@KnightBladePMi
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$NQ | Oct 2 | Three and Done ⚔️
The Tape: NFP came in weaker than expected. $NQ read it as relief on rates and less pressure for a Fed hike, and trended higher from the print.
The Session: 3 trades, 0W/3L, -$1,289.80, -2.89R. Bias was long and a bullish pattern was printing. I shorted anyway, into the same higher timeframe resistance zone I flagged on Sep 30. Three losses in a row. The platform closed at 10:17. Still a profitable week. My objective is to handle drawdown the right way, that's a step in the right direction
The Learning Opportunity: T2 came 67 secondsafter T1 loss. That one was revenge, not a setup. The rule caught what my composure didn't: third loss, platform closed, every stop on the tape. Sometimes the best trade is sitting on my hands and trading what's in front of me, not what I think should happen.
$MNQ $QQQ $ES $SPY Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | Oct 1 | One Pattern, Seven Cuts ⚔️
The Tape: A big push higher in the London session swept the prior liquidity above, then gave it back. $NQ sold off into the open, and a hot ISM print at 10:00 confirmed the move. Yields have since reversed hard. That is the thing to watch into tomorrow.
The Session: 7 trades, 5W/2L, +$899.80, +3.29R, 100% CS. Capture 15.9% of total opportunity, my mechanical bias was long, but a bearish pattern built through pre-market, well before the open. I traded the pattern, not the table. All seven shorts came off that one structure. Zero direction flips.
The Learning Opportunity: T3 came 43 seconds after the T2 loss. I said the stop and target out loud but didn't write them, and I felt the agitation. It won +0.59R. I file it as a process loss anyway. Then I talked myself down, waited six minutes for T4, and closed the platform after T7. My data says T8+ is where the damage starts.
$MNQ $QQQ $ES $SPY Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
Ghost PM edition - $MU: The Second Derivative Decides ⚔️
$MU beat and guided Q1 above. Neither is the trade today. The beat was expected, and it was smaller than in the last few quarters.
Two management comments will set the direction.
One: gross margin bottoms in Q1 and improves through fiscal 27.
Two: no line of sight on when supply and demand return to balance.
The second comment can be read two ways.
Bull read: the market prices durability. A tight supply and demand balance that runs past mid 28 into 29 and 30 keeps margins elevated for years. The stock works from here.
Bear read: the market prices the second derivative. "A more moderate rate of price increases" means prices still rise, but more slowly. A slower pace of price increases puts the durability of these gross margins in question. The stock is due for a small pullback.
Same stock. Two different calls. Let's see
$MU is the catalyst tech needs for a breakout. Which read wins today matters for $SMH and $QQQ , not just one name.
$MU $SOXX $NQ $QQQ Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | Sep 30 | Wrong Idea, Positive R ⚔️
The Tape: Core PCE came in cooler, 3.0% vs 3.3% expected. $NQ caught a bid off the print and trended higher all morning with no real pullback. Last day of the month and the quarter, so the afternoon belongs to rebalancing flows. $MU reports after the close.
The Session: 6 trades, 5W/1L, +$739, +1.43R, 100% CS. My mechanical MTF bias was short. I mapped a higher timeframe resistance zone and faded into it: five Range shorts and one pattern trade. No bullish pattern printed, so there was no long to take for me.
The Learning Opportunity: The idea failed. The session didn't. On four of five winners I took a partial at 1R and protected the runner at breakeven, and those runners got stopped as price kept lifting. The one full loss held its stop at -0.87R. That resistance zone is a swing thesis into $MU . My scalp edge is patterns on the lower timeframe, and I'm keeping the two apart. Being right is optional. Making R out of being wrong is the job.
$MNQ $QQQ $ES $SPY Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | September 29 | Mental accounting is the enemy ⚔️
The Tape: Heavily supported by $SMH , and even more by memory with $DRAM . Outside those large components the tape was bearish. The 15min tf is developing a bearish pattern targeting a new low below 30,360, which could make for an ugly close.
The Session: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$876, 3.10R, 100% CS. Capture 17.27% of total opportunity, A+B pattern grade ratio 100%. That is 1.03R per trade. T1 and T3 were textbook: 15 second pattern backed by the 15min bearish structure. T2 was a poor entry followed by a fear exit.
The Learning Opportunity: Second to last day of the month. Near month end I tend to make up a number and chase it. There is no monthly objective. Any day is like any other one. I wrote that down before it could move a single order.
$MNQ $QQQ $ES $SPY
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | September 28 | Four losses, four stops ⚔️
The Tape: Bearish from the get-go. Rates kept climbing and that was the whole story. Plenty of bullish AI headlines, and none of them mattered. 662 points of trend on offer all morning.
