Triangulating markets through technicals, sentiment, & macro MO: A Community for traders seeking an uncommon edge https://nitter.cf/t.co/4VCCRiG5bE
Austin TX
Joined December 2015
- Tweets17.1K
- Following1.6K
- Followers31.4K
- Likes20.4K
MACRO OPS retweeted
A week like this one lights up every screen on a portfolio manager’s desk. Each demands action. Each sounds certain.
This week’s essay is about where his attention goes when the market seems to force his hand, and what the managers who have lasted decades do differently.
In markets: energy kept rising while agriculture fell. January Brent moved higher and December WTI crude drifted toward its 2x target. December lean hogs cascaded through their target in textbook fashion, January orange juice broke down, and silver closed the week at a critical juncture. In equities, Cheniere Energy broke out on earnings, and energy names continue to lead the screen.
Read this week's issue:
research.macro-ops.com/p/thr…
MACRO OPS retweeted
I fully believe Bari Weiss when she says she doesn't care about collapsing ratings. The only reason to care about ratings is profit, and that's not why Larry Ellison, at the age of 82, suddenly went on a frantic shopping spree to purchase Hollywood's studios (Paramount and Warner Bros), news outlets (CBS, CNN), and social media (TikTok).
Ellison is the second-richest man on earth. He is not motivated by money-making in the last stage of his life. He bought all these news and entertainment outlets to turn them into Israeli State TV, to try to stem the rising disgust Americans harbor for Israel.
Ellison is one of Netanyahu's best friends. He's the single-largest donor to Friends of the IDF. His only political cause is Israel. All the key people he and his son hired as Israel loyalists. So Bari Weiss is telling the truth: her job isn't to increase ratings but to convert CBS into Zionist propaganda.
During her on-stage interview, according to the article, Bari Weiss dismissed concerns about weak ratings at 60 Minutes by saying: “I could never build anything if I were focused on the precise number of people that happen to tune in to the second feature on 60 Minutes on a given Sunday.” theinformation.com/articles/…
MACRO OPS retweeted
What’s coming was avoidable, but Republicans in Congress let Trump start a war, increase spending, arm a genocide, betray MAHA, and cover up for Epstein’s coconspirators. I was ousted with over $30 million of foreign lobby money for refusing to go along, and here we are.
MACRO OPS retweeted
Not the calendar company this market wants 😬
Holy pumpkin! Nasdaq 100 $QQQ gapped down 2.5%, while Financials opened higher. The only 3 prior occurrences were during 2000 dot-com.
Following first signal on April 11, the S&P 500 $SPX plunged 10% in 3 days. Looks like tech stocks just wished everyone a spooky Halloween.
ALT Chart from Bluekurtic Market Insights showing the S&P 500’s historical price performance on a logarithmic scale. Red markers highlight four instances when the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gapped down 2.5% while the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) opened higher: April 11, April 17, and August 3, 2000, and October 30, 2026. The three previous occurrences clustered around the dot-com bust. An inset highlights the 2000 signals, while a red arrow identifies the latest occurrence.
MACRO OPS retweeted
From 1995 to 2000, technology sub-industries experienced 36 independent drawdowns of 20% or more, compared with 22 since 2024. With that in mind, don't rule out further, potentially more painful drawdowns—a common feature of major innovation cycles.
MACRO OPS retweeted
Again read this every fucking day! Druck will forever be goat and you need to know when to walk away from the herd.
MACRO OPS retweeted
Trump is reportedly planning to restart war with Iran after the election.
Some of us have been briefed on the war plan. And while I cannot disclose any details, I can say this: the plan is insane. It will not achieve objectives and will set off a new cycle of escalation.
MACRO OPS retweeted
This is insane.
Dear Director Patel @FBIDirectorKash,
In 2024 I sat in Alon Alexander’s mansion in Miami Beach with the brothers, their father, the rest of the family, and a disbarred attorney who went to federal prison for helping drug traffickers obstruct justice, and I was told it was gang initiation time.
My target was Evan Torgan, the attorney representing the women who had come forward against Oren, Tal, and Alon Alexander. The family believed Torgan was being paid to orchestrate the women and extort them. I was asked what my connections were to the FBI and the Department of Justice. Oren told me they had already hired another private intelligence operative to gather information on the women. They could see an indictment coming.
The disbarred attorney was Samuel Burstyn. He served 42 months for conspiracy to obstruct justice on behalf of a drug trafficking organization. That is when I stopped thinking of it as an intelligence job and started thinking about what could physically happen to Evan Torgan.
I said no. I called Evan Torgan and warned him. Then I contacted the FBI, told your agents what I had seen, and handed over every electronic communication between me, the brothers, and the family. That is part of what I heard in that house. I am leaving out the rest on purpose, because I will not put anything in public that could hurt an investigation.
Yesterday the brothers were sentenced to 30 years each. Judge Caproni called what they did monstrous. She was right. But that sentence closes only half of this case.
The other half is in the Peacock documentary The Wolves of Real Estate: The Alexander Brothers, and I did not understand its full extent until I watched it. The film reports that a victim was told by an investigator that her children had been mentioned. Victim 4 dropped out.
