Event-driven trades and special situation investments. All my picks are posted on https://nitter.cf/t.co/YyZdX4ZhPY. Tracking portfolio: +770% since 2017.
Not financial advice
Joined March 2015
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Massive 44% bump in the $DDI buyout offer, now at $16.25/ADS.
Great outcome, and pretty much exactly how we expected this to play out.
No closing timeline yet, and the spread is now just 3.5%.
Full pitch on SSI👇
While everything is down, $RSVR keeps delivering. Another solid Q2, another guidance raise.
The review of the founder-led bid keeps dragging on.
Given the steady improvements in the business, I wouldn't be surprised if the special committee is holding out for a higher price.
A bump certainly looks possible. But with the spread down to just 1.5%, the risk/reward isn't nearly as compelling anymore.
Up 17% since SSI write-up. Trimming heavily 👇
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A surprising development at $RGS
Five of its six directors failed to secure majority support at the Oct 28 annual meeting, with Bill Charters being the only exception. Shareholders also rejected the executive compensation proposal.
As a reminder, Bill Charters is the founder of Sabal Capital Management, a fund focused on special situations and restructurings. He was part of the 2024 activist group, joined the board in April 2026 and currently owns ~4% of RGS. There had been nothing to suggest he was pushing for another board shakeup.
The five directors have now offered their resignations, but with no alternative slate on the table, the board itself will decide whether to accept them or keep everyone in place. Andrew Alfano, one of the five, was appointed chairman just one day after the vote, which suggests they are staying put.
Alfano has said he will speak with shareholders to understand what prompted the vote, so we may get more clarity soon. My suspicion is that investors are becoming increasingly skeptical about the prospects of refinancing the debt, especially as the process keeps dragging on.
Any thoughts here?
$RGS, a hair salon franchisor, is crossing the Rubicon in its turnaround.
FCF inflecting, closures slowing, massive refinancing incoming.
Already cheap at 12x TTM FCF. If refinancing succeeds in cutting interest, co trades at 7-8x FCF.
Full pitch:
specialsituationinvestments.…
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A bit late to this one, but Fund 1 finally made its expected move on $XPOF
Non-binding bid at $5.61–7/sh.
Not too excited, though. My experience with Fund 1 bids has been pretty underwhelming. Previous attempts went nowhere.
Full thoughts in screenshot, SSI pitch below👇
Full pitch: specialsituationinvestments.…
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$INA.AX bidding war has played out nicely.
Avid just matched Warburg at A$5.45/sh + dividend. Spread is now just 2.8%.
Could be leaving a bit on the table, but risk/reward no longer looks worth it.
Closing this one out at +32% in 1.5 months.
Full pitch on SSI👇
A profitable, debt-free company at just 1.4x EBITDA. Cash alone is ~40% of mcap.
AI fears have crushed the stock. A domicile move could bring index buying and bigger buybacks.
Lost-client drag should soon fade, and buyers are reportedly circling.
Full pitch on SSI👇
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Anthropic's S-1 is quite something.
Founders control 50.1% of the vote. An independent trust picks most of the board.
Public shareholders get to provide the capital and enjoy the ride.
Good luck launching an activist campaign here😂
Fund 1 increased its $XPOF exposure through swaps to 9.98%, on top of its existing 9.9% direct equity stake.
Total economic exposure now stands at 19.88%.
Mgmt has already adopted a poison pill.
Fund 1 has a history of building large stakes before launching takeover bids 👇
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Full pitch here: specialsituationinvestments.…
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$CWY.AX +20% today after signing the binding papers with EQT.
This should go some way toward restoring EQT’s standing with Aussie investors after it walked away from several previous deals. Those walk-aways were probably part of why the spread had been so wide here too. A nice outcome overall.
Full pitch 👇
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Worth checking out 👇
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Another odd-lot split-off worked out for SSI subs.
$MDT offer expired at the max exchange ratio, with MMED shares expected this week.
Hedged odd lots from write-up levels should net ~$600 after borrow fees and dividends.
Full pitch below 👇
Full pitch: specialsituationinvestments.…
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$GNTX is a dominant auto supplier trading at an undemanding valuation.
- #1 in auto-dimming mirrors
- Higher-value products improving the mix
- Clean balance sheet, zero debt
- ~10x normalized unlevered FCF
Pitch by Palm Valley Capital
