Real estate & tech. Built from zero. Love leading teams, raising capital, and giving back. AI obsessed. Dad. Tiger 21.
Scottsdale, Arizona
Joined May 2023
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Jason Larson retweeted
Technical rescue members are currently on a water rescue with multiple people trapped near 40th St. and Camelback. The PIO is on the scene and will update as the incident progresses.
As always, amazing data and take from @jayparsons
Here are the top 20 markets for real estate investment in 2027, according to ULI's annual Emerging Trends Report just released this week. Quick thoughts on multifamily market in each:
DFW stays No. 1, not a surprise. Been steadier than other Sun Belt markets. Still supply to work through, but still attractive and very liquid.
San Francisco ranks No. 5, up 40 spots from last year, and would probably rank No. 1 if not for the fact that many survey respondents would probably never invest in San Francisco regardless how it is. Same for Manhattan, where policy risk questions dampen some enthusiasm and redirect capital elsewhere.
Interesting to see DC's Northern Virginia suburbs rank high, yet its Maryland suburbs rank dead last and the District is in the bottom 5. But that's the reality of the DMV, and its just governance issues-- with the District and Montgomery County competing for the crown of most conspiratorial anti-business market while Northern Virginia gladly benefits from it.
Austin and Boise both rank outside the top 20, but I'd be bet on both being in top 20 next year. ULI's list is supposed to be forward-looking, but this is example of how in reality it's still very much a present-day lens... just like San Francisco ranking No. 45 last year.
Knoxville ranks as highest tertiary market, coming in at No. 20 overall. Good market but surprised it's so high.
ULI's survey respondents put Norfolk and Milwaukee in the bottom 10, but I think they're just saying they don't know these markets. Both are very steady and interesting, low supply.
Darn it, I'll have to get a Switch 2.
Live your best raccoon life in this chaotic co-op sandbox for 1-4 players! Complete crazy missions, cause chaos, and outsmart a relentless Exterminator. 🦝
Dumpster Gang is coming to Nintendo Switch 2 in March 2027. #IndieWorld @DumpsterGangHQ
Jason Larson retweeted
Walter Isaacson asks Peter Thiel what humans can uniquely do in the AI era.
Thiel: "We're very relational… these relational dimensions will become more important."
When knowledge is worth $0, the only career skills that matter:
- networking / social calibration
- persuasion (sales)
- curiosity (harnessing AI)
- taste (curation)
- storytelling
- grit
- golfing with clients (or equivalent)
We'll get so sick of a fake world that we'll go back to doing business like it's the 1800s. A handshake at the local saloon.
Jason Larson retweeted
If you want to be great at something, the path isn't complicated. Get good at it, then keep getting better, year after year. And don't measure your progress only by money. Skill, character, and the people you've helped along the way are a better scoreboard than your bank balance.
You won’t lose your job to AI, just to someone who uses AI Better.
*MICROSOFT TO OFFER BUYOUTS TO 60,000 WORKERS IN LATEST COST CUT
This is 27% of $MSFT's entire workforce
Jason Larson retweeted
Oregon Relieves Offensive Coordinator Mehringer of Duties
goducks.com/news/2026/10/25/…
Being in Tiger 21 taught me one thing fast, the smartest money asks about downside first, upside second.
Most "passive income" in real estate is a full-time job with worse hours. The passive part is the investor's. Someone's still answering the 2 AM call.
I hate to say it, but I have had this nearly exact conversation a few times with other folks and I also largely agree. It's tough out here.
Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data.
Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen.
Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However:
- credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years.
- more people are paying rent via credit card.
- average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago
- class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month.
- starting to see these renters move down a tier
Class B:
- simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous.
- fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50%
- considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets.
Class C:
- looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up
- more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades
- tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it
- wage growth has not kept up
Lenders:
- some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff.
- a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses.
- number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall.
- data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over.
I asked “how do you think this ends?”
“Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”
Jason Larson retweeted
My entire life changed when I realized that anything above zero compounds. That showing up consistently matters more than showing up perfectly. That small things become big things. Never allow optimal to get in the way of beneficial.
