JHF retweeted
I don’t know why for the life of me that folks can’t understand that Dems have closed the “gap” simply by netting 800K primary voters in 2026. It’s a statistical mirage. They are simply moved from the no primary pool to the D pool. It doesn’t add Dem votes.
JHF retweeted
Check the 2018 map and you can spot the crossover Rs.
Williamson, Collin, and some swanky areas of Harris, Dallas, Tarrant.
The likelihood of most of the R gains in South Texas sticking far surpass the likelihood of any significant movement in Parker/Grayson/Hunt and the like.
JHF retweeted
This is our county. These are our neighborhoods.
Harris County, let's stand together and finish strong.
Early voting ends tomorrow, Friday, October 30. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
Vote Republican up and down the ballot. 🇺🇸
Been saying this. Look at kenedy county for some models being completely wrong, showing a 92/8 dem split when the county was actually a +67 trump county
I keep trying to help people see how futile it is to create a primary model for Texas since there is no party registration. Here’s an example from Hidalgo County in the Rio Grande Valley.
There were over 58,000 Dem primary voters and only 18,500 Rep. That is a D+52 split.
Trump won Hidalgo by 3 points - first GOP win since Nixon.
In these South Texas Hispanic counties, which have only moved hard right in the last six years, there still isn’t much traditional GOP infrastructure and there sure as hell aren’t many neighborhood ladies’ republican clubs. Just about every local office imaginable all throughout the Rio Grande Valley is run by a Democrat. Those are Dems like Henry Cuellar, not psychos like the ones shooting heroin in Austin.
If you want a say in local politics then you still draw a Dem ballot. Until the GOP makes permanent inroads there, that will be the way it is. But you should also know that people making models using primary share may be technically correct, they are functionally wrong by not explaining this important FACT that such counties will run hard to the right of their primary participation splits.
JHF retweeted
Dallas county looks like it had a crap day again which isn’t too surprising but it was outran by basically every single R county statewide again
JHF retweeted
These figures need more insight.
Harris only won 10 counties by more than 5 points. Of those 10, 4 had fewer than 4,000 votes cast in the 2024 presidential. One can assume any big batch from Travis County is bad for the GOP. But with Dallas high prop Dems voted out, remaining votes in Dallas aren’t too bad. Bexar County was won by less than 10 and has a lot of Republicans voting now, and Harris County was won by less than 6, and likewise has tons of Republicans in it now voting.
Only 6 counties fall into the “swing counties” description. Or should fall into it.
In the Trump by more than 5 category, here’s how that breaks down:
4 counties with Trump +5.0-9.9% margin
13 counties with Trump +10.0-19.9% margin
10 counties with Trump +20.0-29.9% margin
10 counties with Trump +30.0%-39.9% margin
18 counties with Trump +40.0%-49.9% margin
183 counties with Trump +50.0% or greater margin
Yesterday was brutal for Democrats.
JHF retweeted
Who is remaining is pretty clear I don’t want to spoil it I want lib ET to stumble across who is left to vote in Collin and Denton themselves
JHF retweeted
📊 TEXAS EARLY VOTING — SATURDAY TURNOUT GAP
Oct. 24 | Through noon CT
Compare Travis County with Montgomery + Bell + McLennan:
👥 TOTAL POPULATION
🔵 Travis: 1.39 million
🔴 Other 3 combined: 1.46 million (+4.7%)
🗳️ REGISTERED VOTERS
🔵 Travis: 945,505
🔴 Other 3: 895,978 (−5.2%)
🚨 SATURDAY CHECK-INS (7 AM–NOON)
🔵 Travis: 9,992
🔴 Other 3: 13,147 (+31.6%)
📈 Check-ins per 1,000 registered voters:
🔵 Travis: 10.57
🔴 Other 3: 14.67
The three counties have FEWER registered voters but recorded nearly 32% MORE Saturday morning check-ins.
Their participation rate was approximately 39% HIGHER.
Source: ElectionLink, Census estimates and county registration figures. Unofficial turnout ≠ candidate votes.
JHF retweeted
I think Dems are just moving the goal posts as far as needed to keep the Talarico lie alive
JHF retweeted
🚨RED WIN: Ken Paxton is projected to win against James Talarico in the Texas Senate election.
Texas - 2026 Senate (odds)
🟥Ken Paxton 55.8%
🟦James Talarico 44.2%
Projected Margin: 🟥R+1
Paxton, the state's attorney general, defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn by a wide margin in the Republican primary runoff, after securing the endorsement of President Donald Trump.
Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988. Much like Ted Cruz in 2018, Paxton could still benefit from Texas's traditionally Republican lean, giving him an electoral advantage despite unfavorable polling lately.
Forecast via @Pollsmax.
JHF retweeted
I keep hearing all this nonsense about Travis County.
You can give Travis, Harris, Dallas, and Bexar Counties each +150,000 additional margin in 2024 and Trump would have still won by over a million votes.
If the red counties vote, which they’re doing, Texas is red.
Look at a damn map.
JHF retweeted
Harris county had very weak turnout today. Will get into it tomorrow but Dem exhaustion is pretty much happening everywhere
JHF retweeted
The Dems are flooding prediction markets with bad bets to shift perceptions of reality.
It only would cost $200,000 to change Talarico’s odds from 50 to 67%
That’s a fraction of the 114 million spent on Talaricos campaign and more effective than road signs.
People don’t believe polls but prediction markets create more certainty, because who would throw away money right?
The best we can do is make their marketing stunt as expensive as possible by placing more bets on Paxton and collecting.
Once election results hit the odds will be revealed to have been way off base and the Dems will use it as a call to regulate prediction markets.
BREAKING: James Talarico surges to new all-time high in odds to win the Texas Senate race.
67% chance Talarico flips Texas blue.
🔗 polymarket.com/r/TexasSenate
JHF retweeted
Even votehub’s made up “modeled electorate” is underwater for Tankarico now.
Really seems like it’s over. Great job Dems
