Keith Alan

Is $BTC setting up a trap before Friday’s PPI print? 📉 While testing the 200-Day SMA makes sense for macro support, the lower timeframes tell a much riskier story for anyone looking to open a trade right here because: 💠 No Direction: Price is stuck between an unconfirmed breakdown and recovery. 💠 Weak Volume: Low volume and a lack of higher highs/higher lows (1H, 4H, Daily) mean this bounce lacks real strength. 💠 The Trap: Expect choppy price action to lure in overeager speculators before the macro data drops - the heaviest concentration of leveraged positions on either side of price is likely to get hunted first. The Bull Case: Fundamentally, a cool PPI report that lowers the odds of aggressive rate hikes in December/January could easily flip this script bullish. Otherwise, a heavy concentration of shorts near current price could trigger a short squeeze. The Bear Case: Essentially the exact opposite of above. A hot PPI report that increases the chances of aggressive rate hikes in December/January or a heavy concentration of longs near current price is likely to trigger the next leg down. If PPI is flat, expect more liquidation ping pong as price chops down and to the right until bid liquidity and volume return. What’s your move - are you buying the chop or waiting for Friday to reevaluate? 🎯

Is the next leg down coming for BTC? Altcoins are taking the hardest hit as ETH dominance breaks support. BTC dominance is still climbing toward resistance, while stablecoin dominance presses for a breakout. To be clear, that's a defensive shift away from ethereum:native and alts. If STABLE.C.D confirms the breakout, be prepared for bitcoin:native ’s next leg down.

After FED Governor Christopher Waller’s hawkish comments on Monday, the probability of a December rate hike spiked to 99% overnight.

$BTC price is pinned between the 50W and 21W SMAs. I’d like to see price drop into a support test near the 200W to close the remainder of my short. The macro structure and thin order books leave room for lower prices before a breakout can be validated. That test is possible, not inevitable - and it doesn’t have to happen this week. In fact, the weekly view is starting to lean bullish.

In today's BitBreak, we’ll look at the order book, higher-timeframe structure, Ethereum and altcoin rotation to determine whether this is a constructive support test or preparation for another leg lower. youtu.be/utOE3QivpAs

$BTC is attempting to recover from multiple intra-week support tests at the 50-Week SMA, which has beautiful confluence with the bottom of the consolidation range. As strong as this support level looks from both a technical and structural perspective, we can't confirm its durability before the W close. If it holds, price needs to rally through 3 different Timescape R/S Flip Lines at $78,380, the Q4 Open at $83.5k, and the Yearly Open at $87.5k before we consider any breakout attempt to be durable. If support fails at $75.5k, I'm expecting a visit to the $69k - $73k range. To gain some insight about the likelihood that support holds, look to 4H candles to monitor volume and whether BTC returns to an unbroken sequence of Higher Highs and Higher Lows. We currently have declining volume and no consistent sequence of HHs and HL's. NFP and UNRATE data coming in < 30 mins. Buckle up for volatility.

Here's my outlook for BTC, ETH, and Alts through the rest of the year. materialindicators.com/analy…

BTC failed to hold $80k, and now we see the first 4 hour candle testing support at the trend line. If this candle holds above the trend line, a series of higher 4H lows, and a D candle close above $79,425 would be extremely bullish. Losing the trend line opens the door to a support test at the Timescape R/S Flip line at $78,380 - the last structural support before a retest at the 50-Week SMA. More to come...

Starting the day with a clear mind and a positive outlook. Now it’s time for coffee and charts. Deep crypto market analysis analyzing BTC, ETH, and Altcoins coming later today. Lock in.

That's a damn near perfect support test at the 50-Week SMA. Do bitcoin:native bulls have enough momentum to sustain this rally?

Where will Bitcoin find macro support? Liquidity is shifting in the BTC order book. If bulls lose the 50-week SMA we could see price cascade down in search of macro support. youtube.com/shorts/8AK_T2tca…

How do you think markets will react to the outcome of today's midterm elections? Here are 3 scenarios to consider: 1. Democrats sweep the House and Senate. 2. Democrats win the House. Republicans maintain control of the Senate. 3. Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate. Each scenario is going to have different impacts on the power Trump has, the progress legislators can make, and the global economy. I don't want to know which side you're voting for, but I am interested in how you see the outcome impacting BTC price along side the broader equities market.

Taking care of business. #vote

BITCOIN BUYERS ARE GETTING ABSORBED — WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/2kEbYYRRP…

The next major $BTC support test may be coming into focus. Bitcoin has lost its macro trendline support, and the rejection from the $78,380 Timescape R/S Flip Line reinforces the bearish structure. That puts the 50-Week SMA squarely in focus as the next major support test. Will bulls defend the 50-Week, or is a deeper correction ahead?

With just hours left in the monthly candle bitcoin:native is down 7.3% since the Q4 Open. So much for "Uptober". This isn't an "I told you so." It's a reminder of why I've cautioned against trading narratives. Uptober. The 4-Year Cycle. Fed policy. Political promises. Different stories. Same risk. I'll be watching tonight's Monthly close for a new Trend Precognition signal that could offer fresh insight into where momentum is headed next. Narratives shape expectations. Price action and data reveal reality. Will the Monthly close confirm the bearish momentum or signal a potential shift?