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Joined January 2025
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UCLA, Memphis, Florida, East Texas A&M(!) and BYU have the best wins in the young basketball season (based on the expected probability of the 50th rated team to win that game). Top 10 included here. Link for full list and more details: jthomanalytics.com/basketbal…
College hoops is back! How will your team’s first game impact their March Madness hopes?
For Villanova, vs Notre Dame:
✅ Win: 95% tourney odds, 7 seed
❌ Loss: 88% tourney odds, 8 seed
See your team’s projections here:
jthomanalytics.com/basketbal…
Projecting NCAA bids by conference - increase to 76 teams results in NO additional multi-bid conferences. 8 multi-bid conferences in 2026 and 8 projected for 2027. See your team’s probability to earn a bid and more details here: jthomanalytics.com/basketbal…
Wins to Seed Maps now available. See how many wins are projected to be required for each team to achieve a certain seed. Example below for Texas Tech and Gonzaga. 24 wins needed for 4 seed with TT schedule; 28 with Gonzaga’s. See other teams here:
jthomanalytics.com/basketbal…
With JMU loss, Boise State now nearly 50% probability to earn Group of 6 CFP playoff spot. UNM and JMU only other teams at >10%. More details here: jthomanalytics.com/football/…
2026-27 NCAA Seeding Ceiling/Floor now available. See most likely seed outcome range for your team. In Big East UConn and St John’s are the two teams that could compete for a 1 seed. Villanova with next highest ceiling (at 3 seed). Other conferences here: jthomanalytics.com/basketbal…
We believe in accountability. Below summary of last year’s preseason NCAA tournament projections vs actual results. For the most part, projections aligned with results. Teams with highest preseason probability to miss tournament: Baylor, USC, Auburn, Oregon, Miss St.
First look of 2026-27 basketball season now available at JThom Analytics. 37 teams have >80% probability to make the NCAA Tournament. Last season, all 22 teams identified as >80% probability in the preseason actually made the tourney. Find details here: jthomanalytics.com/basketbal…
See current CFP probabilities for top teams as compared to preseason one month ago. Florida, Alabama and Utah have risen the most while Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Oregon have dropped the most. More details at jthomanalytics.com/football/…
Analysis of multi-bid probabilities for CFP of the Big 12 and ACC conferences. Each conference currently has around a 1 in 3 chance to receive multiple bids. See additional information here: jthomanalytics.com/football/…
🤖 Made with AI
LSU currently has 28% probability to make SEC conf champ game. With win vs Ole Miss that increases to 36% (drops to 17% with a loss). For CFP, LSU 75% with win and 46% with loss; Ole Miss is 40% to CFP with win and 16% with loss. More details here: jthomanalytics.com/football/…
After week 2 - summary of CFP and conference championship probabilities. See more details at jthomanalytics.com
In Group of 6, BSU has highest probability to make CFP; Memphis 6th. Big probability swings based on today's game. BSU (26% chance now) up to 31% with win or down to 9% with loss. Memphis - 6% now - will end at 4% or 12%. More details at link: jthomanalytics.com/football/…
New feature - in Season Info tab see Biggest Upsets, Best Wins, and Worst Losses for past week, 2 weeks, 4 week or the season.
jthomanalytics.com/football/…
Last night UMass won their most difficult projected game of the season and Rutgers lost their 2nd easiest projected game.
See how your favorite team’s schedule stacks up here: jthomanalytics.com/football/…
New feature - Game Impact for current week games. Select team to see which impact their CFP chances. For Notre Dame their game is most critical - next biggest swings are UTEP/OU; Miami/Stanford; and N Texas/Indiana.
See summary for your team here: jthomanalytics.com/football/…
Below are 4 teams with highest probability to win college football conference championship - based on preseason ratings.
See more details here: jthomanalytics.com/football/…
Preseason college football projections loaded at JThom Analytics. Summary below of performance last season vs preseason CFP probabilities. All playoff teams were in the top 36 playoff probabilities. Is your team among the top 36 this preseason?
jthomanalytics.com/football/…