The Session: 10 trades, 6W/4L, +$550, -0.80R, 100% CS. Capture 4.63% of total opportunity, A+B pattern grade ratio 70%. Pattern recognition was off: entries all over the pattern, and I only saw the third pattern in the debrief.
The Learning Opportunity: This morning's pledge was to accept losses before taking a position. Four losses at a full unit, none came off the tape. Learning to take losses without feeling frustrated is the ultimate goal here
$MNQ $QQQ $ES $SPY
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | September 23 | Strong macro pressuring stocks via rates ⚔️
The Tape: Bearish on the 9:45 PMI print, which sent the 10-year up 17bps and through 5%, the psychological barrier that has held since last week. Equities went down with it. robinhood:0xc0d6457c16cc70d6790dd43521c899c87ce02f35 held green into Connect tonight, which could decide whether the bullish momentum continues.
The Session: 6 trades, 6W/0L, +$1,289, 3.47R. Capture 12.15% of total opportunity. Short on the bearish pattern at the open, long once price reached the 1H pivot and bullish structure started to print. One flip, never back.
The Learning Opportunity: T5 was the only trade today above 2.5 eRR, the strongest setup in my book. I held it 89 seconds and took 20% of plan to protect a green session. Then re-entered with T6 on a 1.0 eRR setup. Same money as holding T5 to target, five times the risk.
The three trades where I ran the partial at 1R and left the runner alone captured 66%, 81% and 73% of plan. The procedure works when I run it. The leaks were the two trades where I replaced it with a decision.
$MNQ $QQQ $ES $SPY
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | September 22 | Opening bid doing the work ⚔️
The Tape: Strong bid from the open, led by robinhood:0x072f979c2cac8e1391b0162a87fee094bf8744a0 again with $MU out front. Trump at the UN did not move much. The real driver was the pre-market headlines on another potential Iran deal and Hormuz situation moving in the right direction.
The Session: 9 trades, 6W/3L, +$273, 1.69R, 100% CS. Capture 5.77% of total opportunity, nine trades is my highest count in over a week and the pledge this morning was specifically to limit trades and prioritize quality.
The Learning Opportunity: The second half setups were better, not worse. Average eRR at entry was 2.15 against 1.65 in the first half. What failed was extraction. Those setups returned 16% of plan.
Across every winner since Sep 16, split by where the session stood at entry: flat sessions, or T1, take 105% of plan, red sessions take 74%, green sessions take 33%. Fourteen trades now and the gap is more than 70 points.
T9 carried 4.26 eRR, the best setup of the day, and returned 27%.
Readiness 1 and near record HRV this morning. Best instruments I have logged, broken pledge. Confidence and good mood are risk flags, not green lights.
$MNQ $QQQ $ES $SPY
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | September 21 | The market find its Muse ⚔️
The Tape: Spectacular bid led by $META, where the Muse personal agent app is taking North America by storm. Strength reinforced by $SMH, and in a rare feat $IGV joined the party too. The market never looked back from the open.
The Session: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$413, 2.27R, 100% CS. Capture 6.85% of total opportunity, A+B pattern grade ratio 100%. Deliberate process to reduce trade count and it worked, though I should be better at recognizing a trend day and letting some air into the trades.
The Learning Opportunity: Both trades today repeated something I can now measure. My first trade of a flat session takes 107% of its plan on average. A trade taken with the day already green takes 53%, and the last three average 37%. T2 carried 2.02 eRR, the best setup of the day, and returned 35% of plan. Same as Friday, where the 1.76 eRR trade returned 27%. The highest quality setups are returning the least because i'm protecting the p&l, same fear as taking a loss, pointed the other way.
$MNQ $QQQ $ES $SPY
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | September 18 | The pattern outranks the bias ⚔️
The Tape: Strong again overnight, similar to yesterday. Rates went back up hard, so the bond market is still deciding which way to go post-FOMC while the curve is flattening significantly. And the dumbest pair trade out there was in full display: long $SMH, short $IGV and $MAGS to a lesser extent.
The Session: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$839, 2.06R, 100% CS. Capture 12.01% of total opportunity, A+B pattern grade ratio 100%. My mechanical bias was long. All three trades were short, because bearish patterns were printing and I followed them. A bias is a prior. A printed structure is evidence. The pattern wins.
The Learning Opportunity: T3 was the best setup of the day at 1.76 eRR and it returned 27% of its plan, because I moved the breakeven stop early to lock a profit. The best pattern of the session produced the smallest number because the management was tightest on it. And T1 was entered way too early on bearish newsflow rather than the pattern. Newsflow should support the bias, not determine the entry.
