Wrestling Analytics and Data https://nitter.cf/t.co/ggSL9uow2U
Joined April 2025
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We teach our kids to score points and keep scoring points. The magic number used to be 7 to have a good chance at winning, but with the new scoring system you really need to be getting 8-10 to win the majority of your matches.
Unless you're AJ Ferrari bro. And you probably aren't.
This data is based on every D1 match wrestled so far this season.
If you’re looking for OSU invite updates, Weston has you covered.
149 | No. 2 Sergio Vega (#OKState) starts the season in style with a 22-5 tech fall (3:29) over William Christopher (GW), featuring six first-period takedowns.
1-seed Vega moves on to the semifinals.
I spent all day yesterday in Corbin Arena for the Patriot Open. Here are my notes on the new Flo NextGen app:
Positive:
- when internet connection was good, app was very good. Overall I give it a B
- bracket viewing is improved, B
- new notification popups for followed wrestlers is great A+. I heard multiple comments on that during the day.
Negative:
- Need an offline mode. Like most gyms, this large arena has little to no internet on the floor. Still got notification pop ups (huge improvement), but app wouldn’t load in lower internet areas. So then I can’t switch between brackets. Offline mode that lets us switch between brackets showing at least old information from previous internet connection would be better than just failing altogether. This, for instance, would allow us to see boot numbers. I could define an entire offline mode that would be a number of improvements.
- please just turn off the “add a bracket” middle step. Just let us grab any bracket at anytime like every other bracket software ever. Or maybe a single “add all brackets” button I can click once, or a global user setting or something.
- bracket still opens in top left corner where there are no names or matches and we have to scroll around to find the actual bracket. It’s really weird and an easy fix.
Overall the app was acceptable. But performance was night and day between places where the internet was good with 3 bars or more (good), and 2 bars or less (very bad). Notification seemed to work with 1 bar, but not the app.
If Flo could get the app working better under low Internet connection, I’d give it an A.
I'm going to shock the heck out of everybody...I need to eat my words.
Flo NextGen, for what I need it for, is absolutely outstanding.
To @SpeyWrestle, @CraigPokorny, @CPyles8, and everybody else I've complained to about FNG, I am deeply sorry. -CEO #d1wrestle
I've said it before but I'm going to say it again, this website is a game changer for following along UWW/Flo international tournaments. So simple too...
@JustinJBasch
baschamania.com
Super 32 update:
Top 4 seeds performed great, almost all are in the quarterfinals as expected. There was a huge drop-off at 5, and another drop at 9.
The biggest surprise was the overperformance of 7 seeds, but these are small sample sizes and I think that's what we saw there.
I don't know if seeds were done by @MatScouts1 or someone else, but I'd say they look pretty good this year.
So far we have a 16% upset rate at Super32 where at least one wrestler was seeded. But upper weight classes are just getting started.
The upset rate is heavily driven by the 132 lbs bracket, where we saw an incredible 28% upset rate (34/122 matches) this morning.
I’ll update the details more after the afternoon session.
Did he say "matsavants?"
Hey, for the record, I agree. My projection gives OK State a 12% chance of winning, and that will likely go up a bit once a Raney is ranked high at 141.
“This season’s about Oklahoma State… they’re going to content (for a national championship).” -@CPyles8
#FRL presented by @AthletePS
The proejection is 12% based on Flo's rankings, and 13% based on Intermat. This is a backtested method based on a 90% confidence scoring window using 15 years of data. (matsavant.com/leaderboards/x…)
The data says PSU should score 151, with 90% confidence they are between 111 and 188. OK State is projected for 113, with a min/max of 78/149 with 90% confidence.
That's a lot of overlap.
If PSU scores 170+ again, I'm afraid OK State can't compete there yet. But if PSU slips up at all, the Cowboys are there and ready to to pounce.
Here's a chart of takedown share (percent of takedowns scored vs given up) and team points scored at NCAA.
@GodsWrestler133 The rarity of your 2018 run can be seen more clearly here.
Seth, to say you are a unique wrestler is a huge understatement.
Fun fact: Since 2015, you are the only NCAA champion with a negative takedown differential during your run to gold. You finished with with -1.
Carter Starroci came in second in 2024 with +2.
You were down 5-0 in takedowns during regulation to Tariq Wilson, but managed to get to overtime and win. In the 14,000 matches, only twice did a wrestler win when down by 5 takedowns in regulation. The other was Angelo Martinoni (CSU Bakersfield) in the PAC 12 championships.
Then against Micic in the finals, you won the match despite losing takedowns 4-1. In the matches I analyzed, which includes all NCAA championships since 2015, this only happened 9 times. And only 3 times at NCAA's. Lizak did it in 2017, you in 2018, and Jaret Lane in 2019.
What if I told you that you could predict the winner of most NCAA wrestling matches without looking at the score?
I analyzed 14,494 matches from the last 11 NCAA tournaments and all the major conference tournaments, and one stat picked the winner 95.6% of the time.
That's better than Spencer Lee's career winning percentage (89%). Better than Jordan Burroughs's (86.5%).
Here's what I found...
Now for the part I think is the most interesting.
There's an old trope our coaches all told us (and many of us have said ourselves) in March:
"Seeds don't matter."
But they do. And it shows in the chart down below.
The green line is win rate by seed differential at NCAAs. Seeded 17+ spots below your opponents, you'll win 12% of the time. Seeded 17+ spots higher, you're up to 88%.
The bigger the gap, the more the higher seed wins, every step of the way.
But one thing nearly flattens that curve...
Takedown Differential.
The purple line is the same wrestlers, only in matches where they won the takedown battle.
A wrestler seeded 7–10 spots lower wins 30% of the time. But when he outscores his higher seed opponent on takedowns? It shoots up to 93.5%.
Even with a -20 differential (e.g. a #30 vs a #10), your win probability rises from 11% to 79% when you have the takedown differential advantage.
So whether you're looking for an upset, or you're trying to avoid the upset, the solution is the same.
Win the takedown battle.