running @majorkeycap | big bets, deep research
fourth turning
Joined May 2015
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Lucas retweeted
The most boring product in finance is on Ethereum.
In March 2024, BlackRock launched a money market fund on Ethereum. The fund holds short-term US government debt. The investor gets a token instead of a line in a brokerage account, and the interest arrives as new tokens in the wallet.
The product is the same. What changes is the plumbing: a share settles in seconds, even at 3 in the morning on a Sunday.
Tokenized funds, bonds and other real-world assets on Ethereum: $16.5B. On BNB Chain, the next largest: $5.7B. Source: rwa.xyz, 24 Sep 2026.
@LDuennes with Pascal Hügli (@pahueg).
Full conversation and the slides: majorkeycapital.com/question…
This is research, not investment advice.
Lucas retweeted
Ethereum fees got so expensive that almost nobody could use the network. But the blockchain itself did not crash.
In May 2022, Yuga Labs tried to sell land that only exists online. They created Bored Ape Yacht Club. Everyone tried to buy at the same second. The news that week said Ethereum crashed. It did not stop for a second.
The chart in this clip shows 0 hours of downtime since July 2015. That means hours when Ethereum produced no blocks. Other blockchains on the same chart did have downtime.
@LDuennes with Pascal Hügli (@pahueg).
Full conversation and the slides: majorkeycapital.com/question…
This is research, not investment advice.
Ethereum may be the biggest bubble in finance or maybe we are simply valuing with the wrong method...
unlike all the newly emerging on-chain businesses that are easy to value, Ethereum is a different beast and deserves a very unique approach.
the entire 70min conversation with Pascal (@pahueg) along with over 80 slides from the Ethereum valuation framework can be seen here: majorkeycapital.com/question…
enjoy!
Is Ethereum the biggest bubble in finance, or are we reading it with the wrong method?
This is the $300B question: because all the $ETH is worth exactly that, but yet the network took only in about $193M in fees over the year before. That is roughly 1,700 times its yearly fees.
Valued like a company, that number makes no sense. Our founder @LDuennes and Pascal Hügli (@pahueg) spent 70 minutes on whether a network should be valued like a company at all.
Full conversation and the slides here: majorkeycapital.com/question…
There's a new version of this post
Lucas retweeted
Latest LNMS with @LDuennes
youtu.be/RULO7SHpJcs?si=-mG-…
What we talk about:
-Why everyone might be valuing Ethereum wrong
-Is Ethereum the biggest bubble in finance?
-Why “ultrasound money” may be more meme than valuation model
-What Ethereum actually is if it’s not a company
-How to measure Ethereum’s real fundamental demand
-Why Lucas’ model called ETH’s direction 76.4% of the time
Spotify: tinyurl.com/y25985zt
Apple: tinyurl.com/44zjpf5x
Fountain: tinyurl.com/ytfe7czj
Runble: tinyurl.com/ysnvmdak
Is this finally the great renaissance for NFTs that we've been all waiting for?? Are we finally leaving memecoins behind and focus on art and culture again??
I guess we're so back.
Sign up now lads: nfw.fun/r/lduennes
many pointing to short liquidations, etc – guys, price and on-chain fundamentals are highly reflexive. we've built the first science-backed valuation model for ETH and it called exactly that recovery three weeks prior !!
do not neglect fundamental flows... few
The question going forward is now: ARE WE IN A NEW BULL MARKET FINALLY ??
Well, we have seen +20% rise in ETH price yesterday, but also +386% more fee-flows than the day prior.
It's not for certain, but the fundamentals point to strong ETH demand and if this manifests also in the weeks and months ahead, then you are likely looking at significantly higher prices for ETH than today...
Well, are we so back??? Yesterday, has not only seen $ETH rally by +20%, but Ethereum has also seen +380% more fee-flows than the day before!! This is actually a great sign for fundamental economic strength of ETH.
Due to reflexivity and the study in my working paper, this could ignite another phase of on-chain renaissance for the next few weeks, with the @majorkeycap 'Flow Regime Matrix' in the Terminal already having shifted into "Expansion" regime.
Remember: 45 day horizon should continue to be bullish based on that data, its not only about short liquidations – this signal is purely about Ethereum's economy.
You can see here, how the signal very closely mirrors the same regime April 2025, where the implied fair value for ETH rose and then market price followed suit, marking a strong bottom and a +200% rally followed.
This time we see both market price and implied fair value jumping simultaneously, which strongly indicates to me, that the bottom is in for ETH and we have finished the price-based capitulation.