$MNQ $QQQ $ES $SPY
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | September 17 | The bias made the setups invisible ⚔️
The Tape: Significant bullish gap at the open following yesterday's FOMC. The market said Warsh's communication was already priced in. Broad-based strength with $SMH and $MAGS leading, while rates retreat a bit
The Session: 3 trades, 1W/2L, +$100, 0.17R, 100% CS. Short bias from the 15min and higher timeframes, playing a retracement into Friday's zone. The retracement did not come. Three shorts, zero flips, 167 points on offer and 5.95 taken.
The Learning Opportunity: What the thesis cost was attention, not money. I was focused on the range resistance and did not notice the bullish pattern printing. Both printed patterns went untraded while I took three range entries against a level.
The counterweight: low action days are historically where I overtrade. My last five sub-200-point sessions ran 42 trades for -$1,463. Today was three. One more than I should have taken, but three.
$NQ $QQQ $ES $SPY $MNQ
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | September 16 | Hawk-tuah market 😁⚔️
The Tape: Nothing in the morning. No pattern, no structure worth taking. I took a break at 10:30 and came back at 13:30 to see what FOMC would bring. During the presser a clean pattern emerged and showed up on the chart. Money was lying on the floor. I went down and took it.
The Session: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$789, 3.33R, 100% CS. That is 1.67R per trade, Average dollar risk $234 against a recent average of $421. Exit capture 110%, both trades at target, both exits planned in advance. First entry 14:30:37. Last exit 14:56:02. Twenty-five minutes of exposure on a six and a half hour wait.
The honest caveat: neither trade lost. A session that never goes red proves nothing about whether the containment layer holds.
$MNQ $QQQ $ES $SPY
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | September 11 | One direction, six times ⚔️
The Tape: Bullish move mostly done overnight and it kept going on an in line CPI. Range all morning session, the close should be interesting. Either this is a relief rally refueling before going for a new low, or the market is starting to smell that rates and oil are toppish from here.
The Session: 6 trades, 6W/0L, +$1,348, 3.36R, 100% CS. Capture rate 28.64%, the best of my last twenty sessions. Five A grade patterns, one B. All six short. Zero direction flips.
The Learning Opportunity: The structure said fade the extension into the top of the range. Eleven years running a long only book trained me to build the thesis first and let the chart catch up. Today the thesis stayed in the notebook and the level did the work. Data says picking a side and holding it is worth more than any setup I own.
$NQ $QQQ $ES $SPY $MNQ
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | September 10 | 1st session after (very) long week-end ⚔️
The Tape: Bearish PPI print sent rates $TLT and crude $CL skyrocketing. Something has to give here. Equities were fairly resilient in the circumstances.
The Session: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1,116, 1.49R, 100% CS. Capture rate 16.03%, the best in my last twenty sessions. Two longs into the 08:30 print, thirteen seconds after the number, on a macro idea and not a pattern. Both stops did their job for a combined -$603. Then I flipped short and stayed short the rest of the day.
The Learning Opportunity: The stops held on a losing open. That is the whole story. Today began with two losing positions inside ninety seconds and both came off the tape the way they are supposed to, by being hit.
The part to file honestly: I re-entered 37 seconds after the second loss, against a three minute floor. It won. A correct read arriving 37 seconds after two losses is indistinguishable in the moment from a revenge trade, which is exactly why the pause exists. Process failure regardless of the money.
$NQ $QQQ $ES $SPX $MNQ
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | September 1 | Should not have opened the platform ⚔️
The Tape: Bearish trend day with plenty of opportunity. Oil re-escalation pushing WTI toward $90, rates higher
The Session: 6 trades, 2W/4L, -$433, -0.82R, 100% CS. One direction, six for six short, zero flips.
The Learning Opportunity: The decision was made before the open. Event last night, poor sleep, readiness 3. I decided to give it a go and that was the mistake.
T3 is the trade. $927 of risk on a 77-point stop, more than 50% over my ceiling, on the worst risk-reward on the board. Widest stop, largest position, thinnest edge, all the same trade.
Next time, proper sleep before any session, even if it means starting late.
$NQ $QQQ $ES solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr $MNQ
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | August 31 | Fifteen for fifteen ⚔️
The Tape: Large caps carrying since Friday's Warsh speech, small caps significantly underperforming. That relative flow benefited a handful of megacaps, $NVDA $TSLA are notable today. Sixth straight choppy opening session on my count.
The Session: 5 trades, 5W/0L, +$741, 2.03R, 100% CS. One direction, five for five short, zero flips. Fifteen consecutive sessions at 100% confidence score with zero stop removals. Target achieved, now size ladder process taking over. August closes, a perfect month on stop discipline.
The Learning Opportunity: The honest part. The rules were not tested today. No losses, no post-loss state, no gate to hold, no frustration to sit through. Execution was poor, 4/5 entries were early in the pattern, 80% against a target of under 30%. Exit capture 35.8% below target as well.
