UPDATE: We are now seeing substantially larger cross-chain holdings associated with the Binance hack.
Here's the potential selling pressure relative to market cap and 24h trading volume:
• BTC: $1.45B (0.09% of mkt cap, 4.6% of volume)
• ETH: $883M (0.32% of mkt cap, 6.1% of volume)
• TRX: $236M (0.75% of mkt cap, 59.6% of volume)
• SOL: $95M (0.16% of mkt cap, 3.2% of volume)
TRX is particularly concerning, with holdings equivalent to nearly 60% of its daily trading volume.
The absolute BTC and ETH exposure is enormous, but both have significantly deeper markets.
1/ The Binance hack is massive, but the actual market impact could be very different from the headline numbers.
With much of the stolen stablecoins already frozen, the bigger question is which altcoins the hacker can still dump.
I went through the hacker's wallet and compared the holdings against trading volume and market cap. 🧵
1/ The Binance hack is massive, but the actual market impact could be very different from the headline numbers.
With much of the stolen stablecoins already frozen, the bigger question is which altcoins the hacker can still dump.
I went through the hacker's wallet and compared the holdings against trading volume and market cap. 🧵
10/ Important caveat: trading volume isn't the same as available liquidity.
A holding equal to 100% of daily volume doesn't imply a 100% price decline.
Actual impact depends on execution, exchange access, order-book depth and whether issuers or protocols can intervene.
11/ My biggest watchlist from the wallet is FUN, PROM, RSR, RED, OGN, SOPH, ERA and GTC.
The interesting question isn't just how much was stolen. It's how much remains transferable, how quickly the hacker can liquidate it, and which markets have enough liquidity to absorb those sales.
All figures are approximate, based on the wallet snapshot and as of about 15 minutes ago
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You are being manipulated.
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