury’s history combined.
End “too big to jail.” An institution cannot be too big to fail and too big to jail at the same time. If it is the first, it must be held to a higher standard, not a lower one.
And if Bank of America will not act as America’s bank, review its charter. A national charter is a privilege granted on behalf of the American people. It should be conditioned on not moving money for the people trying to kill them.
Secretary Bessent, you said yesterday that these actions send a clear message that even the biggest institutions are not above the law. With respect, the institution was never the problem. The people inside it are above the law, and they know it. Until that changes, I will keep writing letters like this one, and the next bank will keep paying the next fine.
I gave up everything I had to stop this. I am asking you to use the power you have to finish it.
Respectfully,
Everett A. Stern
HSBC Whistleblower
Founder and Intelligence Director, Tactical Rabbit
Haenco🔋 retweeted
These NYC apartments are standing empty, not because the owners don't want to rent them, but because rent stabilization laws prohibit them from charging enough to earn back the costs of necessary repairs.
My latest for @WSJFreeEx
Haenco🔋 retweeted
Kleine Anekdote zum #Bundesverdienstkreuz:
Ich habe in den letzten Jahren zwei Personen für das Verdienstkreuz vorgeschlagen. Ich nenne keine Namen, weil Vorschläge, auch nach dem Verfahren, als vertraulich gelten:
Person 1 hat durch seine Zusammenarbeit mit den Sicherheitsbehörden und seiner Vernetzung mit ausländischen Geheimdiensten mehrere schwere Terroranschläge in Deutschland verhindert und lebt selbst unter höchste Bedrohungslage mit 24/7 bewaffnetem Personenschutz.
Person 2 arbeitet in einer Behörde und gehört zu den erfolgreichsten Bekämpfern von so genannter "Kinderpornographie". Er hat unzählige Pädokriminelle ins Gefängnis gebracht und tausende Kinder gerettet. Er setzt sich seit über 25 Jahren mit diesen Inhalten auseinander, auch wenn das eine unglaubliche Belastung ist. Er leistet etwas, was weit über seinen Job hinausgeht.
Beide Vorschläge wurden abgelehnt.
Haenco🔋 retweeted
>be me
>discover effective altruism
>apparently normal charity is inefficient
>why donate to random sad thing when spreadsheet can tell you optimal sad thing
>fair enough
>buy mosquito nets
>save lives
>numbers look good
>feel powerful
>couple years later
>someone asks an innocent question
>why only count people alive today
>huh
>future people matter too
>obviously
>my grandchildren shouldn't matter less just because they haven't spawned yet
>reasonable.jpg
>keep following logic
>what about their grandchildren
>also yes
>what about people in 500 years
>sure
>5000 years
>why not
>500 million years
>starting to get weird but morality is morality
>open calculator
>humanity could survive for an astronomically long time
>could colonize galaxy
>could have trillions upon trillions of descendants
>maybe digital people too
>maybe simulated civilizations
>maybe dyson spheres full of happy uploaded minds
>calculator starts smoking
>realize currently living humans are rounding error
>8 billion people suddenly looking extremely beta
>future contains potentially 10^something people
>can't even fit beneficiaries in google sheets
>new moral priority unlocked
>protect the long-term future
>stop thinking in units of "people helped"
>start thinking in "fraction of cosmic endowment preserved"
>malaria?
