Finance 📈 l Wealth Solutions I Investor I Trader I Multibaggers I [email protected] I https://nitter.cf/t.co/zpz6VEHEMS
Pune, India
Joined August 2013
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We allocated to #QSIF hybrid for low risk allocation for some clients . Instead it delivered bumper returns more than Equity.
After that, we had enquiries from existing and new clients for allocating more to QSIF Hybrid. We had to explain that this return is one of Lucky trade and not repeatable pattern or strategy.
When fund delivers extraordinary Alpha in short duration, you have to 1st identify the source of return and then question whether it is repeatable before deciding allocation.
Quant Mutual Fund is a founder-led fund house that makes big, concentrated, aar-paar bets. You either win big or lose big. Its ESDS Software trade shows both sides.
In August, Quant MF got ESDS shares as an anchor investor at ₹429. The other fund houses in the anchor book put theirs into regular mutual funds. Quant MF put its whole allotment, about ₹24 crore each, into two of its SIFs.
One of them, qsif Hybrid Long-Short, managed ₹298 crore at the end of August. So one small-cap that had not yet listed, and could not be sold for a month, was 8.05% of a fund that Quant’s own factsheet calls a “Conservative Hybrid portfolio”.
ESDS listed on 4 September and went from ₹429 to ₹1,509.50 by month-end. The fund made 16.91% in September. The Nifty fell 6.06%. The other ten hybrid long-short SIFs returned between -3.32% and +0.53%.
That one month made it the leader by a mile. Only three hybrid long-short SIFs are a year old. Over one year, qsif Hybrid Long-Short is up 29.03%, Edelweiss’s Altiva 10.38% and SBI’s Magnum 5.32%. Take out September and qsif’s year is about 10.4%, level with Altiva.
Then Quant MF took money off the table. Anchor investors can sell half their shares after 30 days and the rest after 90. Half unlocked on 2 October. By 31 October, ESDS had gone from 12.74% of the fund to 3.86%. At the 30 October price, that is about 2.8 lakh shares left out of about 5.59 lakh. Almost exactly the half it was allowed to sell. The same pattern shows in its other SIF.
This time the bet landed on the right side. Now the other side.
If ESDS had listed weak, the fund would have been stuck holding 8% in a falling small-cap, with no way out for a month. A 30% fall would have cost it roughly 2.4 percentage points. For a conservative hybrid fund, that alone is a bad month.
Money that came in after the jump did not get the gain. The fund grew from ₹298 crore to ₹663 crore in September and ₹843 crore by the end of October. It fell 3.12% in October.
And ESDS closed at ₹1,147.25 on 9 November, about 24% below its September-end price. The remaining anchor shares unlock on 1 December.
✨ Happy Diwali from Team Invesys! 🪔
May this festival of lights bring prosperity, happiness, and health.
Wishing you and your family a bright and prosperous Diwali!
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Chart is just your guide to identify repeatable historical pattern. No guarantee it will work every time. In late 2024, I was shouting market is not going anywhere for next two years based on Cycle. I was called Perma bear. Now that we are at tail end of correction & I am not part of 12K gang , I am accused of being Perma bull 🐂 😄
Sir I have genuine question do movement and other factors makes price on charts or it is other way around ? I mean no charts indicated in 2024 we have made top no charts predicted Crude at 120 $ at 96
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RBI, CAD, FCNR.. Ignore the WHY of USDINR. After 15% depreciation in 2 yrs #INR maintains the level for next 2 yrs
Expect INR below 95 for CY 2027 & 2028.
This brute short covering
OI dropped 22% till yday from 4.14L to 3.25L contracts
From FII net short -3L contract at start of expiry to -1.37L yday, covering is huge
Retails made money from FII . Now it's even steven.
आजकल मार्केट में क्या चल रहा है?
#Nifty up पोर्टफोलियो down चल रहा हैं
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In Cyclicals #PE look extremely cheap at top & extremely expensive at bottom. $NVDA should start to look extremely expensive for a buy. Some more quarters of pain.
Just to put today's crash into perspective:
After today's crash, Nvidia, $NVDA, is now trading at a Forward P/E ratio of ~13x.
That's 7 turns below the S&P 500's ~20x Forward P/E and less than one-third of Walmart's ~43x.
Ironically, the name at the forefront of the AI buildout is now one of the "cheapest" stocks in the market.
Truly incredible.
#Kospi down in the dumps but look at longer term picture. It ran too fast too soon after breakout.
Down 20% more at 4000 and it will be good buy next year. CHIP & Memory guys will see steady cashflow and should be back in business next year.
#NDX is good to buy after -25% drawdown historically
Currently running at -15%
“facilitating the passage of Indian ships was intended to allow imports of medicines from India, while the exemption for Chinese vessels was intended to secure Beijing’s political support.”
Being Pharmacy of the world helps. Well done 👏🏻
#Iran exempts ships from India and 3 other nations from transit restrictions in Strait of #Hormuz
cnbctv18.com/world/iran-exem…
FII Outflows, Trump Tariffs, Iran War, Crude Oil..
Everything bad was thrown at market for past 2 years, yet #Nifty stands firm above 22K
Now there are some good news on horizon like LTCG moderation, US deal, FII started buying, Better Valuations, Earnings Growing
Back to Back 2 Diwali's muted. Hopefully we will be much higher by next Diwali.
