@HoldingLongi
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不参与政治。买跌幅超50%的好公司,FCF暴增加仓,并长久持有。Asset=Costco algorithm+Optimization machine.
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Joined April 2025
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年度预测$Hims revenue:
• 2026 年:29 亿美元(+23%,Q2加速)。
• 2027 年:37–40 亿美元(+28–38%,增长加速期)。
• 2028 年:47–52 亿美元(+25–30%,规模效应显现)。
• 2029 年:57–63 亿美元(+20–22%,持续多元化)。
• 2030 年:65–72 亿美元(+15–20%,略超管理层至少 65 亿目标)。
绝境长持X retweeted
Invertir en bolsa es la mejor, y prácticamente única opción, para la clase trabajadora, de salir de la carrera de la rata.
绝境长持X retweeted
孙大午这番高论垫底,判他18年冤不冤?黄仁勋、苏姿丰等硅谷精英的祖辈,如果不逃离大陆,最后辗转到了美国,有英伟达和AMD今天的辉煌吗?1)在美国端盘子,靠勤劳致富,难道很丢人?2)麦当劳、肯德基、星巴克不都是餐饮吗?创始人都不如孙大午精英?3)海外有很多华人科学家、工程师、银行家、医生、律师等;4)孙大午不读书不看报?不知道美国华人的学历和收入在当地“双高”?5)资产配置是企业家的基本修养,孙大午可谓一无所知。孙大午,如没减刑或特赦,出狱时大约84岁。
绝境长持X retweeted
$HIMS is on track or expected to generate more than $1B revenue by Q4 2026(important milestone) for a $6.8B MC (tiny)🫣😳
Yet @wearehims @ $29.42 is trading at
2-2.3x FY2026 P/S
1.45-1.6x FY2027 P/S
IMO HIMS deserves 15x+ P/S. This is just ridiculous that short sellers were able to get us down here.
Growth is re-accelerating, HIMS will also get back to
a strong recovery in Adjusted EBITDA margins by the end of the year, expecting to leverage their newly deployed AI-native care platform to drive structural operational efficiencies
2027 will look much better in term of profitability, margin and FCF generation.
Even as it gets back to more profitability in 2027, it is still a high growth / young business.
Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
$HIMS long term shareholders just realized Short sellers are abt to lose billions at $50-$70-$100-$150-$200.
Current Short Interest: 54,945,417 shares
Short Percent of Float: 26.69%
🐻better be ready!
Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
绝境长持X retweeted
$AMD at $630/share is dirt cheap on 0.1-0.6 PEG🧵
Not Financial Advice! DYOR! I do own AMD shares!
Projected FY2026 Revenue: $55-$60B ($57.5B Mid)
Net margin keeps rising with better operating leverage
PEG = (today’s price ÷ that year’s EPS) ÷ EPS CAGR from 2026.
2027 will have explosive YoY growth "well over 100%", which we can think of 120-140%. Fwd PE is in the 26-29x with 3 digits growth, that is cheap. And yes everyone is trying to project 2028-2029 growth RIGHT NOW. I'm sticking to my $800 Personal PT by end of 2026. AMD this week broke my old $620 PT.
This thread is more of average revenue growth projections for the next 3-5 years to judge its PEG Ratio. Less than 1 is mad cheap for @AMD growth and potential.
I believe 40-50% CAGR is very reasonable base case for AMD in the next 3-5 years. 60%+ is the bull case where AMD gets more TSMC allocation as #1 TSMC customer in term of WPM.
Dr. Su has been explicit that the old 1:4 / 1:8 CPU to GPU host ratio is moving toward 1–2:1, and that lots of agents could mean much more CPUs than GPUs. In recent discussion, people are talking abt 40 CPU : 1 GPU in extreme Agentic AI case. In a $META @Muse Consumer Agentic world, the most logical Ratio would be 8-12 CPU : 1 GPU IMO. Consumers are actually find AI Agents useful, and Muse is WINNING!
Projected GPUs market share FY2027 15-25%
CPUs market share will be in the 50%+ medium-long term.