Trend will show up in September. Need to be ready mentally and physically.
$NQ $QQQ $ES solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr $MNQ
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | August 27 | Clean session, loud institutional ghost ⚔️
The Tape: Uncertain about taking the next leg higher after the blowout FY28 $NVDA revenue guidance. The number was there. The follow-through was not. Choppy, a market unwilling to commit to the story it had just been handed.
The Session: 8 trades, 6W/2L, +$938, 2.57R, 100% CS. Counter to 13/15. Zero process breaches, the first fully clean session since Monday. Capture rate 23.6%, by far the best of the month. One direction, eight for eight long, zero flips, after three straight sessions with three flips each.
The Learning Opportunity: I leaned heavily on a higher timeframe bullish pattern aligned with a fundamental read. The $NVDA FY28 revisions imply roughly 20% DCF upside and I was expecting at least a 10% move in the name to lead the index. It stayed short a bit. I forced trades on that premise all morning. Good result, but aggressive with the long bias, and I clearly feared missing the move. Best day of the week by P&L. Worst by extraction. Both of those are the same decision.
$NQ $QQQ $ES $SPX $MNQ
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | August 25-26 | Two sessions, one lesson ⚔️
The Tape: Real choppy into the $NVDA print and Jackson Hole. Two days of a market refusing to commit, alternating red and green, leadership narrow, nothing trending. The kind of tape that punishes activity.
The Sessions: 14 trades for -$364 Tuesday, 10 trades for +$103 Wednesday.
The Learning Opportunity: The read was not the problem. Tuesday posted the highest pattern grades grade ratio of my record at 92.9%. Wednesday posted the highest exit capture of my record at 70.4%. The patterns were there and I kept what I caught.
What failed was everything downstream. Three direction flips both days on a tape where the data says one-direction sessions run four times the average return. Both days had a single trade with the widest stop of the session, over my dollar risk ceiling, on the worst risk-reward on the board. Tuesday: -$1,004. Wednesday: -$804. Third time in five sessions. That trade announces itself through the stop width before the order goes in.
And the part I need to sit with. Five consecutive sessions have now been rescued by a trade taken after a gate had already fired. Five for five. That is not variance, it is a training schedule, and what it teaches is that the trade after the gate is where the money is. Filing all of them as process losses.
Stops held 24 for 24 across both days, through eleven losses and two positions I should not have been in. That layer is holding. The session management layer is the weakest it has been all month.
$NQ $QQQ $ES $SPX $MNQ
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | August 24 | Let's use TGA to revive SMH? ⚔️
The Tape: Heavily rotational again at the open. $SMH sold off hard, $MU and $SNDK leading it down, while resources, ag and commodities were strong. Choppy after the initial selloff as $NQ tried to form a bottom here.
The Session: 5 trades, 4W/1L, +$548, 1.55R, 100% CS. Respected session counter to 10/15, double digits for the first time. Best efficiency numbers of the month: profit factor 5.59, exit capture 53.6%, average dollar risk $320. Zero gate breaches, zero over-ceiling positions, zero early entries. Five trades against a cap of ten.
All five short. Zero flips. It was tempting to flip-flop and I convinced myself to stick to a one-direction day. That decision happened consciously and in real time.
The Learning Opportunity: The euphoria meter read 8 this morning, the highest I have logged. Every previous above-neutral stretch produced a tell. A fronted entry, a headline-driven long against my written bias, a session that ran to thirteen trades. Today there is no tell to find.
Feeling good and focused on the process, less on fear of losing. This is exactly the stretch where I fell for euphoria before. The work now is staying grounded and not getting excited about uncertain future extrapolation.
$NQ $QQQ $ES $SPX $MNQ
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
$NQ | August 21 | The answer to Thursday ⚔️
The Tape: Heavily rotational at the open. Relative winners were metals, ag, healthcare again, biotech and refiners, all strong. Relative losers were $MAGS and $SMH. $NQ tried to lead into the opening and that is where the opportunity came from.
The Session: 8 trades, 5W/3L, +$790, 0.58R, 100% CS. Respected session counter up to 9/15. A+B grade pattern trade 100%, exit capture 64.2% against an L20 sessions of 42.9%, capture rate 12.6% of overall opportunity. Closed the platform after T8 and did not press.
The Learning Opportunity: T5 was the best thing in the session and it was a loss. I cut size to 2 contracts specifically to keep frustration low and wrote it down as I did it. Size as a state management tool, not as an expression of conviction. It stopped out for $163 loss and the session never tilted.
T6 was the one to fix. Only long of the day, against a bias I honored on all seven other trades. Felt like playing hero. Every counter-bias trade this week lost money. No exceptions.
$NQ $QQQ $ES $SPX $MNQ
Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️