Development economist. American in South Africa. Working on economic growth at @coeff_giving.
Pretoria
Joined December 2009
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Justin Sandefur retweeted
New working paper: Can AI forecast treatment effects in economics from pre-registration documents?
Answer: Yes. 1/
Justin Sandefur retweeted
What is the link between tax collection and development?
We hand-collected new data on the cost of tax collection across 100 countries, historically, and across subnational states.
💡There is a strong positive correlation between efficiency of tax collection and development 1/
Justin Sandefur retweeted
You love to see it. RIP protectionism as populism.
wsj.com/economy/trade/how-ta…
Justin Sandefur retweeted
I’m confused here. Why is it a problem that Chinese companies are investing in manufacturing entities and infrastructure in African countries that create jobs to employ Africans (and ultimately reduce the flow of economic migrants to Europe and North America)?
Good @FT article about Chinese companies opening factories in Africa to serve the US market, generally tariff-free b/w AGOA and most African countries not facing Trump 301 tariffs.
US needs to rethink rules of origin—low tariff US-Africa trade should not benefit China….
Justin Sandefur retweeted
This is a great job. It’s a chance to apply economics to real world policy problems and work with @LeahRosenzweig and @rglenner! centerforglobaldevelopment.a…
Justin Sandefur retweeted
My column for @FT: In contrast to many established democracies, where voter registration has historically been dependent on individual initiative, in India the state assumed the burden. That reversal is at the heart of a growing political confrontation giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…
Scott Bessent seems to agree with the lefties at Eurodad.
home.treasury.gov/news/press…
This is pretty good on how the World Bank's quest to 'leverage' private investors has limited their ability to work in the poorest countries and most strategic sectors.
Private returns and social returns don’t always go hand in hand, who knew
assets.nationbuilder.com/eur…
Justin Sandefur retweeted
Some impressions from the Bank-Fund meetings in Bangkok:
1. The words are all negative but the numbers are all positive. Is all about unprecedented waves of shocks and risks while the IMF upgraded the forecast to something even stronger.
2. No one cares about tariffs anymore, they expect them to continue forever and have adjusted and moved on.
3. Everyone cares a lot about high interest rates. They expect them to continue forever but they haven't moved on.
4. Oil prices fall somewhere between these two. Everyone cares some, aren't sure if they'll continue and have partially moved on.
5. Everyone is having exactly the same conversations about AI as they are having here: will the demand boost continue, is it a bubble, will it kill jobs, when will it show up in productivity. I sensed much more optimism than pessimism and finance ministers and central bankers are not particuarly interested in p(doom).
6. No one seemed to mind that Scott Bessent didn't bother to attend.
"How to accelerate catch-up growth after transformative AI"
New on @chat__GDP from @externalidades, complete with handy flowcharts
chat-gdp.org/p/how-to-accele…
Justin Sandefur retweeted
In 1800, Mali's per capita GDP was roughly 5x smaller than Britain's. Today it is 25x smaller.
The Industrial Revolution widened the gap and two centuries didn't close it.
AI might cause a new growth acceleration in frontier economies. How can poor countries bridge the gap faster this time?
This is pretty good on how the World Bank's quest to 'leverage' private investors has limited their ability to work in the poorest countries and most strategic sectors.
Private returns and social returns don’t always go hand in hand, who knew
assets.nationbuilder.com/eur…
Justin Sandefur retweeted
"Tax Productivity and Economic Development: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Analysis", a new working paper with Radika, Anders, David, and Yuntian. We quantify the fiscal capacity story in a macro model with a tax collection sector.
I'll write a full thread about it once the NBER working paper is out. For now, I leave you with this graph. Link in the first comment.
Justin Sandefur retweeted
There is talk of a "China Squeeze" i.e. the argument that China, unlike others before, does not "shed" lower value products while moving up the value chain. This seems altogether incorrect. The chart below shows that there are plenty of less complex goods in which China's
Justin Sandefur retweeted
Jak se za 3 roky politicky posunula Jižní Amerika.👇
Z prakticky čistě levicové na prakticky čistě pravicovou, pokud vyhraje Bolsonaro ve II. kole v Brazílii.
Jsem zvědav, za jak dlouho to pak bude zase celé červené. 😀
On the Brazil news:
Interesting how education polarization is moving the opposite direction from most of the world -- except maybe Mexico. Old style class politics still rules, more than ever?
Justin Sandefur retweeted
ETHIOPIA AT WAR: What Is Next? | Cameron Hudson youtube.com/live/mC5390Or8zQ