Director Patel, that is not crisis PR. That is not intelligence gathering. That is a woman who reported a rape being told that someone knows where her children are. I believe it was witness intimidation, and I believe it was criminal.
I am asking you to open an investigation into the PR firms, the investigation agencies, and the individual investigators who were paid to target, discredit, and intimidate these women and their lawyer, and where the evidence supports it, to charge them.
I am also asking you to widen the case. Oren told me about other billionaires. He told me about a victim being held in a dungeon in a billionaire’s house in the Hamptons. I cannot prove what he said. You can. The brothers did not operate alone, and I believe there are more victims who were silenced by exactly this machinery. The people who helped this family, protected it, and hunted its accusers should not get to watch the sentencing on the news and go back to work.
These women did their part. They spoke, and they were hunted for it. The brothers who raped them got 30 years. The people who hunted them got paid.
Fix that.
Respectfully,
Everett Stern
HSBC Whistleblower
Founder and Intelligence Director, Tactical Rabbit
MACRO OPS retweeted
That's insane!
Available cash on the NYSE as a % of market cap is at its lowest level in history.
Investors are essentially "all in," with leverage adding to the risk.
With interest rates this high, a mean reversion seems increasingly likely.
Definitely not an ideal time to build a long-term position at these levels.
MACRO OPS retweeted
Markets have a busy day ahead of them with FOMC this afternoon followed by $GOOGL and $MSFT earnings after the close. As always, it's not the news that matters but the market reaction.
As for today's early action, Russell small caps have taken back leadership from the Nasdaq, but it's the semis running alongside the Russell this morning not the banks. The megas are mixed with most of the Mag 7 red, but that's not enough to keep VOLs bid. VIX is well into the 17s now and VIX futures are all headed lower.
Both market models continue to improve, a sign that market structure is improving (HRV model) and acute stressors are relaxing (EWS model). Their respective 10-session moving averages are also trying to flip in the constructive direction.
All of this could change today, but it's encouraging to go into these events with markets in a more stable place than they were just a week or two ago.
$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $RUT $IWM $DJX $DIA $VIX $VVIX $BKX solana:5XqMbyZbtse5UQUzgrYMpeWLWLR6BWFqUm5H3VAWpump $SMH
MACRO OPS retweeted
It’s hard to accept that extremely fearful conditions (evidenced by extremely narrow breadth, highly skewed sector flows, etc.) are of the extremely bullish variety, given big-picture margin activity. 🤔
MACRO OPS retweeted
Let me be clear: this is not a call for a top. It’s a friendly reminder that price leads fundamentals.
Except for Lucent’s January 2000 warning, about two months before the peak, most earnings misses, profit warnings, and bankruptcies occurred well after the March 2000 high.
MACRO OPS retweeted
$MSFT - MICROSOFT OFFERS BUYOUTS TO 60,000 WORKERS AMID AI SPENDING BOOM
Microsoft is offering voluntary buyouts to approximately 60,000 employees as it restructures its workforce and redirects spending toward AI.
Key details:
🔸 60,000 workers eligible across the US, Canada, India, and UK.
🔸 223,000 employees globally as of June.
🔸 Data center teams are among those excluded from the offer.
🔸 Eligible employees will receive severance-style benefits.
The key takeaway: Microsoft is tightening labor costs while protecting critical AI infrastructure investments, highlighting how AI spending is reshaping Big Tech employment.
MACRO OPS retweeted
There lies a question beneath every threshold we seek to cross: a strategy moving from simulation to live markets, a promotion to portfolio manager, the leap from a firm to a fund of our own. “Can I trust this?”
This week’s essay is about the question embedded within that one, and the only place real trust can be found.
In markets: energy followed through. NYMEX Brent broke out of its 7-month head-and-shoulders continuation, January Brent retested its neckline and pushed higher, and December WTI crude put the 2x target of 114.87 in play. January feeder cattle recompleted their head-and-shoulders reversal and sit 70% of the way to target, December hogs retested the lower boundary of their running wedge and printed a new low, and white sugar is back at its 50-day SMA with both targets already met. In equities, integrated oil names are mirroring the energy futures.
Read this week's issue of This Infinite Game here: research.macro-ops.com/p/bef…
MACRO OPS retweeted
Comfort Systems (FIX), a former portfolio holding, is another textbook example of the Dual Trend System doing exactly what it was designed to do: identify strong trends, capture the move, and help manage risk when conditions change.
MACRO OPS retweeted
Every regime change prints a red spade. And a decade of ordinary cards does not teach you to see the trick card.
Only trick cards do.
MACRO OPS retweeted
JEFFERIES DESK:
“.. in the last 10 days, we’ve been net for sale in Tech to the tune of > $1B on 7 of those days.
.. And for reference, here’s our net trading flows over a 20D period, one of the more dramatic net selling periods we’ve seen in Tech in recent years.”
MACRO OPS retweeted
Given the strength in consumer staples today, it seems like a good time to revisit a study from the Chart of the Week series, highlighting instances when the sector posted a 10-day rate of change (ROC) of at least 9% either in the 10 sessions leading up to an S&P 500 record high or in the 10 sessions immediately following one.
