Donald Lee

🏇 Would going forward have helped Ka Ying Rising? Tempted was brilliant in winning The Everest, posting a new peak WFA Performance Rating of 106.5 ⏱️⚖️📊. That improved on her last start 105.2 and, coincidentally, matched the 106.5 Ka Ying Rising ran to win the race last year. Much of the discussion has naturally centred on the beaten $1.35 favourite and the ride by @zpurton . I think the criticism is unwarranted. The early speed and post-race data give me little reason to think pushing Ka Ying Rising harder to secure a more forward position would have improved his result. 🔹 What would going forward have cost? The early speed was hot. From the overhead footage, it was clear Ka Ying Rising’s natural speed on the day wouldn’t get him across without additional urging. Purton had to decide in a split second whether asking for that effort was in the horse’s best interests. Afterwards, it’s easy to identify a preferred position outside the leader and think that if he pressed forward, he would have won the race. The more important question is what it would have cost to get there. Even from where he settled, Ka Ying Rising travelled +3.9 lengths above the TopRate standard to the 800m, exceeding his high from 24 previous starts of +3.6. So, relative to standard, he travelled faster to the 800m mark on Saturday than he ever has before. While his reputation as an exceptionally fast horse is well earned, his elite overall times have historically come largely from a controlled early pace, then blistering speed over the final 800m. He rated 112 on the occasion he ran that previous +3.6 figure to the 800m mark, so this doesn’t mean Saturday’s early speed was beyond his capabilities. A repeat of that 112 would have seen him win comfortably. He managed 106. What the comparison does show is that settling behind the leaders didn’t mean he was travelling too slowly and could have simply gone faster without consequence. Asking him to exceed his natural speed to join the battle up front could arguably have left him finishing further behind. 🔹 Purton backed his horse’s ability Before Saturday, Purton had ridden Ka Ying Rising 22 times for 20 wins. He knows the horse exceptionally well and was best placed to judge how he was travelling at that moment. He was riding one of the highest-rated sprinters we’ve seen, with a clear edge over his rivals on established times, sectionals and overall performance ratings. There’s a familiar saying in racing: “Ride it like the best horse.” I think that is essentially what he did. The last thing a jockey wants is to compromise a horse’s chances by doing too much in the first 300–400m, especially when its ability gives it a clear advantage. Sometimes you have to accept an imperfect position, “take your medicine”, as jockeys say, and trust the horse’s superiority to carry it through. On this occasion, it didn’t. That alone doesn’t make the decision wrong. 🔹 There wasn’t a powerful finish suggesting unused energy Ka Ying Rising’s final 200m sectional was +1 length above standard. He worked steadily to the line, while Tempted deteriorated slightly to -0.6, and others behind him finished similarly. He wasn’t powering through the line like a horse with plenty of unused energy. His finishing data offers little support for the argument that he could have spent considerably more early and still produced enough late to win. He covered some extra ground, encountered a soft track for the first time (or at least one that wasn't firm), and was racing away from home. Those are variables to consider when explaining why he regressed below his best. I wouldn’t automatically treat the soft ground as an excuse, but the combination of circumstances may have contributed. Even allowing for those factors, his 106 was disappointing against the 110 - 114 level he had consistently shown since last year’s Everest, with a last start peak of 119. Three races later, Cross Tasman carried 60kg, sat four-wide without cover and won. That is a different race and horse, but it is a useful reminder that a difficult trip doesn't automatically cost a horse the opportunity to win. Given Ka Ying Rising’s exposed talent relative to his rivals, saying the decision to take a sit and not press forward cost him the race goes too far. My assessment is that Purton made a reasonable decision in real time, and the subsequent data supports it. Ka Ying Rising wasn’t good enough on the day, under those circumstances. Tempted deserves full credit for reaching a new peak and beating him. Even an exceptional horse starting at $1.35 still has to produce the performance to win. History shows time and time again that racing offers no certainties.