Trader. Polyglot. Pragmatist. I write about predictions and current events. Insightful, engaging & witty long-forms on my Sub 👇
Joined January 2022
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*TRUMP SAYS 'NO' TO STRIKING IRAN AFTER ELECTIONS: POOL REPORT
*TRUMP ON IRAN: IT'S COMING TOGETHER NICELY, THAT'S WHY OIL DOWN
Trump, delivering closing message before midterms: We had a war with Iran—we won.
*IRAN SUPREME LEADER HAS GRANTED GOVT AUTHORITY FOR TALKS: IRNA
You are here 👉Trump spawns weak-ish (meaningless) Iran headline as Hail Mary to energize his 85iq base to save the Senate
(Expecting some better followup during market hours, this is even less than I hoped for)
Series of events I expect to happen over the next days/weeks:
>Trump spawns weak-ish (meaningless) Iran headline as Hail Mary to energize his 85iq base to save the Senate
>Weak market bounce
>GOP loses Midterms badly (53+ Dem seats)
>Trump-related assets nuke (coins, Elon)
1/3
>AI trade keeps unwinding, full 'oh shit this is happening isn't it' sentiment sets in
>Bombs start dropping, heavy Iran retaliation
>Market pukes, hikes called off
>Trump either capitulates with final taco or goes full Führerbunker and doubles down (70/30)
>Bubble over
3/3
Please start using @betmoardotfun for prediction market trading if you're not already doing so.
Not even a matter of convenience or UX at this point but safety 🙏
anyone from @Polymarket who's ever had anything to do with frontend or auth should have their internet access cut forever, revoke their visas and send them to the coal mines. Acquire betmoar, retain their devs in perpetuity and never get any closer than 10 miles from them
At this point it's pretty obvious that this hike was never really a close call.
What's more, my read of Warsh was most likely off as well and there's less coordination between Fed and Treasury than I assumed.
80c to hike after CPI was probably one of the best bets of 2026.
Will Kevin Warsh announce a hike at next week’s FOMC meeting?
My analysis of a nailbiter interest rate call👇
👉 The objectives, constraints, and decision rules of Fed Chair Warsh
👉 The September FOMC voter math
👉 My thesis on the September decision
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
This is a cozy group I'm a part of for daily market following, news, headlines, macro, locker room talk 😁
Can really recommend, intimate and great value for money
We’re happy to announce that Hypernova is sponsoring our upcoming Winter Camp, kicking off with FOMC this week
Winter Camp members receive a complimentary $10,000 assessment account on Hypernova (worth $110), with additional prizes for the top trader
We’re also raffling off 3 Winter Camp places, to enter, follow @HypernovaX and repost this post
More details below
Taking the L like a man.
Core at .29% and services ex-housing high means it's clearly above my inval. Per my analysis makes the hike cheap and a hold expensive (reputational cost, 10Y pricing in hike and dropping).
Had more on Kalshi too. On to the next one
Will Kevin Warsh announce a hike at next week’s FOMC meeting?
My analysis of a nailbiter interest rate call👇
👉 The objectives, constraints, and decision rules of Fed Chair Warsh
👉 The September FOMC voter math
👉 My thesis on the September decision
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
Core PPI came ok, so Nowcast 0.2 Core CPI forecast should hit.
Market says it's not enough to hold, but probably bc of oil full-sending.
Doing something I haven't done before and betting against the market here. Still think they give this a pass until they're late. We'll see
Will Kevin Warsh announce a hike at next week’s FOMC meeting?
My analysis of a nailbiter interest rate call👇
👉 The objectives, constraints, and decision rules of Fed Chair Warsh
👉 The September FOMC voter math
👉 My thesis on the September decision
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
I return the favor to @bernardbulletin, who's one of the sharpest and best election traders I know🤝 (and much better than me fwiw)
We have many great and substantial discussions about markets, so I wholeheartedly recommend following him.
When I started trading prediction markets one of the first people I followed was @IvanCryptoSlav. And after a year, Ivan continues to be one of the only people worth paying any attention to. Here's him on the next Fed decision:
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
Will Kevin Warsh announce a hike at next week’s FOMC meeting?
My analysis of a nailbiter interest rate call👇
👉 The objectives, constraints, and decision rules of Fed Chair Warsh
👉 The September FOMC voter math
👉 My thesis on the September decision
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
Time to look at the tape!
A fresh trading recap with 3 takeaways from a brutally volatile Q2 and a review of how my 2026 predictions have been holding up in the first half of the year.
May-July was my biggest swing ever 😓👇
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
This Cryptoslav guy seems to know his stuff.
Predictions aging like fine wine
They call him the unbribeable ref 😉
My 2026 predictions just in time to cap off a fun 2025.
Venezuela, Ukraine, Fed Chair, World Cup winner, and a lot more in this one.
Here’s to a successful 2026 on @Polymarket and beyond.
Happy New Year everybody!
Link in the replies 👇
My last sports post for the next few years…the FIFA World Cup Final Preview ⚽
And a little preview of the ‘loser’s final’ 👇
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
And then there were only 4!
My FIFA World Cup semifinals preview ⚽️👇
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
FIFA World Cup quarterfinal previews are up just in time!
Good luck to everybody who’s following and involved👋
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
FIFA World Cup quarterfinal previews are up just in time!
Good luck to everybody who’s following and involved👋
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
The R32 was quite fun wasn't it?
Let's hope the R16 will be even better.
My FIFA World Cup R16 preview 👇
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
