🌀TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF — HURRICANE THREAT GROWING Interests from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle need to closely watch this system, with the potential for a strengthening hurricane to come ashore later this week. Computer models are increasingly hinting at a stronger hurricane prior to landfall, and some intensity guidance suggests the potential for rapid strengthening just before reaching the Gulf Coast. ⚠️ Intensity remains the BIGGEST challenge with this forecast. How strong this storm becomes at landfall could ultimately determine the magnitude of impacts farther north. On the current track, the remnants are expected to accelerate north and could impact the Tri-State area Sunday night into Monday, potentially bringing impacts to the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C. → Philadelphia → New York City. A stronger Gulf system could mean a stronger system farther north, so this is one we’ll be watching VERY closely over the next several days. 🌀 See you at 7AM on the PIX 11 Morning News with more @PIX11News

WATCHING THE WESTERN GULF THIS WEEK FOR POTENTIAL PROBLEMS UP HERE LATE WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK? The area that historically gives us the MOST trouble is often storms that develop in the western Gulf. This region can easily become influenced by stronger synoptic features, with northern-slingshotting energy pulling active weather northward. The models likely WON’T show much right now because there’s no defined mid-level circulation for them to latch onto. However, this is an area of low pressure and disturbed weather that I could easily see lifting up along the Appalachians and producing impactful weather late this weekend into early next week. A fleeting high over the Southeast combined with a digging shortwave into Texas would put this system on a potentially ideal trajectory toward our area. 👀 The weather is very quiet at home now so this is what I'll be watching. See you on the PIX 11 Morning News at 7AM @PIX11News

🌊❄️ NOR’EASTERS GONE WILD THIS FALL/WINTER? If you’ve been following my thoughts this summer, you know I’ve been leaning toward ABOVE-NORMAL storm activity along the East Coast, fueled by an amped-up southern jet stream. 💨 A lot of that thinking comes back to El Niño and the latest CanSIPS long-range forecast model has a very El Niño-like look. 🌧️ WHAT’S CATCHING MY EYE? A strong signal for a moisture-rich pattern along the East Coast. That supports the idea of an active storm track with plenty of moisture available for developing coastal storms. ❄️ DOES THAT MEAN BIG SNOW? Not automatically! Moisture is only one piece of the puzzle. You also need cold air in place, a favorable storm track, and the right timing. Get those ingredients to overlap, and the potential for significant snow increases. 🌡️ THE BIG CHALLENGE: A busy southern jet can supply the moisture, but it doesn’t guarantee a steady supply of cold air. A storm tracking closer to the coast could bring rain, while a track farther offshore could favor snow—IF enough cold air is available and that will be determined by the status of the AO/NAO (northern latitude blocking) 🎯 MY TAKE: The potential for an active winter storm pattern has my attention. But forecasting snowfall could be especially difficult because the details that determine rain versus snow often won’t become clear until much closer to each storm. @PIX11News

NOR’EASTERS ON THE RISE… and the continuation of a lackluster hurricane season. But is it really that quiet? 🤔 We’ve already had 8 named storms! Enough already with the “dead hurricane season” talk! Those were two of the big topics on today’s PIX11 Forecast Focus — breaking down what’s happening now and what could be ahead. 🎥 Full episode: Link in bio @PIX11News

NOR’EASTER UPDATE: ONE MORE MAJOR PUSH OF WIND & RAIN TO GO! 🌧️💨 As the storm rotates in, expect another round of powerful winds to push into NYC and areas south and east. I also expect another surge of strong winds into the suburbs before conditions finally begin to calm down. 🌊 MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING remains a serious concern tonight as we approach high tide, building on the water already piled up from this morning’s cycle. Tides will continue to run impressively high into Sunday morning, especially from Barnegat Bay northward along the Jersey Shore and across coastal areas into southern Suffolk County. @PIX11News

WATCH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ENTER THE PICTURE… 🌀 Evening update on the Nor’easter: The forecast remains largely on track as upper-level energy begins interacting with the storm. Coastal impacts remain the BIG story: moderate to pockets of MAJOR coastal flooding, 50–60+ mph wind gusts along exposed shorelines, significant beach erosion, and dangerous surf. Long Island and the Jersey Shore remain most vulnerable. Now we watch how the system responds and intensifies overnight. I’ll see you on TV at 8AM on @PIX11News and streaming LIVE from 9AM–1PM on the PIX11 website with the latest storm track and impacts.

⚠️ STORM READY TO EXPLODE AS JET STREAM ENERGY INFUSES INTO THE SYSTEM... This is a very compelling picture this morning on water vapor. A powerful jet streak is entering the picture as the upper-level low and surface low begin to interact. The storm is primed to POP. As the system becomes vertically stacked (500mb, 200mb, and 1000mb lows align) we should begin to see pressures rapidly fall along the coast over the next several hours. The going forecast remains on track, with a strong signal that the storm will make that important WESTWARD BEND. ON TV NOW with my latest storm track and impacts on @PIX11News.

EVENING NOR’EASTER UPDATE 🌊💨 Small changes remain possible, including a slight correction west. I’m still leaning heavily on the ensembles for subtle trends, and unfortunately, there’s still some room for this storm to nudge closer to the coast. If that happens, coastal impacts would become more significant, with stronger winds potentially reaching farther inland. The overall forecast remains largely unchanged, but we’re watching every wobble closely. See you at 7AM on @PIX11News for the latest.

NOR’EASTER AFTERNOON UPDATE… 🌊💨 Still maintaining the going forecast with few changes. One concern we need to start talking more about: the trees are still fully leafed out. With soaking rain adding weight to the trees, combined with a prolonged period of strong winds and potentially higher gusts, I’m increasingly concerned about widespread downed trees and a significant number of power outages this weekend. This could become one of the more impactful parts of the storm, especially if the stronger wind projections verify. More updates coming on @PIX11News Morning news tomorrow at 7-10am

Here we go!! @PIX11News

🌊 COASTAL STORM TO CRANK UP BY FRIDAY — MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING & BIG WINDS... We’re entering Day 2 of a strong, persistent push of Atlantic water toward the NJ coastline. Water is already piling up, and with each tide cycle unable to fully drain, Friday morning’s high tide becomes increasingly concerning for pockets of MAJOR coastal flooding. 💨 THE WIND FIELD WILL BE IMPRESSIVE. As the storm expands, the wind field will strengthen and spread inland, bringing gusty winds well away from the immediate coast and potentially into the Hudson Valley. The forecast remains largely LOCKED IN, with only minor changes. The global models are finally shifting a little farther west, moving closer to the ensemble guidance that has favored a western solution from the start. 👇 Below is one of the best illustrations of the wind potential, with peak gusts approaching 60 MPH across Long Island, especially along south-facing shorelines. I’ll break down the latest timing and impacts from 7–10 AM on @PIX11News.

OUR COASTAL STORM IN ITS EARLY STAGES OF FORMATION… here is my latest TV forecast. Important forecast model runs later today! @PIX11News

🌧️ NEW YORK CITY NOR’EASTER CHATTER Here are my latest thoughts on the weekend coastal storm. My confidence in the overall setup is much higher tonight after seeing the latest model runs. There are still important details to work out, but the signal for a significant coastal storm continues to strengthen. I’ll break down what’s changed, the latest track possibilities, and potential impacts tomorrow morning. 📺 See you on the PIX11 Morning News from 7–10 AM. @PIX11News