Another perspective on Alberta independence has come from outside Canada, this time from Ireland. Edmarverson A. Santos, a Dublin-based international-law analyst with an LL.M. in International Law and a bachelor’s degree in Law, has published a detailed examination of whether Alberta can legally leave Canada and what the journey from Canadian province to independent country could actually involve. I have to say, it’s refreshing to hear another perspective from outside our Canadian bubble. Santos begins with an important distinction surrounding October 19: Option 2 is not Alberta declaring independence. Nobody is going to bed Canadian and waking up the next morning wondering where we keep the new passports. The October vote is non-binding. Option 2 asks whether the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a later referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada. If a future referendum produced a clear majority on a clear question in favour of independence, Santos points to the Supreme Court of Canada’s 1998 Secession Reference. That referendum would not make Alberta independent by itself. A clear democratic mandate would instead create a constitutional obligation to negotiate. And there would be plenty to negotiate: assets and liabilities, borders, Indigenous and treaty rights and territorial interests, minority rights, citizenship, pensions, federal property and infrastructure. Santos also notes an unresolved constitutional question. While lawful secession would ultimately require constitutional amendment, the Supreme Court has not determined precisely which Part V amending formula, or combination of formulas, would apply to provincial secession. Then comes the international side of the equation. If Alberta eventually negotiated a lawful separation, how would it function in the world as a new country? Santos examines international recognition, diplomatic relations, United Nations membership, participation in the World Trade Organization, international treaties and Alberta’s future relationship with North American trade arrangements such as CUSMA. An independent Alberta would not simply inherit everything Canada currently has. Some arrangements would require negotiation, others would involve accession procedures, and some could require entirely new agreements. It’s a useful look at the legal and international questions that would actually have to be addressed if Albertans ever chose independence. Not slogans. Not predictions. Just another perspective on what the process could actually involve. diplomacyandlaw.com/post/alb…

The international press is now describing Carney’s sudden enthusiasm for an Alberta oil pipeline as part of a bid to keep Alberta in Canada. For years, Alberta was expected to complain, negotiate and ultimately stay put. Give Alberta an exit door and suddenly everyone remembers where the oil is. And this is exactly what I think the Forever Canada crowd is missing. Option 2 isn’t only about whether Alberta ultimately leaves. It’s about what changes when Ottawa can no longer take Alberta staying for granted. We’re already getting a glimpse. Vote Option 2. independent.co.uk/news/canad…