JulesNader386 (@Julesnader386) profile picture

Just a Numbers Guy. RT’s != endorsements. Mutual aid fund here for Gaza and Sudan, donate!! https://nitter.cf/t.co/HzM4stnMir

Around NYC
Joined October 2011
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🚨NEW ANALYSIS: GOP Crossover Voters Were Likely The Difference In Wisconsin Dem Primary🚨 Over the past two months I've been analyzing the results of the Wisconsin Democratic Gov primary election, and I now believe there’s enough evidence to support the theory that enough Republican voters crossed over to vote in the primary to stop Francesca Hong from winning. Given the extremely small margin of victory for Crowley (3,673 votes), it would only take a few thousand voters to make the difference in that primary, which I do believe took place given the evidence uncovered in this analysis. I don’t make this claim lightly, nor do I recommend anyone take this analysis as a sign to support Tom Tiffany over David Crowley in the November election given the threat Tiffany represents to Wisconsin. But I do believe it’s important for Wisconsin Democrats and David Crowley to recognize this and embrace the policies that Democratic primary voters supported through Francesca Hong’s platform. (An example of this being today when Crowley announced he would be adjusting his data center policy to further mirror Francesca Hong's popular moratorium, although not a full adoption of her policy. Moves like this will help consolidate support in this blue-wave election year and take away attack lines from Tiffany, who is still trying to claim he is more populist on data centers than Crowley). In this analysis, we will be answering three key questions to support the theory that Republican crossover voters swung the election to Crowley. 1) Did the Wisconsin Governor’s primary turnout levels support the possibility of crossover voting? 2) Did Crowley’s winning coalition match with potential crossover Republican patterns? 3) Are there specific election voting patterns to directly support Republican crossover voting? Let’s dive in (1/6)
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couples costume for will neff and caroline kwan
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idubbbz casually “friends & family” mogging ethan klein, formerly of the h3 podcast.
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JulesNader386 retweeted
Leaves a bad taste in my mouth having qt fans call me a misogynist after mildly criticising her for hanging out with unsavoury types while my mentions are simultaneously flooded by incels saying ai deepfake porn is no big deal bc i defended poki for not forgiving atrioc idk mannn
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Idk whats more shocking, Beto O’Rourke or Spider-Man being there 😭
El Paso is ready to win.
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JulesNader386 retweeted
Republicans are bombing in WEST VIRGINIA right now and some people still think they don’t have a turnout problem 💀
West Virginia's early vote through Oct 29: about 115,000 ballots, in-person plus absentee. That's already 87% of the entire 2022 early vote. By party registration, the early vote is R+2 so far. At the end of early voting it was R+10 in 2022 and R+19 in 2024. 🧵
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JulesNader386 retweeted
Within the margin of error in the theoretical ethnostate 😂😂😂
New - Mayor Democratic primary poll - New York (Jewish Democrats only) 🔵 Jessica Tisch 44% 🔵 Zohran Mamdani 42% Honan Strategy Group - 10/7
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JulesNader386 retweeted
Damn. One of the best ever. RIP
Patrick Stewart has sadly passed away at the age of 86.
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JulesNader386 retweeted
Ethan Klein to his crew member! "Try watching a video for once!" H3 Crew member Replies "Try Not cheating on your wife!!!!!!!" Multiple H3 Crew members laughing in the background! They knew! They fucking Knew! ALL OF THEM KNEW FOR MONTHS!!!!
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U.S. Senate Candidate N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas is left STUNNED after Hasan's community helped raise $20,000 for her campaign in a matter of minutes😭
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JulesNader386 retweeted
Replying to @niquijr
to further clarify, the screenshot i showed on stream was a censored version of what was shown on Atrioc's stream. it wasn't anything he hadn't already shown and the site can no longer be accessed as it was taken down a couple years ago. there's been a lot of misunderstanding of what's happened and sadly i felt that the gravity of the situation wouldn't have been understood or believed if i didn't show the initial incident (though censored). i privated the vod because i now understand the harm even that can cause. i've talked about this directly with the women affected, even before i made my first statement, because their feelings are and have been incredibly important to me as someone who has gone through the same thing. i've been continuously encouraged by them to share my experience and feelings (and doing my best to be mindful of them throughout). for that i'm very grateful because it feels really difficult to be in a situation where people either don't know or forgot about something that felt traumatizing.
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JulesNader386 retweeted
leaked DMs between GWAM (girl without a job) and someone else, in which she continues to defend Ethan and go after Hasan 💀💀💀
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With voting virtually wrapped up today, Democrats hold a 9.4% turnout lead - which has kept the GOP to a 1.8% vote cast lead (despite having a 11% registration advantage) Republicans are WAY BEHIND where they were at this time in 2024 #flapol
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JulesNader386 retweeted
My favorite part about this clip is just imagining Buttigieg reeling internally when he called himself a socialist lol that probably made him so uncomfortable
Rest in power comrade
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JulesNader386 retweeted
Angie Nixon is on fire. She pulled off a huge upset in her Florida primary, and she’s going to do it again on Tuesday. Let’s take on Musk and the billionaires. Let’s get out the vote and elect Angie Nixon to the U.S. Senate!
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JulesNader386 retweeted
Kacey on Ethan Klein's absence online: "Where is he now? Where are the hourly updates? Where are the instagram stories? Come on! The way he finally shut the fuck up."
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JulesNader386 retweeted
Excellent analysis by @Julesnader386 on the effect open primaries have boosting anti left candidates
Shout out to @theGhostOfRiel for the great visualization of Crowley crossover voters! This is prevalent now given Haley Steven's is trying to undermine Abdul El-Sayed's support in the final days, when it's clear she also was boosted by Republican crossover support in her primary and nearly won because of it.
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JulesNader386 retweeted
We need your help getting out the vote to reach undecided voters and to let people in CA-34 — the heart of Los Angeles — know that there is an Advocate for Justice on the ballot.
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JulesNader386 retweeted
While Republicans are at an almost R+2 lead statewide right now, I wanted to look at the Turnout by Party Diff. It is truly unbelievable at this stage of In Person Early Voting to see Democrats with almost a 10 point lead in turnout by party registration. You can find more of this data on the new "More Splits" tab. jaysonfrascatore.github.io/F…
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AB @_Starkilla bravely leaves Twitter to post on threads, and it’s going great!
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JulesNader386 retweeted
oh my god
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