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Investing With Brandon retweeted
Retail investor: I’m holding my $INTC & selling covered calls. At least it pads my downside
Me: Where’d you buy it?
Retail investor: around $130
Me: & where is it now?
Retail investor: ...$66
Me: That’s a $64 drop. How much have the covered calls paid you?
Retail investor: like a few bucks a month
Me: So they padded maybe 5% of a 50% loss
Retail investor: well I’ll sell calls to get rid of the shares
Me: For that to work, the stock has to finish ABOVE your strike at expiration. If it keeps falling, the shares never leave. You just keep holding the bag
Retail investor: but if I sell I pay taxes
Me: You’re down 50%. There are no taxes. That’s the problem
Me: If the thesis is broken, you sell. Covered calls don’t fix a bad position
Covered calls don’t protect you from a stock that was a bubble.
Warren Buffett’s average return is 19.9% a year
Not 300%. About 20%
But he did it for about 60 years. That’s what made him one of the richest people on earth
Meanwhile the guy who made 300% on calls last year is usually down 50% the next time the market drops 10%
That is the post...
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The next 42 days might be the most uncertain stretch of the year
Midterms on Tuesday. Talk of strikes on Iran after the election. AI spending fears. A Fed that might hike in December
But here’s what I keep coming back to... in 42 days, most of that will be KNOWN
We’ll know who won. We’ll likely know if there’s a deal with Iran or more fighting. We’ll know what the Fed did
Markets hate not knowing more than they hate bad news. Once it’s known, it gets priced in & the market moves on
Since 1970, the S&P has averaged about 14% in the 6 months after midterms vs about 6% in other years
I’m expecting volatility the next few weeks. I’m also not going to capitulate in the middle of it
My only goal for the next 42 days is to not do anything dumb.
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Retail investor: I’m holding my $INTC & selling covered calls. At least it pads my downside
Me: Where’d you buy it?
Retail investor: around $130
Me: & where is it now?
Retail investor: ...$66
Me: That’s a $64 drop. How much have the covered calls paid you?
Retail investor: like a few bucks a month
Me: So they padded maybe 5% of a 50% loss
Retail investor: well I’ll sell calls to get rid of the shares
Me: For that to work, the stock has to finish ABOVE your strike at expiration. If it keeps falling, the shares never leave. You just keep holding the bag
Retail investor: but if I sell I pay taxes
Me: You’re down 50%. There are no taxes. That’s the problem
Me: If the thesis is broken, you sell. Covered calls don’t fix a bad position
Covered calls don’t protect you from a stock that was a bubble.
Retail investor: I’m waiting until after the midterms & the Iran stuff before I invest
Me: What if Trump tweets “we have a deal with Iran” tonight?
Retail investor: ...then the market rips
Me: Probably up big Monday morning. Then what?
Retail investor: then Id wait for a dip
Me: & if the dip doesn’t come?
Retail investor: idk...
Me: That’s the trap mast people fall for. Peak fear on Iran earlier this year was followed by a sharp rebound. The best days usually show up right after the worst ones.
Retail investor: so just buy now?
Me: If it’s below fair value & your ratios are in check, buy it & be patient. If it’s not compelling, don’t. But don’t make it about a headline nobody can predict
By the time it feels safe, it’s usually more expensive and the deal is gone...
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$AMD fell 11% Friday. $NVDA fell 4%
Same AI selloff. Same chip sector. Same headlines
So why did AMD drop more than twice as much?
Valuation. Coming into the week, AMD traded around 50x next year’s earnings. Nvidia was about 17x...
Nvidia also has better growth, better margins, & the best product.
When the tide goes out, the expensive stuff gets hit the hardest. Nobody cares about valuation until it does...
AMD might be a great company. But I’m not paying 3x Nvidia’s multiple for a business with lower margins & slower growth
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Retail investor: The market is crashing. I’m getting out
Me: How far is the S&P from its all time high?
Retail investor: idk... 15%?
Me: About 3%
Retail investor: ...it feels way worse than that
Me: The Nasdaq is down about 9% from its high. In 2022 it fell 36% & the S&P fell 25%
Retail investor: ok but there’s Iran, AI spending, the Fed...
Me: In 2022 interest rates went from 0 to over 5%. That’s a real reason for a crash. Right now the market came into the year expensive & it’s cooling off toward fair value while earnings keep growing
Retail investor: so what are you doing?
Me: Nothing different. My ratios were built for a much bigger drop than this. As it gets cheaper, I lean in. It's that simple... I like better prices.
If a 3% pullback makes you sell, a real crash will wipe you out...
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The most underrated thing about selling a 2 year portfolio secured put...
You don't have to hold it for all 2 years.
April 2025. Tariff panic. Everyone was scared & paying top dollar for puts to protect themselves. So I sold them 2 year puts.
About 3 months later the market had bounced... & nobody wanted to pay up for puts anymore. Everyone wanted calls again.
The puts I sold for top dollar were suddenly worth a fraction of that. I bought them back & kept roughly 75% of the premium.
I was in the trade for about 3 months out of 24.
That wasn't theta doing the work. The share price went up AND the fear left the market. Both of those crushed the value of the put.
If you get value from my posts, you'll love my 10 Day Stock & Options Transformation Training.
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Everyone’s calling $INTC a “generational buy” after it fell 29% in one day. Its worst day since 1974
Here’s what I said about Intel in my Discord this year...
In May it was trading around $80. My fair value was $18
In June it ran all the way to $142
In July it was around $100. My fair value was $40
Friday it closed at $65.76. Down 54% from the high... & it’s STILL up about 78% this year
My fair value today is about $30. So even after a 53% drop, it’s trading at roughly 2x what I think it’s worth
Revenue growth around 12%. Guidance around 10%. Around 46x earnings. The S&P beats that with 500 companies of diversification
A 54% drop from a bubble price can still leave you overpaying...
Valuations don’t matter in the short term. They ALWAYS matter in the long term.
If you get value from my posts, you'll love my 10 Day Stock & Options Transformation Training.
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Retail investor: I finally started investing in a month ago... & I’m down. I think I’m just bad at this
Me: What did you buy?
Retail investor: $QQQ & a couple big tech names
Me: Then you’re not bad at this. You bought when the market was running hot & now it’s cooling off. It's a healthy & normal part of being an investor.
Retail investor: but it went down right after I bought
Me: The market doesn’t know you bought. It doesn’t know your cost basis. Short term it bounces around. Long term it follows earnings
Retail investor: so how long until it works
Me: Give the thesis time. The people who thought they were geniuses because a stock went up the day after they bought were just as wrong as you feel right now
Me: Keep adding to great stuff when it’s below fair value. Don’t judge a 3 year decision on a 1 month result
Being down a month after you buy tells you nothing about whether you were right. Zoom out and be patient.
Retail investor: Earnings are up like 30% this year. Why is the S&P only up 10%?
Me: Where was the P/E at the start of the year?
Retail investor: no idea
Me: About 23. That’s expensive. The market had already priced in a lot of that growth before it showed up
Retail investor: so the earnings were already “paid for”
Me: Pretty much. If the market started the year at fair value, we probably would’ve seen 20%+. Instead earnings did the heavy lifting & the P/E came down to about 18.5
Retail investor: so that’s bad?
Me: It’s the opposite. Prices up 10%, earnings up way more... the market got CHEAPER. I’m more bullish now than I was in January. I will stick to the plan & capitalize.
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