Building world’s 1st ₿itcoin & AI IR firm @OGAdvisors | Research @Finblueprint | @VillanovaU ‘16
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My working thesis is that the market, particularly across AI and data center infrastructure, is increasingly pricing in the probability of a Democratic sweep in November. If this plays out I suspect much of the political and regulatory uncertainty will have already been discounted by the time we get to the midterms.
My base case is that we establish a bottom ahead of the election, see some consolidation as the results and policy implications are digested, and then enter a much more constructive environment heading into 2027.
The underlying demand for compute and power infrastructure isn't going away, irrespective of who controls Congress. I think the market is conflating near-term political uncertainty with a structural impairment to the LT investment thesis.
Once that uncertainty begins to clear, attention should shift back toward fundamentals, execution, and capital deployment. Assuming liquidity conditions are supportive, I think smaller-cap infrastructure names could be among the biggest beneficiaries of that rotation.
In other words, I suspect the political cycle is influencing the timing of the opportunity far more than its underlying economics. Yes I know yields are higher too...but guess what? Get used to it that's the environment we're in and until economic productivity deteriorates it won't really affect the market as bad as you think (otherwise indexes wouldn't be at ATHs)
This is a glimpse into the future of financial markets.
I've discussed this before, but worth reiterating. We're entering a fundamentally different era of market participation, and investors need to recalibrate their expectations of volatility. Consider how dramatically market structure has evolved.
2-3x leveraged ETFs, options, perps, increasingly accessible margin, algo trading, 24/7 crypto markets has fundamentally changed how quickly capital can move and how aggressively investors can express risk and we're still in early stages.
Tokenization will extend market access, collateral mobility, and trading hours across entirely new categories of assets. Yes, we'll progressively remove the friction to market access and bring more participation, but it also introduces a paradox.
We're making it easier than ever to participate in markets, while potentially making it harder than ever to remain disciplined within them. Markets are increasingly interconnected and sensitive to SO many variables. A literal tweet can trigger algo selling, which can accelerate, force margin calls and liquidate an entire PMs book
Greater liquidity, accessibility, and more efficient risk transfer are genuine benefits. But when these innovative products are combined with increasingly accessible leverage, the speed at which markets can reprice risk can become disconnected from what we've been used to for decades.
As markets become faster, more leveraged, and more reactive, patience, simplicity, and the ability to remain invested may become increasingly valuable advantages.
Danny Marques | Investing Informant retweeted
The playbook is literally the same, every single damn time.
And every single damn time people can’t think straight and objectively.
Sigh.
Ethereum ethereum:native should be finding a bottom soon against Bitcoin bitcoin:native
More importantly zoom out, things will be VERY different in 2027. In a very good way
During times of extreme volatility, it's important to zoom out and evaluate the higher timeframe structures
This is solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 / bitcoin:native
What we can see is that all is well. Last month, it saw its FIRST breakout since 2024. It'll have completed a backtest this month. Beautiful really
Where do you think this goes next?
@lourenco_vs @Osemka8 @CryptoRyan17 @ChifoiCristian
Buying $CIFR in Dec 2022 and March 2025 did NOT feel good. Stop observing the day to day volatility, it's a waste of time. The long-term view remains unchanged and this should be of great comfort to any investor. Pain may not be over in the short-term but we're near the point of MAXIMUM asymmetry for the end of the decade
Everyone needs to evaluate their risk and make their own decisions but this is where you double down on conviction. These are the days that you look back and say I can't believe I didn't buy more
$CIFR has been considered "dead" money twice in the last 4 years. What's funny is that AFTER everyone dismissed the company and became uninterested, the forward returns were an 18x in 2022 and 15x most recently in 2025.
While the world screams AI is a bubble and that neoclouds won't survive, the infrastructure behind it is still being built and monetized
Technically, the stock is in a sweet spot between the 0.786 and 0.887 fib where I expect it to find a bottom. Notice how even amidst all this selling, price is still trading above the breakout that preceded it with no deviation or acceptance below the prior accumulation
This too shall pass
Update on $WGMI (aka HPC / AI infrastructure stocks)
From a technical perspective, we're at a deeper level of fear than in April 2025 and almost as sold off, -65% vs -63% from the previous high which means bottom is near and you should be buying your favorite companies
$IREN $CIFR $WULF $HUT $NUAI $BGDE $DRK
Revisiting $WGMI again as AI infrastructure stocks like $IREN $CIFR $NBIS and $HUT are approaching an important bottoming window, setting the stage for another major period of price expansion.
When I look at the broader technical structure of WGMI, these are the bullish things that stand out:
Long-term resistance is becoming support.
