Yup, it's really me, the one and only MVI
Do you really have to ask?
Joined June 2024
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$HROW It's always amazing to me how price moves dictate sentiment when the businesses themselves have done nothing materially different than expected. Consider ETON and HROW recently, both the subjects of my recent SA public articles. In each case I bought lower originally, $5.70 for HROW and $3.50 for ETON, but never mind that, let's just think about YTD 2026.
Nothing has changed about the value of either stock YTD. Everything long term is exactly what it's always been. That's something like $100 for ETON and something like $500 for HROW by the end of the decade, call it 2030. Anyone can easily see this for themselves by looking even the most basic long term metrics over time - revenue growth, EBITDA margin growth - and then asking if the elements are in place for continued growth, as they clearly are. The details are uncertain, as is the timing. But the basic range of value centering around these targets, there has been practically no news at all.
And yet... ETON's price from the lows YTD has doubled and HROW's price from the highs this year has been cut almost in half. Zero change in value, no news that matters to value has been learned, long term targets not changed. Short term prices have moved the relative price of these two stocks by a factor of 4.
In each case, the stocks are simple to understand and easy to model over longer periods. HROW in particular is harder to model quarter by quarter because of the huge seasonality and the issues surrounding regulation and insurance, neither of which apply to ETON. So on a quarterly basis, ETON is easy. But both are very simple over a period of years.
If you are a value investor, something will click about what I just said. Buffett always said value investing is simple, but it isn't easy. And that it doesn't take a lot of IQ - anything over 120 is a waste is what he said, not sure I agree - but the real trick is the right mindset. Someone losing their mind over this short term price movement and letting fanciful stories impact their decisions when the long term trends are as plain as day, that person may have the required 120+ IQ, but clearly lacks the right mindset.
Buffett always said, too, that you can't teach that mindset. It either makes sense to you or it doesn't. I include this commentary here for those who have that mindset, but who are second guessing themselves right now. If that's you, ignore the fearful short termers who let the market tell them what to think, think for yourself instead, and act according to your views. For the rest, I wish you well, good luck!
$HROW if you really want to understand the Founder CEO advantage, you almost have to live it. I know people like this, and they are built different. @EyeFarma
I recently spoke with an employee who wants mentorship to become a CEO. Lots of people see themselves as senior leaders, and many can grow into the CEO role. But senior executives come in different types:
Caretaker CEOs manage and hold the ground that their predecessors took.
Chief Excuses Officers explain a lot (or too much).
Founder CEOs own it: the wins, the losses, the glory and the agony. Founder CEOs embody both the "father" and the "orphan" in JFK's aphorism that "success has many fathers, but defeat is always an orphan."
Founding a company means signing up for years of getting punched in the face. The steely-eyed founder takes them, gets up, and keeps building. Founders know how the sausage is made. Oftentimes things don't go your way. But you have to believe that things can change or evolve and get back on track, and that your vision can be realized.
Over time, the business becomes part of your identity. It's who you are and what you care about. It's in your DNA, especially when you have momentum, and you're on the cusp of building something truly great.
I love being a founder CEO. Other than working for McDonald's (flipping burgers) and Kroger (sacking groceries) when I was 15, nobody has ever given me a paycheck. That's how I was built. And I love it!
I love being a founder CEO.
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Michigan Value Investor retweeted
I recently spoke with an employee who wants mentorship to become a CEO. Lots of people see themselves as senior leaders, and many can grow into the CEO role. But senior executives come in different types:
Caretaker CEOs manage and hold the ground that their predecessors took.
Chief Excuses Officers explain a lot (or too much).
Founder CEOs own it: the wins, the losses, the glory and the agony. Founder CEOs embody both the "father" and the "orphan" in JFK's aphorism that "success has many fathers, but defeat is always an orphan."
Founding a company means signing up for years of getting punched in the face. The steely-eyed founder takes them, gets up, and keeps building. Founders know how the sausage is made. Oftentimes things don't go your way. But you have to believe that things can change or evolve and get back on track, and that your vision can be realized.
Over time, the business becomes part of your identity. It's who you are and what you care about. It's in your DNA, especially when you have momentum, and you're on the cusp of building something truly great.
I love being a founder CEO. Other than working for McDonald's (flipping burgers) and Kroger (sacking groceries) when I was 15, nobody has ever given me a paycheck. That's how I was built. And I love it!
I love being a founder CEO.
Much like $AMZN, this will all seem so obvious in hindsight. Just a matter of time.
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$HROW today's call is what good IR looks like. Cautiously optimistic IR is a solved problem. Next: guide conservatively enough in '27 to enable a raise Q2 and/or Q3. If they do this, it rewrites the narrative forever, price up 5x fast, and then more to come.
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$HROW Excellent chance $50+ by January. Whatever doomer views people had on Vevye from Bloomberg, that's dead. Whatever short term negatives they were hoping for/worried about, that's dead. Q4 revenue up ~50% YOY. '27 up ~50% on '26. Biggest drug launches in '28. No end in sight.
$HROW A Word on Sampling
We are about to see a weird artifact introduced to NRx data in Q3. It has no economic significance whatsoever, but I guarantee it will confuse some people. I won't go into it in detail, but the reintroduction of sampling to replace HROW's free first fill Rx program will suppress the number of reported NRx in Q3. This is because samples are not counted as NRx, while free first fills are counted as NRx. Economically they are virtually identical - samples are slightly better since there's not as much cost involved to HROW - but basically no difference. And yet, for no particular reason other than GAAP gonna GAAP, one is counted and reported as NRx, and the other isn't.
I say this now because some of you are going to see Q3 reported. And HROW might tell us how much NRx goes up. They might say - my baseline model - that TRx is up another 21% in Q3, but that NRx is only up 4% again. What the heck MVI, how come you didn't warn us?????
Yes I get it, accounting is confusing. I am doing the best I can to help you all understand it and not be surprised. Despite this effort, I 100% guarantee that I will be hearing from some people that NRx is a little light again, and should we be concerned.
No. No we should not. With the headwinds of the April business rule hangover and the sampling effect in place, even zero NRx growth works out to something above 20% actual NRx growth. Relax. Take a deep breath.
$HROW HROW's most important drug BY FAR is Melt. They are submitting the NDA this year. I know 2028 is so far in the future that people pretend is doesn't exist, but in 2028, Melt will come down like a hammer. $500M+ revenue in 2027 with no Melt. With Melt $1B+ in '28? '29?
$HROW Vevye revenue up 75% YOY and 35% sequentially. Turns out Bloomberg data was not "directionally right" after all. And by the way, it was "directionally stupid" to think it was ;-) I kid
$HROW is 38% YOY growth considered good? and by the way, Q4 growth is going to BLOW THAT AWAY. Look for 50% YOY growth in Q4 and into 2027.
