Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research Disclosures: https://nitter.cf/t.co/nt41hCywAE
New York
Joined October 2014
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FYI: I have officially retired from Schwab. Today was my last day. Going forward any posts will reflect my personal views and not those of the company. For Schwab's take on markets, see my brilliant colleagues' posts: @CollinMartinCS , @KevRGordon and @LizAnnSonders.
So Econ growth is accelerating, job market is stable/strong and inflation is elevated-so sit on your hands. Hmm.🤔
I remember when we had to watch money supply to predict open market operations and guess if the Fed changed policy. It was a great way to learn and good for speculators but a silly cat and mouse game. Not sure why we want to go backwards.
Fed communications: Many express a desire for less Fedspeak. I don’t necessarily disagree but I am curious as to why? What does less information accomplish?
Kathy Jones retweeted
Treasury staff showing some sense. Despite Bessent demanding bigger buybacks the staff isn't paying up just to get filled on 6BN. This was a stupid idea from the beginning. If you want to manipulate the bond market reduce on the run supply at the QRA in 11/5. Jeez
I remember when the Fed didn’t communicate, but we knew the reaction function. Money supply was key. We watched the numbers and open market operations. More vol and higher risk premia in those days but also trading opportunities. What’s the upside of new comms policy?
“Warsh would be prepared to raise interest rates at September’s meeting if inflation readings released in coming weeks are hot, and markets ratchet up their expectations for increases in borrowing costs, the people familiar with his thinking said.”
ft.com/content/debe096f-ec89…
Have to say I am glad my colleague @CollinMartinCS is tasked with interpreting the Fed news. I am not sure what the strategy is for policy, reaction function or communication. I guess time will tell.
Kathy Jones retweeted
I saw it first hand this weekend at Grand Park. Girls flag football is here, it’s real and it’s time we accept it. The competition is good. The athletes are elite and the gameplay is simply just fun to watch.
More here⬇️
inpreps.com/2026/07/26/op-ed…
@IndianaPreps #INPreps
