
Vice Chair, Cheshire Town Council. Advocate @BikeCheshire VP @Mediabids. Proudly pro-democracy & pro-America. UConn & Trinity Alum.
Cheshire, CT
Joined February 2011
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Weโre thinking of you today in Cheshire. Get well soon @ChrisMurphyCT
Sheโs the best.
Mallory McMorrow, quoted by The Washington Post
โMichigan could very well be the state that flips control of the Senate. โฆThatโs whatโs on the line. Nothing less. And Michiganders know it.โ
โCut the shit. Lock in. Knock doors. Get out the vote. Thatโs it.โ
Link to article: washingtonpost.com/politics/โฆ
Iโm encouraged by the fact that these are all Presidential not midterms.
As Election Day nears, remember these misses from previous yearโs polls:
Maine 2020: โ Nearly every late public poll had Gideon (D) ahead (RCP and 270toWin roughly Gideon +3.8 to +6.5 earlier; individual polls often showed Gideon leads of 2โ6+ points, with almost no late Collins (R) leads. Collins won by ~8.6 points.
South Carolina 2020 โ Polls were tight or tied for much of the fall. Quinnipiac had ties at 48โ48; others showed small Graham (R) leads or even Harrison (D) edges. Graham won by ~10.3 points (54.4%โ44.2%).
Iowa 2020 โ Final RCP average ~Ernst (R) +1.4 Ernst won by ~6.6 points.
Florida 2024: โ Final RCP average Scott (R) +4.6. He won by ~12.8 points.
Pennsylvania 2024 โ Final RCP average Casey (D) +1.8. McCormick (R) won by ~0.2 points.
Ohio 2024 โ Final RCP average Moreno (R) +1.7. He won by ~3.6 points.
Texas 2024 โ Final averages generally had Cruz (R) ahead by ~4โ5 points; he won by ~8.5โ9 points
Insane that itโs this close. Awful lot of people willing to continue to enable Trump & Co to keep enriching themselves while making the rest of us poorer.
๐ MAINE EARLY VOTE: FINAL UPDATE
Final numbers:
@MaineDems: 130,833 (+30% vs 2022)
@mainegop : 62,231 (+28% vs 2022)
Dems lead by 68,602 ballots.
Thatโs larger than the 56,195 Dem early lead heading into Election Day in 2022.
The percentage gap this year is in line with the last midterm and larger than 2024โs early vote. Overall early voting finished +37% ahead of 2022.
Assuming ~61% turnout which is in line with 2018 and 2022), GOP need to win Election Day by roughly 57โ62% to erase the gap, depending on true independents.
Even in the best case for Republicans (independents breaking 60-40 GOP), Democrats can still get as low as ~43% on Election Day and win. If independents lean Democratic, they can perform even worse and still hold on.
Historically, Election Day votes have been more Republican than the early vote, and Collins has a track record of overperforming with ticket-splitters.
But a 68.6k early gap is large by Maine midterm standards โ bigger than 2022 and itโs possible turnout is even HIGHER than the 61%
Catching it would require both a strong Election Day performance and favorable independent breaks. Possible, but not the most likely outcome based on the current numbers and what polling has consistently showed.
One of the best accounts on this otherwise gaud awful site.
December 20, 1943. An American B-17 bomber limps away from a raid on Bremen, Germany, alone and barely flying.
A German fighter pilot pulls up right next to it.
He has one more kill to earn one of the highest honors in the Luftwaffe. The bomber is helpless.
He doesn't fire.
The bomber was called Ye Olde Pub. Its pilot was Second Lieutenant Charlie Brown, 21 years old, from West Virginia. It was his first combat mission.
It went wrong almost immediately. Flak tore into the plane before it even reached the target. Engines were damaged. It fell out of formation, and once a bomber was alone, German fighters swarmed it.
The attacks shredded the B-17. The nose was smashed. Part of the tail was shot away. Most of the guns were knocked out. The tail gunner was killed. Several of the crew were wounded. Brown himself was hit and blacked out as the plane spiraled toward the ground.
He came to just in time to pull it out of the dive.
Now they were flying low and slow over Germany, trying to get home on what was left of the plane.
They passed over a German airfield. On the ground, a pilot named Franz Stigler was refueling his fighter. He was an ace with 22 victories. One more and he'd likely receive the Knight's Cross.
He took off to finish the bomber.
As he pulled up behind it, he couldn't believe it was still flying. He could see right through the holes in the fuselage. He could see the crew inside, wounded and bleeding. The tail gunner was slumped over his gun, dead.
Stigler remembered something his old commander had told him. That if he ever shot a man in a parachute, the commander would shoot him himself.
To Stigler, this was the same thing. These men couldn't fight back.
