Barry Brandt

INVEST 91L UPDATE: NHC has now increased the chance of development to 80 percent.... The area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf continues to become better defined and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today. In addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure area later today. Key messages for the Central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach): *This feature will bring elevated coverage of showers and storms over the next few days, but no day will be a wash-out. There will be good periods of sun. Just expect occasional tropical showers. *91L is not expected to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane, the main concern is from periods of heavy rain and a few waterspouts. *There will be a high danger of rip currents tomorrow through Wednesday. *Showers thin out along the coast late in the week as the tropical low moves west away from the region.

TROPICS: Tropical storm formation is not expected at least for the next seven days. Models have totally backed off on the idea of a broad tropical low in the northern Gulf next week.