Joe Vavra (@JoeVavra) header
Joe Vavra (@JoeVavra) profile picture

Professor of Economics, @ChicagoBooth

Chicago, IL
Joined August 2012
Photo by Joe Vavra (@JoeVavra)Photo by Joe Vavra (@JoeVavra)Photo by Joe Vavra (@JoeVavra)Photo by Joe Vavra (@JoeVavra)Photo by Joe Vavra (@JoeVavra)Photo by Joe Vavra (@JoeVavra)Photo by Joe Vavra (@JoeVavra)Photo by Joe Vavra (@JoeVavra)Photo by Joe Vavra (@JoeVavra)Photo by Joe Vavra (@JoeVavra)
I am excited to get started at JPE macro! I aim to keep decision times low, and hopefully we will achieve very tight integration with JPE to also speed the total process for those who submit there first instead
Very excited to announce the launch of #JPEMicro and #JPEMacro - new journals in the #JPolEcon family! journals.uchicago.edu/journa… I will be initial Lead Editor of JPE Macro, with a fantastic set of editors: @cristinarellano, Anmol Bhandari, @arielburst Chris Tonetti @JoeVavra
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Joe Vavra retweeted
Replying to @MargRev
This is not how we should proceed. I hope the authors and MR retract this based on a wide range of folks making a good case against this type of review / assessment.
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I'm hiring a full-time RA jointly with Rodrigo Adao, @BrentNeiman, and @HansbergRossi to work on topics relates to trade and spatial economics! Please see more details in the link below: job-boards.greenhouse.io/bfi…
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Hi Friends, Thanks for all the support for the Everywhere Millionaire. Based on bookscan sales data, it looks like we are right on the bubble of the best seller list in business for September, so if you could pick up a copy at a local bookstore *in the next few days*, suggest the book to friends, retweet this message, or post about it - we’d greatly appreciate it! bookshop.org/p/books/the-eve…
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OpenAI biz side is a cluster fuck. Weeks of back and forth and still can’t apply tax exempt status to my university subscription despite verification letter from the state, the university, and billing directly to the university. This is a 30 sec process for real companies
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Success (at least supposedly). Took 11 emails with a total of 13 attached pieces of documentation and 3 weeks.
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If you have to spray your arms and feet with some 450 degree thing you drop out of the oven, I definitely recommend not mashed potatoes
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Joe Vavra retweeted
Replying to @elonmusk
Hi @elonmusk would you perhaps be interested in participating on the fast-growth side of this bet? benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/ nitter.cf/ben_moll/status/209291…
Thanks to @willmacaskill, @SamuelAlbanie, @tomcohen for taking the other side of this bet at 4:1 odds and to @andrewho03 for joining on my side. Here are the final terms we agreed on benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/ More (within) ~7 years from now 😃
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Several @ChicagoBooth faculty members (including me) are looking to hire and work with pre-doctoral researchers, starting in Summer 2027. Come work with us! Application: chicagobooth.edu/-/media/fac… First review: Sept 21 (apply soon!) Details 👇🏻
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Economics tip: If adjusting for inflation doesn't give you the number you want, just adjust for inflation again.
BREAKING: New study finds that a minimum-wage worker in 1971 had a lifestyle affordability similar to someone making $100K today.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
There was no "new study" and the article is AI generated slop: pangram.com/history/66f624…
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More of the economy is now controlled by a few superstar firms. Under many models, this would imply increasing markups, and thus inefficiency -- but things look a little different when you possess data on one fifth of all credit card transactions in America. 1/
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Grad student visas limited to 4-years. Extension possible in principle: dhs.gov/news/2026/07/16/trum… It's impossible to finish a Physics PhD in 4 years. How hard will it be to get an extension? Will any foreigner still come to the US for a science or engineering PhD?
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Brett Matsumoto is fully qualified to be Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner, and his answers during Wednesday testimony were appropriate, indicating the integrity needed for the position. It is important to acknowledge that he is an excellent choice just as it was important to make clear why EJ Antoni was completely unfit for the position. In this case, the guardrails held, despite the outrageous termination of Erika McEntarfer.
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The reviewers will have less detailed context than the authors so I suspect in an environment with pure honest and pre registration, authors would probably find a larger set of the robustness checks problematic
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Also just randomly at least some robustness checks are going to fail even if the effect is real (but that should be true for the original author ones too)
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Of course there’s also obvious incentives for selective reporting and p-hacking by the authors. If I had to guess, on average 2/3 of the non replication is p-hacking and 1/3 is specs that might still not make sense even after the expert review. But I’ve got no evidence there…
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One interpretation is dishonesty and p-hacking, another is better knowledge of what specs actually “make sense” from first principles. Reality is probably some mix of the two
Authors can't be trusted to run their own robustness checks. In 17 AER papers, only 12/211 robustness checks "fail" with p > 0.05 (white). In robustness checks chosen by 3rd parties, almost *half* of them fail (blue). 1/
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The fact that the robustness checks flagged as valid have (modestly less) issues than the ones they flag as invalid suggests it’s not incredibly straightforward to just come up with a list of reasonable specs
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The biggest bullshit move by DHS in its history. So everyone on a O1 or H1B visa would have to stop working legally in the US, go back to their country and wait for years of backlog? This includes top scientists in our universities, founders of billion dollar companies (at least 3 just in our portfolio would be affected by the way). And if we look at individual countries it becomes even more bs. Indians would have to wait decades. Russians don’t have anywhere to go (there is no US embassy in Russia, hello?). This is the worst imaginable way to disrupt important work for the country and pretend you’re fighting some loophole.
An alien who is in the U.S. temporarily and wants a Green Card must return to their home country to apply. This policy allows our immigration system to function as the law intended instead of incentivizing loopholes. The era of abusing our nation’s immigration system is over.
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Hi friends, I’m joining @ChicagoBooth at @UChicago as an Assistant Professor of Applied AI! I’ll keep working on AI + healthcare. I’m so grateful to my mentors @UMich for helping me find work I love (but after 12 years since undergrad here, it’s definitely time for me to go 😂)
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Perhaps to no one’s surprise, Tucker Carlson just gave a full-throated defense of segregated country clubs. Out of the blue Tucker recently attacked me on his show by recounting a story I told him ~10 years ago. In his telling, my father sued a country club for not admitting him as a member. The actual story: In the ’90s, my father waged a newspaper campaign (not a lawsuit) against local country clubs because they were discriminatory – that is, they did not admit Jews, Blacks, Asians, Hispanics, etc., even as guests. My brother, who was in preschool at the time, was not invited to a classmate’s birthday party because the club where the party was held did not allow Jews inside. (Yes, even 4-year-old Jews, as guests.) That’s the fight my dad waged—at significant personal and professional cost at the time—and I’m proud of him for it. thebulwark.com/p/tucker-carl…
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