JamesPetch

good analysts like you are trying to find DD FCF yields great analysts like me are trying on women's lingerie at DD's Discounts how do you think I know my sector better than anyone else? I'll bet you'd never think to go to autozone and drink a gallon of windshield wiper fluid, like I did this morning here's my math on $AZO, and fwiw and DD's is $ROST. 1/5 for a category expansion thesis using conservative market penetration ests, I'm at $5B in 2035 AZO Beverage revs (AZOB), discounted back, apply an SBUX multiple, and I'm at 130% upside to street. Do you know what street numbers are embedding for AZO's Beverage segment? Zero. My variant views shift entire industries. They transform businesses and they open the Consumer sector's eyes as to what they've been missing. What's my downside on the trade, by the way? Similarly, zero. Is 130% up and 0% down good? For other people, yes, for me, about average. 2. Now, we need a catalyst to capture that 130% upside. When there is no catalyst, I create my own. With one quick email I communicated my view to not just every single Consumer pod, but to Japanese industrials, Russian war material, French bakeries, as well as to every dicator, oligarch, shah, and financial news outlet on the planet. Why? Because I do this every time. The first 50 emails nothing happened. On the 51st email, one person traded off the email I sent. And because everyone else saw the stock go up after the email hit, they decided that I move markets. The stock rallied 5%. Everyone saw it rally 5%, which means an email from me is good for a quick 5% trade. Of course, now that 5% has become 20%, and AZO is ripping higher by the second, as all my ideas do. This is why I command the entire flow of the sector. They assume I move markets, because I do, and my existence itself is a daily masterclass in reflexivity. 3. Here's what my email said: **CHATTER AZO +130%** That's all I ever send. They look, the stock moved up, and they follow a great investor's footsteps. Within 10 minutes I will email AZO IR and CEO my updated segment ests to capture beverage upside They don't know that any of this has even took place, nor do they know I spent the night inside their store because of how well-connected I am with corporate access (the building super). They also don't know that I'm long into the print and alt data is 30 bps short. So I spent the night creating 30 bps of comp, just knowing in advance what I could set on fire that's eligible for insurance. I also ate 35 Goodyear tires. Those, I was just hungry, I don't think they'll be in comps. Finally, my backup plan is that if comps come in light for the quarter, I burn the store down. This removes it from the comp base. Removing a negative SSS% means SSS% goes higher and should get us over the street bogey. 4. Once AZO management gets my math, they will disseminate this to the street, everyone will use the $5B revenue math I sent them, and discount back. Why? Because the stock is already bid up 7% pre-market. So now it's 123% up, 7% down, and they will all say "worth a punt." By the end of the week every pod model will have $5B in 2035 windshield wiper fluid revenue Right now someone is emailing Advanced Auto Parts management to ask: "Can you do this too?" Because every AAP bull has a mental "If AZO goes up 50%, AAP has 300% upside." This is because every AAP bull is both completely delusional and severely affected by PTSD. I have thought about opening a rehab clinic solely for AAP bulls in the past except all they do is lose money. But they're missing something here. AAP cannot do what AZO is doing. Why? Because I'm short the stock. 5. Also, because Advanced Auto's wiper fluid is poisonous to human beings. Not many people know that... Except me, of course. I know my sector better than anyone else on earth, and I created the AZO position as a L/S pair with AAP. How did I know that AZO's was drinkable and AAP's wasn't? Well, I know my sector. You can keep asking if you want, even though I've told you 5,000 times that it's the only thing that matters. Now, here are my event path, trading, and sizing considerations. I am short AAP but sized for a 15% rally higher on blind spec/read-thru off AZO. I have ORLY as a flier long which should offset 5% of the loss. With AAP up 10% against me, I will size fully. The next leg of the event path is that over 3 weeks, the equity will lose 95% of its value. Because 3 is how long it will take for every Consumer analyst in America to go drink AAP's wiper fluid. I'd start taking the trade off down 90%, pending where AZO is trading. Now if you'll excuse me, I must get back to my primary research...which is the plus-size maternitywear section at DD's Discounts. Good luck with your yields, by the way.