>terrible
>but only kills existing humans
>AI extinction could delete the entire light cone
>nuclear war could permanently derail civilization
>bad institutions could lock in terrible values for ten million years
>someone invents wrong constitution in 2140
>quadrillions suffer
>better fund governance workshop now
>friend says maybe we should improve hospitals
>explain opportunity cost
>friend says hospitals are full of actual sick people
>explain scope sensitivity
>friend stops inviting me to dinner
>need to decide what to fund
>easy
>expected value
>suppose project has one in a million chance of preventing extinction
>sounds tiny
>but extinction destroys 10^50 future lives
>multiply
>mother of god
>$10 million project has expected value of several galaxies
>charity evaluation complete
>someone asks where the one-in-a-million number came from
>expert judgement
>which expert
>us
>how calibrated
>extremely thoughtfully
>reduce estimate to one in ten million to be conservative
>still beats curing cancer by 38 orders of magnitude
>epistemic robustness achieved
>someone says maybe project doesn't work
>assign 20% chance
>still astronomical
>maybe project makes problem worse
>assign 5% chance
>still astronomical
>why 5
>because 30 felt pessimistic
>publish 46-page report
>contains seventeen sensitivity analyses
>every sensitivity analysis begins after assuming intervention has positive sign
>critic says you're multiplying enormous hypothetical stakes by extremely uncertain probabilities
>yes
>that's literally why it's important
>critic says the uncertainty might be structural rather than numerical
>make probability smaller
>critic says no, I mean maybe your model is wrong
>make probability smaller again
>critic begins rubbing temples
>discover AI safety
>perfect longtermist cause
>AI might kill everyone
>or create utopia
>or seize galaxy
>or tile universe with paperclips
>or create billions of conscious software minds
>finally a problem with numbers big enough for me
>start AI safety nonprofit
>mission: prevent dangerous AI
>hire smartest people available
>smartest people immediately start building better AI to understand dangerous AI
>interesting
>we must understand capabilities to understand safety
>we must scale models to study alignment
>we must race ahead so less responsible actors don't get there first
>we must deploy systems to learn how deployment can go wrong
>we must build the thing quickly because building the thing quickly is dangerous
>outsider asks why the people most worried about AI apocalypse all work at AI companies
>complicated field
>company releases stronger model
>very concerned
>company begins training even stronger model
>extremely concerned
>company raises $14 billion
>concern reaches unprecedented levels
>need to influence government
>future is at stake
>normal democratic process too slow
>politicians don't understand exponential curves
>public doesn't understand x-risk
>experts must guide them
>who counts as expert
>people who understand x-risk
>who understands x-risk
>our friends
>someone objects that this seems politically convenient
>explain we're representing future generations
>future generations unavailable for comment
>develop concept of value lock-in
>terrifying possibility that one ideology controls civilization forever
>therefore extremely important that civilization adopts correct values before lock-in
>whose values
>let's circle back
>begin with impartial morality
>end with small group of people deciding what quadrillions of hypothetical beings would want
>beautiful arc
>meanwhile actual humans keep doing annoying things
>voting wrong
>having parochial attachments
>loving family more than strangers
>caring about local community
>getting upset when told their suffering is cosmically negligible
>evolutionary biases everywhere
>explain that moral intuition cannot be trusted
>except intuition that future digital people count
>and intuition that extinction is uniquely bad
>and intuition that our probability estimates are sane
>and intuition that our institutional choices improve the future
>those intuitions survived peer review
>someone donates $5k to local homeless shelter
>inefficient
>could have funded 0.0000000000003% of an AI governance researcher
>think of all the simulated people you just killed
>okay maybe don't phrase it that way publicly
>PR team says "future generations deserve a voice"
>much better
>journalist asks what longtermism means
>say "future people matter"
>everyone agrees
>great
>journalist asks what follows from that
>well technically we should redirect enormous resources toward low-probability interventions affecting astronomical futures
>journalist raises eyebrow
>return to "future people matter"
>motte has entered the chat
>critic: of course future people matter
>me: glad we agree
>critic: I don't agree that your institute knows how to help them
>me: why do you hate our grandchildren
>eventually notice uncomfortable implication
>if future value dominates everything
>then helping people today mostly matters through effects on future
>education matters because future institutions
>health matters because future productivity
>democracy matters because future trajectory
>human beings slowly become instrumental variables in their own moral philosophy
>see starving child
>feel compassion
>check spreadsheet
>child's direct welfare contribution negligible
>but perhaps childhood nutrition improves national institutional quality
>compassion restored
>tell myself this is impartial altruism
>one day assistant asks obvious question
>"how do you know your intervention actually improves the far future?"
