Presidency Scholar, specializing in elections, White House organization, decisionmaking, American politics.
Joined January 2012
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One difficulty in assessing the VT governors race is that @PhilScott4VT is not, if polls are accurate, going to win with 70% of the vote this time around (if he is going to win at all). So it's a struggle to put this contest in historical context. #Vermont vermontpublic.org/local-news…
Suddenly every other X post in my feed is a testimonial to @PhilScott4VT. Does Janoo's campaign not post on X? #Vermont
BTW, just a top-notch debate performance by the @WCAX team last night - a great set of opening questions and really good followups by @WCAX_Darren and @WCAX_Cat. #Vermont
Here's the @PhilScott4VT closing statement I referenced in the earlier postings.
No surprises on last night's @wcax VT governor's debate, but I thought @PhilScott4VT's closing statement was the most pointed critique of Janoo's economic plan that he has made in debates so far. 1/
Another example was when both candidates were asked about pulling the F-35s based in Burlington. But even here Scott focused more on his reasons for basing the F-35's here and less on pushing Janoo to answer the question (which she largely avoided doing). 3/
To her credit, Janoo has been very effective in not provoking more strident attacks from Scott; in an earlier debate her calling him one of the persons she admires most in the opposing party seemed both genuine and and a political savvy answer. 4/4. #Vermont
I should be clear here in discussing on @WCAX A Stronger Vermont's negative advertising targeting Janoo: by law, the @PhilScott4VT campaign cannot control the content of messaging by an independent expenditure PAC that supports him. wcax.com/2026/10/09/outside-…
I've been saying on multiple media appearances that one sign of a competitive governor's race is if we see independent spending by outside organizations on @PhilScott4VT's behalf. This now happening: the RGA has contributed $400,000 to A Stronger Vermont. 1/#Vermont
At this point, according to filings with the Vermont SoS, the PAC has expended about $160,000 on various media. It will be interesting to see whether the PAC goes negative and attacks Janoo. 3/3
One point I should have made in this article is that Sanders' endorsement of Janoo is also a sign that he thinks this is a competitive race. vermontpublic.org/local-news… #Vermont
@PhilScott4VT television ads asking voters to elect like-minded legislators to help him govern suggests a man who is not worried about his own reelection prospects, despite what some polls indicate. #vtpoli #janoo #VTScott
It's tempting to conclude that this VPR poll showing Scott up 10% over Janoo directly contradicts the UNH poll showing the VT governor's race a dead heat. But in fact they agree on Scott's support - both polls have him at about 43% 1/ vermontpublic.org/local-news…
You will recall that UNH uses a standing, voter-heavy web panel and weights to 2024 election results. The Vermont Public poll uses a mixed-mode sample weighted to Census demographics. So the UNH survey may contain a more "decided" response pool. #VTpoli
Doesn't mean one poll is "better" than the other, but the UNH poll may be sampling more engaged voters. At this point, it is impossible to tell how many of the 16% of likely voters still undecided in the Vermont Public poll will vote, and for whom. #VtPoli