After spending years building a base beneath the neckline (in white), WGMI finally broke above that resistance in 2025. What's happening now appears consistent with an expanded flat correction, bringing price back to test that same breakout region. Former resistance becoming support is a characteristics of a developing secular uptrend.
The entire consolidation since October 2025 has largely occurred ABOVE the multiyear breakout.
Despite the volatility and deterioration in sentiment across the sector, price has yet to establish a sustained breakdown beneath the neckline. It looks like an insufferable bear market from a pure sentiment perspective but its proving to be a mid-cycle consolidation within a much larger expansionary structure.
The market has spent the past year repricing nearly every conceivable risk.
AI infrastructure financing, rising capital requirements, credit quality, DC economics, political uncertainty, and fears of overinvestment. While all legit considerations, after all this, $WGMI is still holding above its 0.887 fib....
The correction is approaching an interesting point of technical exhaustion.
Weekly momentum has deteriorated substantially, and the latest price action is revisiting the lower boundary of a potential bullish broadening, or megaphone, formation.
The conditions for another reversal are beginning to emerge.
Could eventually trade above $200? It's a plausible upside scenario if the sector undergoes another sustained period of expansion, regulatory uncertainty subsides and companies start clearing execution milestones over the next year. Investors may be underestimating the potential magnitude of the next expansion by focusing almost exclusively on the pain of the current correction.
We are short power. It will get built. And, until the market proves otherwise, this is an accumulation window rather than evidence that the secular opportunity in AI infrastructure has run its course.
@cantonmeow @Fibonacci_TA @Freedom_By_40 @CrypticTrades_ @chad_ventures @acethebulllly
$WGMI getting really close to the 0.887 fib at $24 which means the bottom in AI infrastructure stocks like $IREN $CIFR $HUT is getting real close
No such thing as timing/buying “THE bottom.” It’s a fools game. These are the times where buying does NOT feel good. But, future you will be proud that you muted the noise when fear and doubt were at its highest.
Stay strong. Generational returns are made this way.
Revisiting $WGMI again as AI infrastructure stocks like $IREN $CIFR $NBIS and $HUT are approaching an important bottoming window, setting the stage for another major period of price expansion.
When I look at the broader technical structure of WGMI, these are the bullish things that stand out:
Long-term resistance is becoming support.
After spending years building a base beneath the neckline (in white), WGMI finally broke above that resistance in 2025. What's happening now appears consistent with an expanded flat correction, bringing price back to test that same breakout region. Former resistance becoming support is a characteristics of a developing secular uptrend.
The entire consolidation since October 2025 has largely occurred ABOVE the multiyear breakout.
Despite the volatility and deterioration in sentiment across the sector, price has yet to establish a sustained breakdown beneath the neckline. It looks like an insufferable bear market from a pure sentiment perspective but its proving to be a mid-cycle consolidation within a much larger expansionary structure.
The market has spent the past year repricing nearly every conceivable risk.
AI infrastructure financing, rising capital requirements, credit quality, DC economics, political uncertainty, and fears of overinvestment. While all legit considerations, after all this, $WGMI is still holding above its 0.887 fib....
The correction is approaching an interesting point of technical exhaustion.
Weekly momentum has deteriorated substantially, and the latest price action is revisiting the lower boundary of a potential bullish broadening, or megaphone, formation.
The conditions for another reversal are beginning to emerge.
Could eventually trade above $200? It's a plausible upside scenario if the sector undergoes another sustained period of expansion, regulatory uncertainty subsides and companies start clearing execution milestones over the next year. Investors may be underestimating the potential magnitude of the next expansion by focusing almost exclusively on the pain of the current correction.
We are short power. It will get built. And, until the market proves otherwise, this is an accumulation window rather than evidence that the secular opportunity in AI infrastructure has run its course.
@cantonmeow @Fibonacci_TA @Freedom_By_40 @CrypticTrades_ @chad_ventures @acethebulllly
If you’re trying to wrap your mind around why we are seeing so much sell pressure in the AI, semi, memory stocks and even big tech right now, this is why
A massive de-risking of uncertainty is being priced in before the midterm elections. Post-elections into 2027, we see clear skies
My working thesis is that the market, particularly across AI and data center infrastructure, is increasingly pricing in the probability of a Democratic sweep in November. If this plays out I suspect much of the political and regulatory uncertainty will have already been discounted by the time we get to the midterms.
My base case is that we establish a bottom ahead of the election, see some consolidation as the results and policy implications are digested, and then enter a much more constructive environment heading into 2027.
The underlying demand for compute and power infrastructure isn't going away, irrespective of who controls Congress. I think the market is conflating near-term political uncertainty with a structural impairment to the LT investment thesis.
Once that uncertainty begins to clear, attention should shift back toward fundamentals, execution, and capital deployment. Assuming liquidity conditions are supportive, I think smaller-cap infrastructure names could be among the biggest beneficiaries of that rotation.