At worst, we only have a some more of time-based capitulation ahead before we commence the next bull market. This will be a fun next few 24 months me thinks.
I will keep you guys updated, but you can also see the data in real-time in the @majorkeycap Ethereum Terminal.
We will soon launch the daily 'ETH Reading' which will update you in the same way as terminal users get updated every day, with even more data in there!
Lucas retweeted
we’re like a barbaric ancient tribe that just got rain for the first time after 80% died
94.6% of wallets that first bought $ETH after the ETFs launched are underwater. This means every quarter from Q4 2023 to Q3 2026 averaged above today's price.
The people who used to explain why you hold ETH stopped. Your favorite influencer sold, others dropped their ".eth" and many completely left. Whatever you believed about ETH, you are now the only one maintaining it.
But here's the truth: we hold very little ETH. Our first-principles model has told us "overvalued" before and we published it. That is the only reason to read anything we write. We are not price-cheerleaders.
The entire method is published, ungated, and not even an email is needed. Read the working paper. If the paper does not convince you, our comprehensive "Ethereum valuation framework" research report will not either.
BitMine holds 5.8M ETH at an average cost of $3,105.99 and trades at 0.84× the value of what it holds. That discount is the market's valuation opinion.
What is yours?
majorkeycapital.com/ethereum…
Lucas retweeted
Regulation and custody arrived years ago. What never did: a way to value Ethereum that a fiduciary could sign — documented, falsifiable, tested on data it had never seen. This page shows what that looks like.
majorkeycapital.com/ethereum…
Lucas retweeted
> Be a crypto investor
> Have lots of cash after the bear market
> Think bear market is over
> Excited to invest again
> Go through all tokens
> Realise tokens still have the same problems of infinite supply, monthly unlocks, no clear equity <> token alignment
> Realise that after 2 years, there are still < 10 investable tokens
Lucas retweeted
Ethereum runs an economy. People pay fees to use it every day, and those fees are public — so they can be counted.
Count them against the coins in circulation and you get a value for ETH. We published the number and the method.
What did you think Ethereum was before this?
BREAKING: Ethereum is currently on track to see 17.78 million transactions this week, which would place it at the fourth most active week in history!
Against most consensus, activity is clearly not leaving Ethereum, it’s flourishing!!
This is +37.56% more on-chain activity than last week. But overall the activity resulted so far in -28% less fee flows vs last week driven by low gas prices. Is this Ethereum‘s vision coming into reality?
The clear sign however is that the implied fair value for $ETH is catching up to its market price, therefore regime has now moved from contraction to recovery.
Lucas retweeted
For the handful of traders that 'made it' from memecoins and got rich…
…there are millions of empty souls spending their last available funds this month in the hope to make it out of this hamster wheel, just to lose it on insiders trading against them.
But it doesn’t need to be this way. You’re better off sticking to established assets (BTC, ETH, SOL, etc) and build strong frameworks you can rely on. The only problem is: this takes hundreds of hours of research and in-depth studying.
But don’t worry, we did the work - for you. The most comprehensive valuation framework for Ethereum is now live and does not cost you a subscription or yearly investment banking contract.
It’s available for $199 one-time and contains 14 chapters that walk you from what Ethereum and ETH are fundamentally, why they are needed in today’s economy, how they transform financial markets and how to actually value it.
Get it here: majorkeycapital.com/ethereum…
The entire magic of outperforming most of your peers in markets relies on frameworks. You have to have a thesis and you have to continuously test it - that’s it.
But allocating based on opinions or even worse, relying on narratives is not a sound investment decision. It works for trades at best, and at worst, looses you a significant portion of your portfolio.
That’s why it’s always smarter to rely on metrics and constantly measure them. Up until recently there was no reliable way to do that for the 2nd biggest blockchain to date: Ethereum.
Most funds and investors relied on incomplete metrics like TVL, token burn, active wallet counts, etc. Some other tracked whale wallets or other external drivers. Most could only recite narratives like 'ultrasound money' or 'ETH is money' which are hard to quantify at all.
Now there’s a solution for anyone that allocates to $ETH or intends to hold it.
After months of research I’ve discovered that 76.4% of ETH‘s price direction can be explained out-of-sample by its fundamental demand alone. And even 14.4% of its exact price can be computed from this new metric, which is called 'Flow Intensity'. It stems from demand-side fee/flows from Ethereum‘s on-chain economy in relation to its entire token supply.
The entire methodology and working paper is free to read here: majorkeycapital.com/ethereum…