The main guy at @MercAnalytic. Hyper personalized basketball analytics. NBA/NCAA consulting. Connect me with players you want to succeed. More into poker now.
New Haven, CT
Joined November 2014
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Because public discourse is finally out there, this was actually the basis of the analytics project that kicked off my career in the field.
My partner (@ConnorAllen1995) and I found that the breakeven point was 79.86% in an exactly two-point game in 2016.
Nice to see Jason Kidd pioneering the foul-up-2 strategy. Based on my work with @JonathanSafir, if Zion's true FT skill is less than ~ 63% this would be a good move at the college level. (And a great move if you're in the single bonus.) kenpom.com/blog/the-guide-to…
The fact that Mathurin has wound up on the hapless, rudderless Pelicans is a pretty clear sign that even if the Pelicans have arrived at this destination through depressing means, they’re at least attempting to stab at high upside, cost-effective targets.
Mathurin discourse remains very weird to me.
I feel like nuance is kind of out the window with young guys in the NBA.
You’re either great (no analysis allowed), or you’re bad after two years, and the only year that matters is the most recent one.
Star or bust is always a bust.
Idk how much Mathurin was looking for, but it feels like the situation he wound up in with his New Orleans deal was disproportionately related to happening to shoot poorly from three on 82 when he joined a not-very-good team in the middle of the season.
That being said, the closer that you get to a championship, the more the 5-9 hole batters matter, the more the 3rd and 4th starting pitcher matters. Stars are scarce, but not so rare that they cannot be found elsewhere.
The MLB is an awful proxy to the NBA, statistically. It just always inherently will be, one is an individual sport masquerading and presenting as a team sport (baseball), the other is a free-slowing social game with infinitely definable shared resources, namely the ball.
Being married to a baddie involves standing with her at the Pheobe Bridgers official concert merch line 5 hours before the opener takes the stage
Years ago, I tried to coin the term "usage crunch."
I like "inefficient stacking" more though.
There's a lot of reasons to think the 2027 Sixers with LeBron could be most inefficient stacking of offensive talent in NBA history.
It's not just that the usage of the Rittenhouse 5 adds up to 140%. This alone is devastating. You are likely to get an offensive result that is worse than the sum of the parts.
If you look at the worst performing offensive lineups relative to their talent over the last 5 years, the top of the list is littered with such constructions. Several ishbiations of the Durant Suns teams.
Luka/Reaves/Bron lineups. With Ayton. This isn't 2K. You can't just stack high usage players and think you aren't eating diminishing returns. Most players need the ball and shots to exert impact.
It's also combining three heavy transition players and several questionable offball shooters together.
Embiid alone is tough to fit another star around. So is Jaylen. Maxey generates a lot of value from reducing team turnovers, which he'll have less opportunity to provide with the ball less. Maxey has some history of scaling down pretty efficiently with his shooting, which is nice.
If you asked me, where is Jaylen Brown most likely to be less impactful than his salary?
It's exactly on this kind of roster.
Last year, the Celtics roster was a great situation for him as he was surrounded by low-mid usage excellent role players. A substantial part of his value is in soaking up usage, which is what this team doesn't really need. Jaylen Brown has zero 60% TS seasons in his career. We need to see it this year.
The successful version of this year is one where JB cares more about defense than scoring 25 a game. He needs to exert his energy in other phases of the game. Specifically, we need to see improvements in defensive playmaking. A 1.5% steal rate, and nearly zero charges is not going to get it done, and this team could benefit tremendously on offense off those steals with transition talent. This Sixers defense with a 6'6 240 super-athlete playing aggressively and forcing turnovers feels much different than just a guy who can guard his man 1 on 1.
I expect the Sixers best lineups will include Dean Wade. An unheralded 9% usage, rapm maxxing defensive forward is exactly the type of piece that can be completely additive to an overloaded '04 Olympics lineup construction.
And then we get to LeBron.. can he be the brain of this team and get the most out of this group offensively? How cooked is he defensively at this age? Can he turn it on in the playoffs like he did last year?
It's gonna be absolute cinema.
Joseph Gill retweeted
you see this red splotch covering Gaza? it is made of red dots, each single dot represents an airstrike under the Biden’s administration. it took two years of tremendous relentless unforgiving bombing and 4 US vetos to complete. you can’t regret your way out of this.
Top officials from the Biden Administration now express regret over their failure to rein in Netanyahu. newyorker.com/magazine/2026/…
Joseph Gill retweeted
Talen Horton-Tucker back hooping on the South Side. Former Chicago Simeon basketball star (Bulls, Lakers, Jazz) back from a monster debut overseas. THT's All-EuroLeague Second Team season powered Fenerbahçe to the Final Four, the BSL Championship, Presidential Cup, & Turkish Cup – at Chicago, IL
Interesting hand from last night's home game ($1/1 with $1 BB ante). Home game plays loose/aggressive, almost always multiway.
Hero is dealt 6d3d on BU. Effective stack is $700.
Action LJ makes it $6. Action HJ and Action CO call. Hero and SB call. BB folds.
Flop ($32): Th6s4c
SB checks. LJ bets $25. HJ calls. CO folds. Hero thinks and calls. SB calls. Four ways to a turn.
Turn ($132): 6c
Checks to Hero. Hero bets $105. SB calls, LJ calls, and HJ calls. Four ways to a river:
River: ($552) Ah
Checks to Hero.
What's the play?