In other words, I suspect the political cycle is influencing the timing of the opportunity far more than its underlying economics. Yes I know yields are higher too...but guess what? Get used to it that's the environment we're in and until economic productivity deteriorates it won't really affect the market as bad as you think (otherwise indexes wouldn't be at ATHs)
$VIX now at $21…Volatility was building under the surface
Many of you think think technical analysis is astrology (it's not), but here's 10 years of price data on the $VIX and the current range it's been in and where volatility has typically entered the market
I expect some volatility in traditional equities in next 1-3 months
Danny Marques | Investing Informant retweeted
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All the fundamental analysts who foolishly disregard technical analysis should look and take this $AMD chart seriously
It's completed and reached the projected breakout from an almost 40 year consolidation.
Please read if you're invested in AI infrastructure stocks
One of the biggest disconnects I see among investors in this space is how many are bullish on the right themes but express that bullishness in ways that almost guarantee they'll struggle to capture the opportunity. You're investing in industries that could fundamentally reshape how the world operates over the next 10, 20, or 30 years. Yet you're expressing that conviction through excessive leverage, short-dated options, or position sizes that make a +50% drawdown psychologically or financially unbearable. You can be entirely right about where an industry is headed and still lose a tremendous amount of money because you were poorly positioned.
So it brings me to something else I've never quite understood....this obsession with arbitrary investment horizons. I often hear people say they're investing in something for the "next 2-3 years." Why? Unless you have a specific liquidity requirement, why impose an expiration date on an investment thesis that could take years or a decade to fully materialize?
Imagine identifying Amazon, Microsoft, or Google early in their development, only to sell because your predetermined investment horizon had expired. Some of the greatest wealth creation in public markets came from investors who recognized a structural transformation, owned the right businesses, and allowed those businesses to compound over time.
Consider what's happening across AI, energy, compute, and digital infrastructure. We're witnessing an enormous industrial buildout that will likely unfold over many years. Entire industries are being created, existing infrastructure is being reconfigured, and capital is being deployed on a scale that will take years to translate into mature business models and sustainable cash flows.
There will be periods of extraordinary optimism, followed by equally uncomfortable periods of skepticism. Valuations will compress, companies will disappoint, financing conditions will change, some businesses won't survive, some probably get acquired, etc...That is the nature of investing in an emerging industry.
The objective isn't to blindly hold everything forever. It's to identify businesses capable of creating durable value and give that value creation sufficient time to play out. But for some odd reason so many retail investors make the mistake and approach a potentially generational investment opportunity with the mindset of a PM who needs to justify performance every quarter. Stop being so preoccupied with maximizing returns over the next few months or year that you're sacrificing the opportunity to compound wealth over the next decade.
Nothing wrong w/trading, taking profits, or adjusting exposure as circumstances change. But, in reality you will likely underperform having a genuinely long-term investment mindset imo. Recognizing the opportunity is only half the equation. The other half is positioning yourself financially and psychologically to participate in it long enough for you to see the result of the seeds you're planting now. Being early, or even being right, means very little if you can't stay invested long enough to benefit.
@cantonmeow @mikealfred @CrypticTrades_ @lourenco_vs @Chardonnay_OG @Fibonacci_TA @acethebulllly @XCapitalMgmt
IF we compare Bitcoin bitcoin:native to 2022, and when the process to new highs began, there was a wick to the 0.5 fib. Applying that to now would be a bottom in the $71-74k range
Personally I'm buying here either way but have orders for lower if we get a low liquidity selloff this weekend
Danny Marques | Investing Informant retweeted
the most credible path to save this market is to nationalize anthropic because the only way to end the circular financing doom loop is to coerce the lender of last resort
that happens when all options run out and the market has spoken that the options are indeed running out fast
Danny Marques | Investing Informant retweeted
Digital Realty just posted record leasing, a record $2.5B backlog, and raised guidance — and hyperscale renewals reset 26% higher. Demand is contracted, capacity is scarce, rents are climbing.
This is the market CleanSpark is building into.
The pullback we’re seeing and will continue to see in memory and semis was told to you before the summer began. Remember that
I love seeing individuals use fundamentals and undervalued FWD P/E ratios to justify how a stock that’s done a 10-40x in 1 year like $SNDK $MU $WDC can keep going higher without a significant pullback that makes people question their conviction
Mind you, a large correction is not bearish though many will interpret it this way. We’re very early in this AI infrastructure buildout, compute is scarce, but there is a right time to buy quality assets and it’s not when sentiment is euphoric and prices are at all-time high
The correction happening in $IREN over the last few months after a 12x is a perfect example of what to expect in semis / memory plays over the next year imo