Net Margin Path assumption, the advantage of Fabless:
40% case: 24% → 26% → 28% → 30% → 32% → 33%
50% case: 24% → 27% → 30% → 32% → 34% → 35%
60% case: 24% → 28% → 31% → 33% → 35% → 36%
Revenue > Net Income > EPS > PE > PEG
1. 40% revenue CAGR
2026: $57.5B, $13.8B NI, $8.31 EPS, 76x
2027: $80.5B, $20.9B NI, $12.61 EPS, 50x , PEG 0.97
2028: $113B, $31.6B NI, $19.01 EPS, 33x, PEG 0.65
2029: $158B, $47.3B NI, $28.51 EPS, 22x, PEG 0.44
2030: $221B, $70.7B NI, $42.58 EPS, 15x, PEG 0.29
2031: $309B, $102B NI, $61.48 EPS, 10x, PEG 0.21
2. 50% revenue CAGR
2026: $57.5B, $13.8B NI, $8.31 EPS, 76x
2027: $86.2B, $23.3B NI, $14.03 EPS, 45x, PEG 0.65
2028: $129B, $38.8B NI, $23.38 EPS, 27x, PEG 0.40
2029: $194B, $62.1B NI, $37.41 EPS, 17x, PEG 0.26
2030: $291B, $99.0B NI, $59.62 EPS, 11x, PEG 0.17
2031: $437B, $153B NI, $92.06 EPS, 7x, PEG 0.11
3. 60% revenue CAGR
2026: $57.5B, $13.8B NI, $8.31 EPS, 76x
2027: $92.0B, $25.8B NI, $15.52 EPS, 41x, PEG 0.47
2028: $147B, $45.6B NI, $27.49 EPS, 23x, PEG 0.28
2029: $236B, $77.7B NI, $46.82 EPS, 13x, PEG 0.17
2030: $377B, $132B NI, $79.45 EPS, 8x, PEG 0.10
2031: $603B, $217B NI, $130.76 EPS, 5x, PEG 0.07
=> 3 year PEG (2028)
40% 0.65 / 50% 0.40 / 60% 0.28
=>5 year PEG (2030)
40% 0.29 / 50% 0.17 / 60% 0.10
AMD may look like at a premium with TTM, but we are only more than a month away from Q3 Nov ER, where Q4, the first biggest J-curve quarter guidance will be issued.
Analysts, Investors and Institutions are fighting on where Q4 guidance is going to land. Otherwise if "they" just strictly judging AMD on TTM, AMD would just trade in the $300-$400 range at most.
I do not believe in outdated/old(TTM) data, market is forward looking. You may be able to buy stocks at a discount in businesses that have declining revenue/profitability or slower growth, but most will not get to buy high quality businesses when growth is ACCELERATING! Get it?
Not Financial Advice! DYOR! I do own AMD shares!
$AMD | The real reason why @AMD outperforming all Semis because it was misunderstood🧐🧵
AMD is still very underowned among Retail investors and Active Funds. Because they didnt take CPUs and GPUs share gain seriously.
AMD Is projected to get 15-25% GPU market share (FY2027) and Dr. Su aims for 50%+ for CPUs market share.
Not that long ago, months ago, AMD was the least owned Semi stock out of all Semi companies.
The real Institutional FOMO will be in November when we get Q3 ER where Q4 guidance is issued. AMD has some of the smallest public float or effective float. I dont want to hype u up, but there isn't much supply. Stock price appreciated so much since March because of this very reason.
I covered the most recent AMD Conference for subscribers in August and September 2026, where u get the lastest data. I said repeatedly in 2024-2025, we will see analysts upgrading weekly/monthly on AMD, and I was right.
AMD was mispriced for its potential, especially in the world of Inference and Agentic AI. Inference is now more than 60% of AI compute buildout vs training, and Inference is growing extremely FAST!
I will write a thread on AMD PEG Ratio later, and I believe this is more accurate to judge AMD vs Fwd PE or how we try to project different FY2027 EPS.
Alright that is it.
Not FInancial Advice! DYOR!
绝境长持X retweeted
$AMD shareholders just realized $630/share is cheap af in one picture $META @Muse
2 virtual CPUs on one EPYC Turin host chip
1 EPYC Venice (9996- 256 cores / 512 threads)
256 cores ÷ 2 vCPUs per Muse = 128 Muse VMs per Venice chip
1 current Turin ≈ 64 Muse users.
1 Venice ≈ 128 Muse users. Twice as many
Bears cannot stop @AMD here.
Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
绝境长持X retweeted
Replying to @MikeLongTerm @AMD
Why Wall Street thinks $AMD is biggest Consumers Agentic AI winner 🧵|
nitter.cf/MikeLongTerm/status/21…
Why Wall Street thinks $AMD is biggest Consumers Agentic AI winner 🧵|
$META @Muse $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL @AnthropicAI @OpenAI
Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
Consumer agentic AI is not another GPU story. A personal agent like Muse is a worker with a computer: a private VM, a real browser, files, logins, background jobs, and the ability to keep working after the user closes the app. The model still needs accelerators. The new demand spike is the army of small, always on computers those agents live in. That work runs on CPUs, and the company best built for it right now is @AMD .
The product that wins consumers is the agent that can use the world people already use websites, checkout, email, documents, and a long tail of software that was never rewritten for a new chip. That world still speaks x86. AMD’s high core EPYC parts add the other thing this workload cares about: thread density. One Venice class socket can run 256 cores and 512 threads, so a rack can host more agent sandboxes without waiting for software to be ported. $ARM can be slightly cheaper when a hyperscaler owns the guest image and only needs Linux plus its own browser. It is not a better consumer computer.
That is why the cleanest Wall Street call is not “all CPUs win equally.” UBS’s framework is the honest one: standalone agentic racks look more like 60% x86 and 40% ARM, and AMD is the x86 vendor in position to take the extra demand. Bank of America just raised AMD to a $720 target on the same idea, agentic work turns the CPU from a supporting actor into a growth engine, and AMD covers both the dense sandbox chip and the fast host next to a GPU. Intel benefits because it is the other x86 name, but it is not the leader.
That is why hyperscalers and AI labs cannot just scale consumer agentic on a pure ARM bill of materials. They will keep buying Graviton, Cobalt, Axion, Vera, and Arm AGI for orchestration, efficiency, and GPU-adjacent host nodes they fully control. The moment the agent has to live in a real sandbox compile code, drive a browser against live sites, run mixed tools, spawn thousands of concurrent VMs, they need the x86 density and software stack EPYC already ships. Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, and the clouds can mix architectures. They still have to add significant EPYC capacity (it is projected to be 50-60m units per year combined) if they want consumer agents that act like people on the open web, not only on a company built island.
That mix is why AMD is the biggest CPU winner because it has the product, the share gain flywheel, and a second engine. Server CPU revenue is already exploding, EPYC Venice is purpose built for agent concurrency, and Ryzen AI keeps AMD in the on device Windows PC where a consumer agent wants to touch local apps. On top of that, Instinct and Helios mean AMD is not betting the company on CPUs alone. When Meta, enterprises, and cloud buyers buy agent infrastructure, AMD can show up in the sandbox, the host node, and the accelerator tray.
Consumer agents multiply CPUs. The CPUs that can run the open consumer stack at massive concurrency are high thread x86. AMD is shipping that chip now, taking share, and pairing it with GPUs instead of praying the CPU cycle is the only cycle. If personal agents scale from a novelty to a default layer of the internet, AMD is the name that sits at the center of that buildout.
Dr. Lisa Su has been saying this out loud. On the earnings call she told analysts the old 1 to 4 or 1 to 8 CPU to GPU host ratio is moving toward 1-2 to 1, and “you can even imagine if you get lots and lots of agents that you could have more CPUs than GPUs.” At Advancing AI she went further: Venice “is actually designed for the agentic era,” and “EPYC is the only CPU portfolio that leads across all three” roles; GPU host, dense agent sandbox, and general purpose enterprise. Consumer agents multiply CPUs. The CPUs that can run the open consumer stack at massive concurrency are high thread EPYC. AMD is shipping that chip now.
Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
绝境长持X retweeted
Why Wall Street thinks $AMD is biggest Consumers Agentic AI winner 🧵|
$META @Muse $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL @AnthropicAI @OpenAI
Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
Consumer agentic AI is not another GPU story. A personal agent like Muse is a worker with a computer: a private VM, a real browser, files, logins, background jobs, and the ability to keep working after the user closes the app. The model still needs accelerators. The new demand spike is the army of small, always on computers those agents live in. That work runs on CPUs, and the company best built for it right now is @AMD .
