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With a minor caveat of a possible ~5% fall in #Nifty to 22,800–23,000 in a worst case, my short‑term bearish view ends there.Barring that, I’m extremely bullish on Indian markets over 12–24–36 months.
Right advise from Nitin. So never buy any broking stocks for a start. 👇
I keep saying this: for any regulated business, the biggest risk is regulatory risk. Today's IRDAI draft on insurance commissions is a good reminder.
Broking is no different. A change in rules around retail F&O trading, how brokers can earn on client float, MTF requirements, or any of several other areas can change the economics of the business almost overnight.
So when valuing regulated businesses, you can't just extrapolate current revenues and profits into the future. One regulation change can alter the economics, and the stock price along with it.
Pretty much everything in fintech comes with this risk 😬
It is true that a very important principle in investing is you don’t have to make it back the way you lost it. And in fact, it’s usually a mistake to try and make it back the way that you lost it. WB in 1995 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting.
KANS Capital - Mind The Gap retweeted
FII Index Futures Shorts at an Extreme - Highest Ever.
( adj for lot sizes )
Sentiment is stretched. RSI is oversold & Positive Divergence.
But Short covering needs a trigger.
US 10-year at 5.2
Can Trump TRUMP the shorts with some positive change in the US-Iran conflict?
KANS Capital - Mind The Gap retweeted
“You only need one or two good stocks a decade. You don't need a lot of action.”
— Peter Lynch
KANS Capital - Mind The Gap retweeted
Yesterday was the sharpest fall in Indian equities since July. Nifty closed at 23,063, down 1.6%. Sensex lost about 1,250 points. Midcaps fell over 2%. Here is what I think actually happened and what today could look like.
KANS Capital - Mind The Gap retweeted
Good morning, folks !
Markets making lower lows.. 22,800 is the next support - right on the falling channel.
The shock are not helping - latest is the IRDAI paper.. remember banks is 30-40% of the index still - so it hit where it hurts..
Global yields are on a upward march as well.. not great for EMs..
Views👇
#GIFTNIFTY #BankNifty #Trump #IranWar #NSE #IRDAI #Insurance
Oil @ $106.
Iran's President denies nuclear bomb ambition.
Bond yields on the move (again). 10-yr yields +10 bps
#Nifty next support 22,800 (lower end of channel)
Set-up @_prashantnair
#GIFTNifty #BankNifty #IranWar #Trading #Options #Insurance #IRDAI #PBFIntech
KANS Capital - Mind The Gap retweeted
BREAKING: New images show at least 5 massive, separate fires burning across Russia's Perm oil refinery, one of the largest in the country, after this morning's Ukrainian drone strike.
Sure thing. Trump would definitely come forward and accept the proposal and end the war within 7 days. He is the greatest president ever.
#IranUpdate ‘it’s America that must choose. We didn’t start the war. Do not wish to fight’ Iran’s President tells Fox News. Iran proposes a 7 day plan to end the war which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, US response awaited, per New York Times. Brent trades below $106/barrel
#Trump bilateral with President Xi underway, discussion on AI took place ahead of the state dinner @CNBCTV18News @CNBCTV18Live #China
KANS Capital - Mind The Gap retweeted
All the retail folks who were damn bullish at 24400 are damn bearish at 23070 thats the problem - i had the opposite view at 24400 and have the opposite view now at 23070.
The time to "initiate" bearish views & trades was when Nifty was 24400/- now at 23000 there is a good 1400 point shaved off - with biggest trigger being higher crude and bond yields spikes triggered by inflation - You simply cannot initiate bearish trades here - pick up any war in history and tell me when have things escalated or large scale attacks launched when the dignitary of the stature of such as President and Foreign Minister are in the adversary's territory - the answer is never.