Matt Modi

Graphic from @propsmadness

Here is the writeup: With no Kyler Murray, finally, and Wentz starting for the Vikings we are buying in on a massive game from Justin Jefferson. He has only hit even the 70.5 number twice this season, but this is all about the matchup and the fact that Wentz is starting. Jefferson has played 7 games over the last two years with Wentz, and he has hit over 70.5 yards in six out of those seven games. The only game he missed was a monsoon against the Bears, which we can take out. His targets in those games are: 7, 11, 11, 10, 11 and 9. While he only hit 90 in three of those games, two of them can be explained away. One of the games the Vikings won by an astonishing 38 points, so at some point they just stopped passing the ball, and in another one he had 74 yards in the first half alone but Wentz had a separated shoulder and was horrific in the second half and Jefferson did not record a single catch in the second half. The other game he still had 10 targets and only caught 5, so just one of those games. As far as the matchup goes, the Bills have allowed the 3rd-most passing yards in the NFL, and the 7th-highest target share has gone to outside wide receivers, which is where JJ lines up 85% of the time. 6/8 QBs have hit their passing prop over against them. I know we are taking Justin Jefferson, so if we look at WRs they have allowed 97 yards to Tre Tucker, 138 to Puka Nacua, and a massive performance from AmonRa St. Brown as well. Jefferson is that quality of WR, so with a real QB that can get him the ball I am expecting him to blow up.