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Johnny ₿ Goode

@Johnnybitgood

Researching bitcoin and producing findings on https://nitter.cf/t.co/erEtvJ2t92 Building tools for bitcoin related financial planning on https://nitter.cf/t.co/idCGssfNna

 International waters.
btcpowerlaw.nl
Joined March 2025
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Bitcoin's floor is $66,551 today. Growth per 1 BTC: Next day: +$58, to $66,609 Next week: +$408, to $66,958 Next month: +$1,788, to $68,339 Next year: +$24,218, to $90,768 Next decade: +$770,731, to $837,282 Floor is 0.42 x the Santostasi trend. Model, not a promise.
Card: Bitcoin's floor today is $66,551. Growth per 1 BTC: next day +$58 to $66,609, week +$408 to $66,958, month +$1,788 to $68,339, year +$24,218 to $90,768, decade +$770,731 to $837,282. Floor = 0.42 x Santostasi trend, model, not a promise.

ALT Card: Bitcoin's floor today is $66,551. Growth per 1 BTC: next day +$58 to $66,609, week +$408 to $66,958, month +$1,788 to $68,339, year +$24,218 to $90,768, decade +$770,731 to $837,282. Floor = 0.42 x Santostasi trend, model, not a promise.

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Say you're 50, spend $40,000 a year, and your coins' floor growth covers it. The Observatory's test: "Stack × BFR > Annual Expenses." In its words: "Principal is never touched."
Card: Stack x BFR > Expenses. Floor growth buys free weekdays. Principal is never touched. High confidence, not certainty.

ALT Card: Stack x BFR > Expenses. Floor growth buys free weekdays. Principal is never touched. High confidence, not certainty.

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Bill Perkins in Die With Zero: "Dying with zero is not only about money: It's also about time." Floor growth isn't for more coins at 80. It's for free weekdays at 50, while you can use them.
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One honest caveat: the Observatory gives the floor "high confidence, not certainty." Keep a plan for a bad year. btcpowerlaw.nl/floor/

The Floor — Bitcoin's Rising Price Boundary

Price below the floor on about 5% of 5,900+ daily closes, recovering every time. Distribution converging at 20% per cycle. The floor is the attractor.

btcpowerlaw.nl
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Say you're 60 and spend $50,000 a year. SSA's 2023 life table gives a 60-year-old man 21.79 more years on average. An average, not a promise. Two ways to get it wrong: broke at 92, or gone at 74 with coins left and a list of trips you skipped.
Card: 21.79 years left on average at 60 (SSA 2023, men) vs $17,498 a year per BTC from the Observatory's 80% endowment tier.

ALT Card: 21.79 years left on average at 60 (SSA 2023, men) vs $17,498 a year per BTC from the Observatory's 80% endowment tier.

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Perkins suggests annuities for the fear of outliving your money. The Observatory's version is an 80% coverage tier it calls "a perpetual endowment": $17,498 a year per BTC, with ruin "functionally zero" in its tests.
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Use that as the base. Then decide on purpose what the rest of the stack is for, while you're healthy enough to enjoy it. Spending it means selling it.
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Say you save $2,000 a month for Bitcoin and you're tempted to add leverage to stack faster.
Bar chart: at $2,000 a month, Kelly plus leverage beat DCA by +43%, shorter than the three patient strategies.

ALT Bar chart: at $2,000 a month, Kelly plus leverage beat DCA by +43%, shorter than the three patient strategies.

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Leverage added risk and still trailed simply holding cash back for cheap prices.
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Backtest, not a forecast, and the leverage model is simplified. Patience beat borrowed money. btcpowerlaw.nl/research/stra…

Best Bitcoin Buying Strategy: DCA vs Trend-Aware

Sophistication is a tax at small scale. At $5k/month, cycle-phase buying generates 389% alpha vs DCA. Validated out-of-sample.

btcpowerlaw.nl
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I stress my retirement plan for a weaker power law. In the Observatory's test where the trend ends up about 25% lower by year 30, ruin for the 150% playbook tier at 6% inflation was 0.71%. That plan borrows, which has risk. It still stayed under 1%.
Card: what if the power law weakens? 0.71% ruin with a 25% lower trend by year 30.

ALT Card: what if the power law weakens? 0.71% ruin with a 25% lower trend by year 30.

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Bitcoin's floor is $66,493 today. Growth per 1 BTC: Next day: +$58, to $66,551 Next week: +$408, to $66,900 Next month: +$1,787, to $68,280 Next year: +$24,201, to $90,693 Next decade: +$770,322, to $836,815 Floor is 0.42 x the Santostasi trend. Model, not a promise.
Card: Bitcoin's floor today is $66,493. Growth per 1 BTC: next day +$58 to $66,551, week +$408 to $66,900, month +$1,787 to $68,280, year +$24,201 to $90,693, decade +$770,322 to $836,815. Floor = 0.42 x Santostasi trend, model, not a promise.

ALT Card: Bitcoin's floor today is $66,493. Growth per 1 BTC: next day +$58 to $66,551, week +$408 to $66,900, month +$1,787 to $68,280, year +$24,201 to $90,693, decade +$770,322 to $836,815. Floor = 0.42 x Santostasi trend, model, not a promise.

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I plan to leave at least 1 BTC behind. In the Observatory's floor-rate paper, the floor under 1 BTC adds about $20,000 a year as of March 2026, and about $306,000 a year by 2040. A projection, not a promise. It's the coin I'd least want to sell. btcpowerlaw.nl/research/bitc…
Card: the coin I leave behind. About $306,000 a year of floor growth per BTC by 2040 (model).

ALT Card: the coin I leave behind. About $306,000 a year of floor growth per BTC by 2040 (model).

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Say you plan to retire on $40,000 a year and size it on Bitcoin's floor price. Which floor?
Two tiles: a $31,399 floor (highlighted, always available) and a $50,460 floor (the site's floor).

ALT Two tiles: a $31,399 floor (highlighted, always available) and a $50,460 floor (the site's floor).

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The site uses the higher one. The lower one, in its words, "is always available."
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Which floor you plan on is your choice. I plan on the low one, so the plan still works if the high one breaks.
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Who’s going to the amsterdam bitcoin conference next week? I’ll be stopping by as well.
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