So instead of firing, he flew alongside. He tried to signal Brown to land in Germany or head to neutral Sweden. Brown and his crew had no idea what this German was doing. They just stared at him, terrified.
So Stigler did something even more dangerous. He stayed right on the bomber's wing as it crossed over the German coast, so the anti-aircraft gunners below would see a German fighter there and hold their fire.
Once they were over the sea, Stigler saluted, banked away, and was gone.
If anyone had found out, he could have been executed.
The B-17 made it across the North Sea and crash landed in England. Brown told his superiors about the German who let them go. He was told to keep quiet. The story was classified.
Both men survived the war. Neither ever forgot.
Decades later, Charlie Brown started searching for the pilot who spared him. In 1990, he put a notice in a newsletter for former fighter pilots.
He got a letter back from Canada. Franz Stigler had moved there after the war.
When they met, Stigler described details only someone who had been there could know.
They became close friends. They traveled together, spoke at events together, and treated each other like brothers.
They died within months of each other in 2008.
Jim Jinks ๐บ๐ธ retweeted
One of the men who won the Nobel Prize for Chemistry last year was a Palestinian-American, Omar Yaghi.
Racist POS.
Jim Jinks ๐บ๐ธ retweeted
If opponents of road diets were honest:
"Safe streets require me to drive slower, so I'm against safe streets."
Jim Jinks ๐บ๐ธ retweeted
Washington has discovered a brilliant financial strategy. Cut benefits for people who need them, cut taxes for people who don't, and borrow the difference from people who aren't old enough to vote.
History is clear about where all this ends.
Incredible story.
June 20, 1942. A car pulls up to the main gate of Auschwitz.
Inside are four men in SS uniforms. The guard doesn't raise the barrier fast enough, so the officer in the passenger seat leans out and screams at him in German to open the damn gate.
The guard snaps to attention and lets them through.
None of them were SS. All four were prisoners. And they had just stolen the car right out of the camp.
The man who yelled at the guard was Kazimierz Piechowski, prisoner number 918. He had been in Auschwitz for two years, since the camp's very first months, when it held mostly Polish political prisoners. He was 22.
His friend Eugeniusz Bendera, a mechanic working in the camp garage, came to him with news. His name was on a list to be executed. He wanted out. He knew where the SS kept their cars. And he could drive.
Piechowski knew something too. Because of his work assignment, he knew there was a storeroom full of SS uniforms and weapons.
So they planned the impossible.
They recruited two more men, a Polish army officer named Stanisลaw Jaster and a priest named Jรณzef Lempart. On a quiet Saturday, when fewer guards were around, the four of them pushed a cart full of trash out through the camp gate. The one with the words Arbeit Macht Frei over it. To the guards, they looked like just another work detail.
Once outside the inner fence, they slipped into the building with the storeroom. Piechowski climbed in through a coal chute, unlocked the door, and they grabbed SS uniforms, pistols, and grenades.
Bendera went to the garage and took one of the best cars on site, a Steyr reportedly used by the camp commandant himself, Rudolf Hรถss.
Then they drove calmly through the camp toward the exit.
As they got closer to the final gate, the barrier stayed down. Nobody moved. Seconds felt like hours. The men in the back were sure they'd been caught.
Then Piechowski leaned out the window and shouted at the guard like an angry SS officer.
The barrier went up.
They drove away and ditched the car later. All four escaped.
The Germans were humiliated. Some of the escapees' families paid a terrible price. Jaster's parents were sent to Auschwitz and died there.
But here's the twist. Stanisลaw Jaster wasn't just escaping. He was carrying something out. A report from inside the camp, written by Witold Pilecki, the man who volunteered to go into Auschwitz to expose it.
Piechowski joined the Polish resistance and kept fighting. When the war ended, communist Poland arrested him for having served in the Home Army and sent him to prison for years.
He lived to 98 and spent his later years telling his story.
A prisoner who spent two years in Auschwitz walked out through the front gate yelling at the guards. In the commandant's car.
At the very, very least an American President shouldnโt be picking fights with Canada and allying with Putin. Such is the modest height of the bar now.
Jim Jinks ๐บ๐ธ retweeted
The Kremlin intelligence psyop that has been poisoning American politics for decades is literally burning. Ukraine removed all the Russian bots on social media, just in time for the US midterm election.
Ukraine really is defending the entire free world!
Thank you, Ukraine! ๐๐
Jim Jinks ๐บ๐ธ retweeted
Ukraine taking out Russia's bot farms weeks before the American election was fucking genius.
Itโs hard to believe these races are even this close.
Trump has single handedly driven the economy into a ditch and many Americans are barely hanging on.
