The product that wins consumers is the agent that can use the world people already use websites, checkout, email, documents, and a long tail of software that was never rewritten for a new chip. That world still speaks x86. AMD’s high core EPYC parts add the other thing this workload cares about: thread density. One Venice class socket can run 256 cores and 512 threads, so a rack can host more agent sandboxes without waiting for software to be ported. $ARM can be slightly cheaper when a hyperscaler owns the guest image and only needs Linux plus its own browser. It is not a better consumer computer.
That is why the cleanest Wall Street call is not “all CPUs win equally.” UBS’s framework is the honest one: standalone agentic racks look more like 60% x86 and 40% ARM, and AMD is the x86 vendor in position to take the extra demand. Bank of America just raised AMD to a $720 target on the same idea, agentic work turns the CPU from a supporting actor into a growth engine, and AMD covers both the dense sandbox chip and the fast host next to a GPU. Intel benefits because it is the other x86 name, but it is not the leader.
That is why hyperscalers and AI labs cannot just scale consumer agentic on a pure ARM bill of materials. They will keep buying Graviton, Cobalt, Axion, Vera, and Arm AGI for orchestration, efficiency, and GPU-adjacent host nodes they fully control. The moment the agent has to live in a real sandbox compile code, drive a browser against live sites, run mixed tools, spawn thousands of concurrent VMs, they need the x86 density and software stack EPYC already ships. Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, and the clouds can mix architectures. They still have to add significant EPYC capacity (it is projected to be 50-60m units per year combined) if they want consumer agents that act like people on the open web, not only on a company built island.
That mix is why AMD is the biggest CPU winner because it has the product, the share gain flywheel, and a second engine. Server CPU revenue is already exploding, EPYC Venice is purpose built for agent concurrency, and Ryzen AI keeps AMD in the on device Windows PC where a consumer agent wants to touch local apps. On top of that, Instinct and Helios mean AMD is not betting the company on CPUs alone. When Meta, enterprises, and cloud buyers buy agent infrastructure, AMD can show up in the sandbox, the host node, and the accelerator tray.
Consumer agents multiply CPUs. The CPUs that can run the open consumer stack at massive concurrency are high thread x86. AMD is shipping that chip now, taking share, and pairing it with GPUs instead of praying the CPU cycle is the only cycle. If personal agents scale from a novelty to a default layer of the internet, AMD is the name that sits at the center of that buildout.
Dr. Lisa Su has been saying this out loud. On the earnings call she told analysts the old 1 to 4 or 1 to 8 CPU to GPU host ratio is moving toward 1-2 to 1, and “you can even imagine if you get lots and lots of agents that you could have more CPUs than GPUs.” At Advancing AI she went further: Venice “is actually designed for the agentic era,” and “EPYC is the only CPU portfolio that leads across all three” roles; GPU host, dense agent sandbox, and general purpose enterprise. Consumer agents multiply CPUs. The CPUs that can run the open consumer stack at massive concurrency are high thread EPYC. AMD is shipping that chip now.
Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
$AMD shareholders just realized there will be intense comeptition with $META @Muse from $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $AAPL @AnthropicAI @OpenAI to perform Agentic Tasks for consumers(B2C).
And @AMD has the best x86 CPUs to truly scale Consumers Agentic. The biggest Agentic AI use case at massive scale to generate Hyper Revenue growth for decades to come.
This is a massive AMD CPU shortage that most will likely see a bidding war. Meaning AMD will have
~Pricing power
~Margin Expansion
~Years of TAM & Market Share Capture and Expansion
~Even faster Revenue Growth
~ Much higher multi-year CAGR than what was projected just weeks ago
This is going to be fun!
AMD shareholders gonna do VERY WELL in the next 3-5 years!
Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
绝境长持X retweeted
$AMD shareholders just realized, if @AMD were to trade at $INTC's valuation or Fwd P/E of 65-100x, AMD would trade at $1,400-$2,200 per share.
BREAKING $AMD hit new ATH today and broke my $620 Old Personal Price Target 🚀🚀🚀
Disclaimer: I do not know or see the future. Just pure fundamental researches.
Im still keeping my personal PT on @AMD to $800 by end of 2026. 15-25% GPU market share in 2027 and biggest Agentic AI winner with superior CPUs(EPYC Venice)
If there are anything material change such as
~Massive deals with $GOOGL and $AMZN
~More CPU exclusive multi-year deals
~Massive increase from TSMC Allocation
I reserve the right to change my personal Price Target!
