Chair, Dept. of History and Political Science at Utah Valley University. Assoc. Professor studying American public opinion and elections. Too old for this shit.
Utah, USA
Joined March 2009
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I had to make a little introduction video to fulfill the requirements of an online teaching workshop I'm enrolled in this Summer.
Jay DeSart retweeted
Congrats !
@JADPhD last year’s winner of APSA Forecasting Best Paper award and 2026 winners : Cornelius Erfort , Lukas F. Stoetzer @ThomasGswend, Elias Koch, Simon Munzert, @HannahRajski for “ The Zweitstimme model: a Forecast of the 2025 German Federal Election”.
Your Instant Ink program is a scam, @HP. You've been taking my money for over four years and have yet to send me any cartridges in that time. Now I can't print anything. The app still says I have ink when I clearly don't.
Hey @RCWilley, you're gonna need to deliver another new refrigerator after this. It has a couple dents in addition to the busted shelf. No acknowledgement, no apology. They just left without saying a word.
Who did Allan Lichtman's Keys to the Vatican say would win the Conclave?
I bet it wasn't someone named Bob.
#Forecast – at Spanish Fork, UT
Jay DeSart retweeted
The Electoral College prediction map in our @ps_polisci Special Issue introduction published in mid-October looks just like the actual results. Election fundamentals & scientific approaches work! doi.org/10.1017/S10490965240…
We are obviously still waiting for the final results, but the average Electoral College forecast from state-level models in the @ps_polisci Special Issue on Forecasting the 2024 US Elections is looking quite accurate! 🇺🇲 🗳 @m2p_be @Sciencepo_UdeM @McGillPoliSci @MizzouPoliSci
If I were advising Trump, I'd tell him to work on rehabilitating his legacy. Right now he's a twice impeached Grover Cleveland who currently sits near the bottom of the historical ranking of Presidents.
If his second term looks anything like the first, he'll stay there. 🧵1/4
Trump doesn't have to worry about reelection, so he has the opportunity to turn away from his base and strike a new tone. He could work to counter party polarization. A more positive tone of reconciliation and bipartisanship would do wonders to rehabilitate his image. 3/4
Jay DeSart retweeted
We are obviously still waiting for the final results, but the average Electoral College forecast from state-level models in the @ps_polisci Special Issue on Forecasting the 2024 US Elections is looking quite accurate! 🇺🇲 🗳 @m2p_be @Sciencepo_UdeM @McGillPoliSci @MizzouPoliSci
FWIW... The state-level point estimates of my Long-Range Forecast, the one that made a prediction a year ago, got every state right.
This was my forecast a year ago.
My long-range forecast model suggests a virtual toss-up, but the point estimates suggest that an Electoral College misfire in 2024 similar to that of 2016 is a distinct possibility. @pol4casting
The overlap in the confidence intervals between my Long-Range Forecast and the DeSart and Holbrook September Forecast suggests:
Harris' share of the National 2 party popular vote: 50.8-51.9
Harris' Electoral Vote Total: 241-306