LP Picks

LAKERS VS. WARRIORS LUKA VS. YAXEL CHOOSE YOUR CHARACTER… ROUND 2: FIGHT!

NBA POTD #2 | (10/21) 🏀 Sandro Mamukelashvili Under 10.5 Points (+102) | @FanDuel #lakers Mamukelashvili put up strong preseason numbers (averaging roughly 13–14 points in about 20 minutes), but those came with Walker Kessler limited or unavailable and expanded opportunity in a still-settling Lakers frontcourt. Kessler is expected to start and play significant minutes as the primary rim protector and interior anchor. That immediately compresses Mamukelashvili’s role to a bench stretch big / connector rather than a high-usage option. Last season in Toronto he averaged 11.2 points on 21.9 minutes; with Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves dominating the ball and Kessler soaking up center minutes, 18–22 minutes with lower usage is a more realistic range on opening night. Opening-night minutes are rarely maximized for non-stars as coaches manage workloads and evaluate rotations, and the Warriors’ length and switching (even in a depleted state) can make life harder for secondary scorers operating off the ball. Mamukelashvili’s scoring has always been efficiency-driven rather than volume-driven—he needs open threes and opportunistic touches rather than creating his own offense. With the stars handling the bulk of the creation and Kessler in the paint, the path to clearing 10.5 is narrower than the preseason line suggests. The under offers a clean spot against a player whose ceiling is real but whose floor and consistent volume remain tied to minutes that should be more restricted tonight. ❤️ If your tailing ‼️ Powered by @PropsEdge 📊 | Code LP20 for 20% off #Gambling𝕏 #NBA #BettingX

NBA POTD #1 | (10/21) 🏀 Jabari Smith Jr Over 18.5 PR (-111) | @Novig #rockets Jabari Smith Jr. averaged 15.8 points and 6.9 rebounds last season, which is about 22.7 combined and 4+ clear of tonight's 18.5. He's trending up too: over his last 15 games he averaged 17.9 points and 7.7 rebounds in 38 minutes, about 25.6 combined. In his last 5 games of last season he cleared 18.5 every time, with 22, 24, 30, 24 and 21 combined. That stretch included a 9-point, 12-rebound game in Game 6 against the Lakers, so even a bad shooting night didn't sink him. Boards give him a floor when the shot isn't falling. The matchup helps. Houston opens at home against Dallas, and Smith averaged 16.0 points and 8.3 rebounds against the Mavs last season across 3 games in 37 minutes, about 24.3 combined. Over 14 career games against Dallas he's at 16.1 points and 7.3 rebounds, about 23.4. In the Dec. 6 meeting he put up 22 points and 8 rebounds on 10-of-19 shooting, a 30 combined. Opening night also tends to mean heavy starter minutes, and he's a locked-in starter who plays 35+ a night. In last year's playoffs he averaged 17.5 points and 8.5 rebounds in 42 minutes, so Udoka trusts him when it matters. I'm on Jabari Smith Jr. Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds. ❤️ If your tailing ‼️ Powered by @PropsEdge 📊 | Code LP20 for 20% off #Gambling𝕏 #NBA #BettingX