>silence
>open spreadsheet
>increase column width
>add confidence interval
>assistant asks again
>"no, I mean how do you know the sign is positive?"
>stare into cosmic light cone
>10^50 people staring back
>none of them exist
>none of them can tell me
>none of them can falsify my assumptions
>realize I have invented the perfect constituency
>infinitely important
>completely silent
>and always represented by me
Haenco🔋 retweeted
Dario, if you really want to slow things down at Anthropic, hire some German politicians
Haenco🔋 retweeted
Egal ob Bäcker o. Bafin-regulierter Manager: in diesem #EU Bürokratie Shithole kannst du weder tätig sein, noch investieren. Was eine Farce u. Schikane wenn man diesem jungen Mann aus einem Familienbetrieb zuhört. Ein Wahnsinn, der nur durch 100.000+ sesselfurzende Brüsseler Beamten entstehen kann.
#afuera #eu #bürokratie #euro #vllc #bäckereijanssen #brüssel #vonderleyen #auswandern #steuern @thinkBTO
Haenco🔋 retweeted
If you think AI will lead to human extinction by 2030, I will take that bet. If we are still alive by Dec 31, 2030, you pay me 1M USD. If not, I will pay you 10M USD.
Haenco🔋 retweeted
This is how I'd build a TRUMP DIVIDEND HOME GYM with $5,000:
1. Squat Rack: $990 Mikolo M10 All-in-1 (rack, functional trainer, smith machine, storage)
2. Bench: $349 REP AB-3000 2.0 FID
3. Dumbbells: $649 MX Select EVO MX70's (upgradeable to 100lbs. Quick change)
4. Barbell: $225 Rogue Ohio Power Bar (Boneyard bar for extra savings)
5. Weight Plates - $1,100 465lb Strength Co Set (go 2nd hand for less. These will last centuries.)
6. Air Bike - $699 Titan Fan Bike
7. Multi-unit: $399 NordBench Pro (back ext, nordic curl, dip, sissy squat, slant board, and added leg ext/curl)
8. Gymnastics rings - $28 GHB Wood Rings
9. Flooring: $40 Tractor Supply Horse Stall Mats
10. Kettlebell: $299 Freak Athlete Adjustable KB (26-70lbs)
Total: $4,778
This gives you an extremely capable, long-lasting home gym you can use for decades. You also have money left over to add additional mats or plates.
.@POTUS announces the TRUMP DIVIDEND: If Republicans win both the House and the Senate, because of our tremendous economic success, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States for $5,000
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The President of the United States has no constitutional or statutory authority to issue a dividend check on behalf of the US Government. Only the Congress can authorize and appropriate these funds.
constitutioncenter.org/the-constituti…
Haenco🔋 retweeted
⚠️Hoy vamos a tirar casi 60.000 MWh de energía renovable porque no la podemos integrar en el sistema eléctrico.
Tiraremos 25.000 MWh eólicos y 32.000 MWh fotovoltaicos.
En lo que va de año, hemos tirado ya 8.105 GWh solares, equivalentes al consumo de 2 millones de hogares 😱
#CSD komplette Chatüberwachung aber man kann kein Fahndungsfoto teilen. Datenschutz ... Achso
Ein Foto finden Sie unter folgendem Link: berlin.de/polizei/polizeimel…
Aus datenschutzrechtlichen Gründen können wir dies nicht direkt auf Social Media teilen.
Haenco🔋 retweeted
America’s defense runs on power that cannot fail.
At @SenMcCormickPA's Defense and Innovation Summit, @POTUS announced Eos has been awarded a Golden Dome for America contract, stating "Eos in Pittsburgh just agreed to a multi-million dollar partnership with the Department of War to build energy storage technology in support of our Golden Dome missile defense."
This strategic partnership with the Department of War strengthens the energy backbone of America's defense and is structured to scale as national defense needs evolve.
Read the full press release: investors.eose.com/news-rele…
