Why did Trump not start bombing the Houthis on Saudi Arabia's request? I have an interesting theory. Given the midterm elections are coming up, the Republicans rely heavily on the U.S. oil industry for campaign donations. The U.S. oil industry is living through a bonanza right now due to high oil prices. So the Bab el-Mandab Strait being closed is actually in their, and therefore Trumps, interest.

We tend to think of Latin America as part of the Global South and therefore automatically aligned with China and Russia. However, Latin American countries have a very strong democratic political culture. This is part of their political identity, connecting them to the West.

It seems that Israel cannot normalize relations with Syria because Syria is not willing to expulse Turkish activity from its territory. When Israel attacks Syria, it is to preemptively thwart any effort by Turkey to establish a military hub in the attacked area.

Why is Netanyahu bombing Lebanon? 1) elections are coming up, so he wants to show a win by ensuring security in the north 2) he relies on a coalition with right-wing parties which require a tough stance on Hezbollah 3) war can interrupt his corruption process

Brasil is an economic winner of the Iran war. As a net energy exporter, the additional revenue from higher oil prices outweighs the higher cost of fertilizers. Before the war, the IMF expected Brazil's economy to grow at 2.0%. Since the war started, it has been raised to 2.4%.

Will there be an agreement between Oman and Iran about joint management of the Strait of Hormuz? Based on my OSINT research, it seems that Iran and Oman have found consensus on the main points of such an agreement, at least regarding an interim framework, while the terms of any permanent management arrangement are still being negotiated. Iran seems to want to move forward with this proposal. Iran sees this as an opportunity to cement its factual control over the Strait of Hormuz into a legitimate regional arrangement. Oman, in contrast to Iran, has published the broad framework of the agreement, but not the detailed terms of any permanent arrangement, suggesting that those terms might still need adjustment. It will convene a meeting with GCC states and Iran on Monday, as Oman is seeking consensus with the GCC. This will be particularly difficult, as the GCC states want to actually open the Strait and not cement Iranian control. Both Qatar and the UAE want the Strait to be reopened unconditionally. Therefore, I do not think that such a permanent agreement is imminent, even though Iran is pushing for it.

Global South countries should not align with Russia and China against the U.S. This will just lead to them being punished by the U.S. without getting real protection from neither Russia nor China. Instead, they should 1) Cooperate with China economically - with tariffs that are high enough to prevent cheap Chinese goods from destroying their domestic industries, but not so high that their own industries become uncompetitive 2) Have a transactional relationship with Moscow, - to be able to hedge against the US from time to time, do you have some political maneuver, without trusting or relying on Russia, it is not reliable: keep it transactional 3) Stay on the good side of the US - Either by staying out of the spotlight, or by being politically right-wing, the goal is to maintain your sovereignty, while avoiding direct U.S. action against you

X is a terrible way to learn about politics but a great way to be exposed to emotionally charged propaganda.

Why is X so quiet about the election next month in Brasil? This is about the largest country in Latin America either being left-wing Russia-China-aligned under Lula or right-wing US-aigned under Flavio Bolsonaro. For some reason you don't see it on political altnews X.

Brasil is about to have elections. And some judges like this Mendonça guys are heavily manipulating the process. He just removed the Federal Police’s Director of Intelligence today. You can assume that the U.S. is pulling strings behind him, to ensure Flavio Bolsonaro wins.

I never liked Alice Weidel, but now it seems Elon Musk is orchestrating an X psy-op because my feed is full of information telling me that: - she is controlled opposition because she is lesbian and married to a Sri Lankan wife - her grandfather was a Nazi - she is a Chinese spy - she is promoting Jewish interests Effectively, she is being accused of belonging to every political ideology aside from perhaps Islamism: - Being a secret Globalist - Being a secret Nazi - Being a secret Communist - Being a secret Zionist

A lot of people here are victims to state propaganda, trapped in black-white thinking. They think a critique of Russia or China, is automatically an endorsement of the US. Neither the US, nor Russia, nor China are "good". They are all ruthless nationalist powers.