Milly

Just dropped a +1100 in my Polymarket squad Free to join, no deposit required polymarket.us/squad/join/qWi…

LeBron James o12.5 RA (DK -122) Drop a ❤️ if you're tailing! This doesn't really make a ton of sense to me. Bron went over the first two games in softer matchups when PHI was at full strength, and then had a down game vs. a really tough DET too. His lines closed 13.5, 14.5, 14.5 but I don't think one down game in a tough spot warrants a 2 point dip here. If anything, I think the 14-16 RA range for him is the norm and in those first two games, he had 24 and 22 pRA. In games LeBron has 18-26 pRA, he's over this line in 48/68 (70.6%) over the last two seasons - AVG 13.8 RA. If you exclude T10 defensive teams, he's over in 30/39 (76.9%) - AVG 14.2 RA. There was some talk in the offseason surrounding the Pacers changing up some defensive schemes/coverages, where they want to jump in the gaps a little more and really try to limit drives to the rim. That directly affects LeBron in half court sets from a scoring standpoint, which should help those pAST chances. Compared to last season, Indiana is allowing a +3.2% C&S FREQ increase, so some of that talk is coming to fruition. LeBron should also match up with some lower usage on the defensive end, which should help with some REB chances. Huff starting gives the Pacers a PnP center that can drag Embiid out of the paint + JB will check Siakam the 1A/1B in this team w/ Hali. This should also be a faster paced game, which will naturally create more chances for stats in general. Bron saw a +2.1 pRA increase in games vs. T15 pace teams last season (majority of those w/ Luka) --> a +2.1 pRA increase likely puts him in the 25-26 pRA range, which is great volume for a 12.5 line.

HUGE NBA slate! 🏀 Just dropped a play in my Polymarket squads Feels pretty mispriced given the injury report / matchup 100% free to join ⬇️ polymarket.us/squad/join/qWi…

One week until NBA is finally back! 🏀 25/26: +43.56U (7.46% ROI) 24/25: +117.59U (21.60% ROI) 23/24: +115.33U (17.45% ROI) Every single play is posted and tracked in @ProfessorsLabHQ with in-depth analysis

Aaron Rodgers o33.5 Pass Attempts (DK -113) Drop a ❤️ if you're tailing! His line has been closing at 35.5, 34.5, 34.5 over the last few weeks and drops after one "bad" game vs. the Colts. A large reason he ended with just 31 attempts is because of Jaylen Warring ripping of huge chunk plays for 60, 80 yards, which inherently kill any over attempts prop. The Bucs rank #26 in EXP% (explosive play rate allowed), which should help limit those bigger chunk plays + there's going to be some wind gusts at times during the game that can limit any deep shots down field. Another huge angle here is the coach speak from Mike McCarthy. After last game vs. the Colts, "We had the ball really 54 official plays. So we’d like to get up in the high 60s and 70s and create more opportunities for all our perimeter players.” If he does want to generate more plays, the Steelers offensive pace is going to have to increase and that should lead to more shotgun, hurry up looks and just quicker passes in general. The Bucs have also been a pass-funnel to start the season --> allowing the 4th highest PROE. As a result, 3/5 QBs have gone over their attempts line. Todd Bowles also blitzes at a top-4 rate in the league has done so for years --> out of 29 QBs w/ 100+ drop backs, Rodgers ranks #24 in YPA vs. the blitz. Rodgers also averages the 2nd lowest scrambles per game and scramble rate, so if he does find himself under pressure / out of the pocket, there's a higher chance he just throws it away vs. using his legs.

Pat Surtain and Hufanga are going to be out for Thursday night, which causes Denver to adjust their coverage schemes. Week 5 they were without both and we saw the change: Weeks 1-4: 64.6% zone / 47.5% 2-high Week 5: 71.9% zone / 65.5% 2-high

J.K. Dobbins o49.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel -114) Drop a ❤️ if you're tailing! 📊: 2025 w/ Sean Payton as play-caller Dobbins hasn't covered this line yet this year but does have 49 yards in a game and his line has closed at 58.5, 50.5, 60.5 over the last three weeks. Sean Payton is taking over play-calling duties for Denver and said, "we know we have to improve our balance in running the football." This is fresh off a game they lost where Bo threw the ball 42 times. I do think we see a much more balanced approach against a Chargers team who allow the 4th most RB ATT/G and 3rd lowest PROE. Dobbins AVG 77.2 YDS per game in 2025 w/ Payton calling plays and went over this line in 9/10 games. Dobbins is the 1st-2nd down back for Denver and averages 63.8% of the carries for this RB-room. Since Coleman went to IR, Dobbins has 28/40 carries for this RB-room, which comes out to 70% of the carries. If he continues to see that 65%-70% split, he should record ~17 ATT. 6/8 w/ 12-17 ATT since joining DEN and 49+ yards in 7/8 - AVG 72.8 YDS. J.K. ranks #9 among 39 RBs w/ 30+ ATT this season in man/gap ATT% - also ranked #9 overall in 2025 in man/gap concept ATT%. LAC allow the 13th highest EPA/A vs. man/gap runs (top-7 run defense vs. zone concept runs). They also allow #7 highest YPC, #4 RYOE, #4 in YBC/ATT vs. man/gap concept runs. RBs vs. LAC: - Emmanuel Wilson: 21 ATT for 81 yards - James Cook: 24 ATT for 154 yards - Ashton Jeanty: 21 ATT for 48 yards - Jeremiyah Love: 11 ATT for 41 yards (Allgeier 17 ATT for 61 yards) Cook and Love/Allgeier also average a 50%+ man/gap ATT% and ran for 154 (Cook) and 102 (Love/Allgeier) vs. this LAC team.

⭐️ CeeDee Lamb o5.5 Receptions (FD -130) Drop a ❤️ if you’re tailing! Games of 5, 8, 7 REC this season w/ the miss being that SNF game vs. the Giants where they had two total 2nd half possessions. 8, 9, 8 TRG in those three games. Overall, 9/15 w/ Dak/Pickens since 2025 - AVG 6.2 REC on 9.5 TRG. 5+ REC in 14/15, so there’s a great floor here. HOU are allowing the 7th most TRG/G to WR and have allowed every WR1/WR2 to cover their receptions prop this season: Moore 5, Shakir 4, Chase 7, Tee 5, Downs 5, Keenan 6. Lamb has solid TPRR #s vs. all of Houstons coverages (and so does Pickens). However, HOU ranks #5 in Pressure% - Lamb see’s a +3% 1Read% when Dak is under pressure (28.5% to 31.5%) vs. Pickens who see’s a -8.4% decrease (27.0% to 18.6%). CeeDee vs. teams T10 in Pressure% w/ Dak/Pickens: - MIN: 6 REC / 10 TRG - DEN : 7 REC / 10 TRG - PHI: 7 REC / 13 TRG - PHI: 4 REC / 11 TRG - KC: 7 REC / 9 TRG Over 4/5 above and hit/exceeded his TRG/G average in every game - AVG 6.2 REC / 10.6 TRG (+1.1). 11/17 in games w/ 8-13 TRG w/ Dak and 8/12 w/ 9-13 TRG. Dallas also rank #1 in PROE and get a dome game in what’s projected to be a competitive game (2.5 point spread).