Congratz to all AMD OG shareholders.
For bears and short sellers that bet against me.
May be move on to other tickers that dont have my name on it.
Not FInancial Advice! DYOR!
Wonderful morning in New York! Honored to join @FLOTUS and @lynnmartin at @NYSE for the launch of IMPERIA, and to speak with @LizClaman about the future of AI and leadership. Great energy in the room and a thoughtful conversation.
绝境长持X retweeted
$AMD $PLTR $TSLA $XYZ $GRAB $HIMS $META $GOOGL $AMZN ... 😳🥱
$AMD: Mike just got lucky on this one
$PLTR: Mike just got lucky on this one
$TSLA: Mike just got lucky on this one
$XYZ: Mike just got lucky on this one
$HIMS: Mike just got lucky on this one
$META: Mike just got lucky on this one
$GOOGL: Mike just got lucky on this one
$AMZN: Mike just got lucky on this one
You know what bears gonna say next?
$GRAB : Mike just got lucky on this one
Am I that lucky all the time, all these years?
Spending 500-1000+ Hours on these businesses are also luck?
At some point, bears gotta give this up and stop betting against @MikeLongTerm.
Hedge funds lost tens of billions of dollars shorting my long term. This is why I prefer shares, where short sellers and bears have 0 impact on my duration. I DO NOT have an expiration date. Get it?
Again, I have 3 rules:
1. @MikeLongTerm do not get lucky
2. I know what I own
3. When stock is not moving, Read rule #1 again
And I don't offer Financial Advice!
Subcribers and Followers already know this!
$AMD $PLTR $TSLA $XYZ $GRAB $HIMS $META $GOOGL $AMZN ...
I'm very selective when it comes to long term winners.
Not all companies met all my ✅
But, before that, I put in 500-1000+ hours to study these businesses.
Most companies did not make it from the first 20-50 hours.
Then I find the "secret sauce", leadership and long term thesis.
I prefer strong and durable fundamental over hype, most of my long term were bought at extreme compressed valuation or ATL.
The combination of obsessive hours, secret sauce , founder/CEO quality, fortress balance sheet+ operating leverage, and refusal to sell winners is how I win versus typical growth or momentum screens.
And I dont sell winners!
Please do your own DD before buying/selling.
My risk tolerance and duration are different than yours
Sincerely,
MikeLongTerm
Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
绝境长持X retweeted
🚨 $HIMS HIRES SIMON PRENTICE AS DIRECTOR OF GROWTH, HERS UK
- Simon was previously Head of Growth and Growth Lead (Female Health) @ MANUAL for >4 yrs
- MANUAL is one of the largest telehealths in the UK
绝境长持X retweeted
I went long $AMD at $4.20 a decade ago because I believed chiplets would become the foundation of modern compute.
They did.
$IBRX gives me the same feeling today, but in biotech.
Anktiva isn’t just a fusion protein complex. It’s an operating system for the human immune system.
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绝境长持X retweeted
$AMD | You can ask any wall street anaylsts if 26-28x fwd P/E ($800) with 3 digits growth whether it is cheap or expensive.
I will give u a hint, it is cheap af. Do u think Tristan Gerra from Baird's Senior Research Analyst, a high ranking Wall Street Analyst just gave $1,250 PT just for fun?
Nobody cared about TTM. If AMD has a lower gwd Revenue and Earning growth like in the 20-30%, it would not trade at this price, most likely in the $300 range.
Only idiot bears talked about TTM or outdated data.
Market is FORWARD LOOKING!
Been this way for decades!
Keep it simple folks!
Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
If $AMD reaches my $800 Personal PT before Q3 ER or November, that would mean institutions expect $20B Q4 guidance from Q3 ER.
So roughly 100% YoY. As soon as Q4 guidance is out, even at $800, we would be looking at 26-28x Fwd PE.
Pretty reasonable fwd P/E for this kind of growth IMO.
It is going to be fun to watch folks arguing what I laid out in 2024-2025.
The CPU Ramp will start from Q4 2026, but Dr. Su will have to secure additional 30% more Wafers for CPUs to service $META @Muse .
CPU supply is so far behind that even if TSMC doubled CapEx - AI Labs, Enterprises and Hyperscalers would still be supply constrained.
Not Financial Advice! DYOR!