George Lwanda (@LwandaGeorge) header
George Lwanda (@LwandaGeorge) profile picture

George Lwanda

@LwandaGeorge

Economic adviser writing about what makes African mineral projects financeable. Critical minerals, mining governance and energy transition.

 London, United Kingdom
Joined February 2023
  • Tweets102
  • Following156
  • Followers58
African critical-minerals policy will not succeed on ambition alone. It must pass the credit committee. Here I examine mineral finance, bankability, mining governance, energy transition and AI governance. The test is simple: can policy survive implementation?
1
1
66
Friday stress test: a dry period cuts the water available to a mineral processor. Which response is funded: storage, alternative supply, lower throughput or temporary shutdown? A contingency needs a cost and a trigger.
9
Recycled process water and new water entering a mine are not the same flow. A water balance tracks inputs, storage, reuse and losses. Use it to test the operating plan through wet and dry periods.
9
A mine's water risk is not captured by a permit alone. Test seasonal supply, competing uses, storage and recycling together. Then ask what a dry period does to processing, costs and cash flow.
Four water-risk checks cover seasonal supply, usable storage, achievable reuse and monitored losses. Test wet and dry conditions. This is a conceptual review with no project volumes or drought forecast.

ALT Four water-risk checks cover seasonal supply, usable storage, achievable reuse and monitored losses. Test wet and dry conditions. This is a conceptual review with no project volumes or drought forecast.

9
Which term would you examine first in a mining contractor's finance: payment delay, contract termination or equipment redeployment? Choose one and explain how it changes the borrower's ability to repay.
12
George Lwanda retweeted
The SAIIA Journal (@SAIIAJournal) profile picture
The SAIIA Journal@SAIIAJournalOct 22
Drawing on six comparative cases, @LwandaGeorge argues that labour market reform transcends traditional left–right political divisions. What lessons can South Africa draw about making reform politically feasible while protecting workers? Read: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
Image from The SAIIA Journal (@SAIIAJournal)
1
1
41
My labour-market reform article is published in the South African Journal of International Affairs. It asks whether political ideology determines reform outcomes. Personal research, published 12 October: doi.org/10.1080/10220461.202…

Labour market reform beyond the left–right divide: A comparative analysis of structural adjustment...

This article examines labour market reforms across six countries – the United Kingdom, Germany, China, Australia, New Zealand and Spain – to investigate whether ideological orientation determines r...

tandfonline.com
1
11
My article's central argument: protect people before increasing labour-market flexibility. Build transition support into reform and use clear triggers to prevent permanent delay. doi.org/10.1080/10220461.202…

Labour market reform beyond the left–right divide: A comparative analysis of structural adjustment...

This article examines labour market reforms across six countries – the United Kingdom, Germany, China, Australia, New Zealand and Spain – to investigate whether ideological orientation determines r...

tandfonline.com
1
8
Which transition protections would make labour-market reform credible to workers and jobseekers in South Africa? My article asks readers to look beyond political labels to sustained formal employment and who bears the costs. doi.org/10.1080/10220461.202…

Labour market reform beyond the left–right divide: A comparative analysis of structural adjustment...

This article examines labour market reforms across six countries – the United Kingdom, Germany, China, Australia, New Zealand and Spain – to investigate whether ideological orientation determines r...

tandfonline.com
1
8
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's €99.1m Mota-Engil Africa loan covers equipment, working capital and refinancing. My distinction: financing mining services is not the same as funding a new mine. ebrd.com/home/news-and-event…
18
A mine and its contractor need different credit tests. For a contractor, examine service payments, contract duration, equipment costs and the ability to redeploy assets. Mine-level economics do not answer every borrower-level question.
Two panels compare a mine's mineral-sale cash flow with a service contractor's contract payments and equipment costs. The message is to identify the borrower and test its own repayment cash flow. This is analytical guidance, not a lender's published credit assessment.

ALT Two panels compare a mine's mineral-sale cash flow with a service contractor's contract payments and equipment costs. The message is to identify the borrower and test its own repayment cash flow. This is analytical guidance, not a lender's published credit assessment.

8
Processing decision: a test recovers more mineral but produces a less concentrated product. What evidence would decide the route: buyer limits, price adjustments or extra treatment costs? This is a hypothetical trade-off, not a project claim.
13
Recovery is the share of a mineral captured during processing. Product grade describes its concentration in the output. Read both alongside impurities and buyer specifications. More recovered material does not, by itself, prove more saleable value.
4
A strong recovery result needs a second question: from which samples? Check whether test material represents the ore planned for early production. A good laboratory result is not the whole processing case.
An evidence chain connects the planned ore, representative samples, processing tests and product specifications. The key question is whether the samples support the operating case. No project performance is shown.

ALT An evidence chain connects the planned ore, representative samples, processing tests and product specifications. The key question is whether the samples support the operating case. No project performance is shown.

10
If an African mine reports cash generation, what would you check before expecting a dividend: the borrower, repayment order or distribution restrictions? I'd start with the legal entity that actually holds the cash.
6
Kodal's 13 October filing traces cash from Bougouni's operating company to Kodal Mining UK, which repaid the Hainan facility. My test: which entity has cash, and what obligations stand before a shareholder receives it? investegate.co.uk/announceme…
Bougouni Lithium Project Quarterly Update | Company Announcement | Investegate

Bougouni Lithium Project Quarterly Update | Company Announcement | Investegate

Comprehensive details of regulatory and non regulatory announcements from FTSE 100, 250, AIM and techMARK quoted companies

investegate.co.uk
30
Mine cash is not automatically shareholder cash. Trace the cash through the operating company, shareholder loans and distribution rules. A project receipt and a parent-company dividend are different events.
A three-step review asks where cash sits, which debt obligations apply and what distribution rules permit. This is a conceptual review sequence, not a universal payment priority or a particular mine's cash flow.

ALT A three-step review asks where cash sits, which debt obligations apply and what distribution rules permit. This is a conceptual review sequence, not a universal payment priority or a particular mine's cash flow.

11
For practitioners: which document has been most useful in distinguishing a signed mineral-project loan from funds ready to draw? A public example would help readers follow finance beyond the announcement.
7
A condition precedent is a requirement that must be met or validly waived before an agreed obligation takes effect. In project finance, read the drawdown conditions. A signed loan can still wait on permits, equity or other documents.
6
A mineral-finance announcement is not proof that funds can be drawn. Ask what is signed, which conditions remain and whether drawdown is available. Track the financing stage, not just the headline amount.
🤖 Made with AI
Four financing stages: announced, signed, conditions met and funds drawable. Ask which stage the project has reached. This is a conceptual sequence, not evidence about a particular project.

ALT Four financing stages: announced, signed, conditions met and funds drawable. Ask which stage the project has reached. This is a conceptual sequence, not evidence about a particular project.

6
The mine-closure stress test: production stops earlier than planned. Is enough funding available for rehabilitation and aftercare? Who can call it? What remains uncovered? If the answer depends only on future profits, the downside case needs work.
13
Load more