Kalshinomics

A year ago if you told me I'd be speaking at a sports betting conference I'd say you were crazy. I probably watch 2 hours of sports a year. But it happened. I've done a bit of a 180 in terms of my opinions. When I first started looking at prediction markets I thought - "the non-sports markets are important and the sports are a necessary evil to get revenue." In some ways my opinion has flipped. From a market structure perspective sports prediction markets are far superior to the state-regulated sportsbooks. And much of the problematic / dumb stuff is in other markets, e.g. insider trading on events (so far the people they catch mostly bet under their own name, WOW what an incredible KYC), easily manipulated things like mention markets, betting on TV shows that are already taped etc). I still like the wisdom of crowds, it's the implementation of that wisdom that feels a little yuck. And yes there's a reasonable debate about taxation, effective regulation, and help for problem gamblers. But with this better model, there is plenty of room to be a better product and solve those issues. This is not an endorsement of any specific platform - competition (lacking in the OSB market) will lead to an even better product for the user. I still think most people shouldn't bet on sports for any significant amount of money, but for those who want to, shouldn't they lose less? Back on the Whirligig Bear Substack I wrote some of my thoughts about attending BetBash, it was fantastic meeting many folks I've followed online who were very generous in person. @halfkelly @capjack2000 @d_feustel @spanky @ssigsbee @roiguy123 @Flupnolide @BigBuckHunterrr @goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj @CitadelSportsLV