Jay_El_Cee_12

Are the Yankees’ annual summer downturns a “normal part of the game”, or are they unique? Last night, Aaron Judge had this to say of the Yankees’ current 6-13 spell: "We’re going to go through two of these a year, every good team does. …” As a quick spot-check, I looked up recent data on the Los Angeles Dodgers to see if they had endured any 6-13 (or worse) stretches. Turned out they hadn’t in four seasons. But I wanted to go a little deeper, and review the whole league. There are a lot of ways to dig into this question, but here’s how I went about it: 1. I’m defining a “good team” as any team to finish a season with 90 wins (or the W/L% equivalent in a short season). 2. Going back 5 seasons (2020-2024), I took NYY’s worst stretch within each season, and checked to see if any other (90-win) team had a stretch as bad or worse in that same season. Between 2020-2024, there were 41 (non-NYY) teams to win 90 games. Here’s the breakdown of what I found: 2020: • Yankees worst stretch: 4-15 • Number of (.556 W/L%) teams with an equivalent or worse stretch: 0 2021: • Yankees worst stretch: 10-22 • Number of 90-win teams with an equivalent or worse stretch: 0 2022: • Yankees worst stretch: 10-17 • Number of 90-win teams with an equivalent or worse stretch: 3 2023: • Yankees worst stretch: 12-21 • Number of 90-win teams with an equivalent or worse stretch: 2 2024: Yankees worst stretch: 12-24 Number of 90-win teams with an equivalent or worse stretch: 0 In total for the 5-year period, only 5 out of 41 teams to win 90 (or equivalent W/L%) games matched the Yankees’ worst stretch within a season. Even more notably out of this list of 5, there were no repeating teams. They were: TOR, CLE, & SEA in ’22, and TBR & TEX in ’23. In other words, these were one-off events in every case... except in the case of the Yankees. The Yankees have produced unusually extended poor stretches in 5 consecutive seasons, and are now possibly mired in their 6th. The Yankees have also produced several largely unmatched positive stretches in recent seasons, most notably, their 61-23 start to 2022, and their 49-21 start to 2024. While their negative stretches were very substantial, these positive spans were far greater, leading to strong overall records in the respective seasons. There have been instances of other “good” teams showing high volatility within seasons. One clear example that comes to mind is LAD’s 56-11 stretch of 2017, which was immediately followed by a 1-16 downturn. Still, this was a one-off event for LAD— not a pattern they continued to exhibit consistently in subsequent seasons. The Yankees’ ongoing pattern of volatility is astonishing in its uniqueness among contenders, not just for its reoccurrence over 6 consecutive seasons, but for its placement within the same set of months (June-August) within all 6 seasons. What exactly accounts for this pattern of volatility is complex and requires a separate analysis. But one thing is abundantly clear: this is not your average division winner’s 4-9 stretch, or 5-game losing streak. This is also not the same as "that one good team that had that one weird season". This is every year, at the same time of year, for unusually extended periods. A season-wide pattern tends to follow: 1. Scorching, unbeatable 2. Common slump 3. Extended slump 4. Extraordinarily extended slump, threatens status of season 5. Stabilized, but somewhat broken 6. Stable/somewhat broken team enters October, does their best Here in 2025, we’re at stage 3, veering into stage 4 (particularly given the July schedule). It shouldn't have to be inevitable. Let’s hope the course changes.