Chance

Derrick Henry O92.5 Rushing Yards👑 Henry opened the season with 144 yards on 24 carries, and Baltimore has every reason to keep feeding him. New Orleans just allowed Jahmyr Gibbs to go for 156 on the ground, so the workload and matchup both support another big rushing day.

De’Von Achane O56.5 Rushing Yards🐬 Achane only had 36 rushing yards in Week 1, but the threshold is still modest for his explosiveness. Miami needs more out of the run game this week after a rough opener. In similar matchups last year, he is over in 5/5 games.

SUNDAY NFL CARD 🏈 T.J. Hockenson O3.5 Receptions Harold Fannin Jr. O4 Receptions Geno Smith O0.5 INT Aaron Rodgers O0.5 Passing TD Derrick Henry O92.5 Rushing Yards De’Von Achane O56.5 Rushing Yards Leans: Trevor Lawrence O32.5 Pass Attempts Cooper Kupp O23.5 Receiving Yards Ja’Marr Chase O6.5 Receptions

Harold Fannin Jr. O4 Receptions Fannin only had 3 targets in Week 1, so this is more of a bounce-back role bet than a recent-form bet. Tampa allowed plenty of TE production last season, and Cleveland badly needs to get Fannin more involved, especially against a Buccaneers team that allowed 32% of targets to Tight Ends last week.

Mauricio Ruffy ML — 1u This fight comes down to whether Ruffy can make Arman work way harder than he wants to for every takedown. Arman’s clearest edge is the wrestling. If he can get Ruffy stuck on the fence, chain attempts together, and turn this into long control stretches, that’s the danger. But if Ruffy can stuff the first shot, circle off the cage, and keep forcing resets back to open space, the striking advantage starts to matter a lot more. Ruffy is much more dangerous at range. He’s explosive, accurate, and doesn’t need a ton of volume to change the fight with one clean sequence. The key is making Arman shoot from farther out instead of letting him build entries off pressure against the fence. If Ruffy can keep enough of this fight upright and make Arman pay for sloppy entries, I think he has a real path to banking rounds or finding a finish.

Tai Tuivasa ML — 0.5u This is a fight where I think Tai’s experience in ugly heavyweight exchanges matters a lot. Despaigne is incredibly dangerous early because of the length, speed, and one-shot power, but his style can also become pretty linear once opponents survive that first burst and make him fight in tighter spaces. Tai’s path is to weather the opening few minutes, pressure him backward, and turn this into a pocket fight instead of a clean kickboxing match at range. That means chopping the legs, working the body, and forcing Despaigne to exchange where Tai’s own power becomes a real problem. I don’t love Tai trying to play a technical long-range game here. I like him if he can make the fight messy, close distance, and drag Despaigne into the kind of brawl where one clean hook can end everything.

Can’t even make this parlay on DraftKings lol

The winners for this Sunday. Cowboys. Broncos. Packers. Chargers. Buccaneers. +643 on ProphetX, +614 on DK. If you’re gonna play this anyways, why not play it where you’re getting more money?

UFC CARD 🥊 Alexandre Pantoja ML — 1u Pantoja by Submission — 0.5u Mauricio Ruffy ML — 1u Ruffy by KO/TKO — 0.25u Tai Tuivasa ML — 0.5u Tsarukyan/Ruffy U3.5 Rounds Gable/Sharaf U1.5 Rounds Good luck!💚

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