Journal of International Economics

We show that a positive 1,2% Chinese industrial production surprise induces a synchronized increase of around 12 basis points in stock returns across most economies. This effect is stronger in emerging markets even after controlling for other characteristics.

Brazil’s 1990s trade liberalization had lasting effects on human capital. Tariff cuts in sectors employing children reduced child labor and increased schooling; adult-specific cuts did the opposite. Cohorts exposed in childhood show persistent effects on educational attainment.

The interaction of endogenous networks and markups significantly amplifies the gains from policies that facilitate supplier entry or firm matching, and from deep trade agreements that combine tariff cuts with such policies.

What inflation rate should central banks target? Using two global surveys, authors provide evidence on inflation preferences among economic experts

Leveraging cross-border project-level information, the paper identifies “green” FDI and finds that a larger number of active climate policies is associated with higher green FDI inflows.

US–China tariffs reshaped Factory Asia, not just bilateral trade. Product-level IO links show shocks cut China’s imports from upstream Japan Korea Taiwan suppliers, redirected trade toward ASEAN/Mexico/India, and shifted welfare across countries.

How did U.S. manufacturers respond to the China shock? Using a new job-title-based measure, I show that import competition spurred persistent adoption of new work, largely through offshoring and shifts toward non-production activities—while widening local wage inequality.