Hoagtastic

For his final two years in office, Trump is poised to see Democrats lead along the entire U.S.–Mexico border -- every US House member, at least one Senator, and every Governor. Only time in US history this has happened with the sole exception of 1938-1942.

WA-05 is definitely one to watch for an update tonight. Incumbent R Baumgartner is leading by 1,857 votes right now with 87,000 ballots estimated out in the blue counties vs. just 16,650 in the red rurals.

For all of the president’s bluster, we’ve been routinely holding free and fair elections in his second term in which his party’s candidates have often been getting clobbered, all without incident. A great tribute to the professionals who run our decentralized elections

In retrospect, “Pick another protein? I’d rather pick another senator” is probably the most impactful ad of the cycle.

President Trump's diesel fuel deal with Russia has faltered as multiple tankers have turned away from the US - FT One loaded tanker sailing from St. Petersburg changed its destination to Brazil, while two others are indicating they are open for orders.

Donald Trump was so angry at his breathtaking midterm defeat that he holed himself up in the dark with his ever-present aide, Natalie Harp, as the results rolled in. thedailybeast.com/white-hous…

Steve Kerr ended his media availability today, “What no questions on the election? I’m surprised.” “I'm disappointed because I was looking forward to that $5,000 check. … In fact, I was so excited about it that I spent it already.”

I wish markets would give credit to smart modelers and other experts when they deserve it. Traders have incentives to follow reliable information and skilled practitioners who actually know what they're doing. Which is good, but polls/models were in the driver's seat this time.

Colom leads with 43 votes this morning with a few precincts out. His lead should expand given what’s not yet in. There are also 15K provisionals - more than usual because of a massive purge by the Secretary of State using the Experian credit file. The provisionals will be “cured” and they will be mostly for Scott Colom who did, indeed, win this race despite a messy process.

unless something significant changes, we could be looking at the national average price of gasoline falling below $4/gal in the next week, while diesel could fall below $6 by Thanksgiving.

Google heard the outcry from parents, teachers, and the US Senate, who don’t want Gemini pushed into classrooms. AI causes cognitive offloading, encourages cheating on homework, and enables the possibility of forming human-like relationships with a chatbot. So Google responded: They are going to make Gemini an “opt-in” choice for each school district. Great! But then they attached a condition: if a school district does NOT turn on Gemini, then the students lose Google search, which is deeply woven into the fabric of education. This is coercion, not choice. Google can and should just restore what we all had before: Google search with no AI chatbot interaction or AI overviews. nytimes.com/2026/11/03/us/go…

I suspect Sam Alito retirement talk is over until at least after the 2028 election. He will be 78, Clarence Thomas will be 80, Sotomayor 74. Next prez could get 3 SCOTUS seats (!)

Fiscally conservative homeowner here. Question for my fellow Floridians who voted Yes on Amendment 3: Where is the replacement for that revenue going to come from?

I’ve seen enough: generational wipeout.