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Gold at $4,000 is roughly 15% of the “shadow” gold price, which is the price gold would need to reach to fully back current currency in circulation and bank reserves.
That ratio is well below the historical average. And historically those two numbers have moved toward each other.
Taylor McKenna, an analyst at Kopernik Global Investors, joins The Gold Exchange to walk through the shadow gold price framework, how they use an incentive price to know when to buy and sell commodities, and why platinum trading at 40% of the gold price may be one of the more interesting setups in precious metals right now.
Watch here: youtube.com/watch?v=4VUrEvI6…
Most investors see volatility and run. Taylor McKenna sees it and buys.
To him, volatility is not risk. It is opportunity. When a position drops and his view has not changed, he buys more.
Watch how he played gold miners. A couple years ago they were 23 percent of the whole portfolio.
As they ran up, he cut that to 3 percent. When they got cheap again this year, he piled back in.
Same asset, same conviction. He just let the price swings do the work.
The catch is you have to be patient. He bought uranium back in 2013 and waited years, and some of those names ran 5 to 10 times.
Volatility only scares you if you need the money tomorrow.
Full breakdown in the video.
Gold just hit 4,000 and people think they missed it. Taylor McKenna says the math says the opposite.
He joins the Gold Exchange podcast with a metric most investors never see. His firm tracks the shadow gold price, the level gold would need to fully back the dollar again.
That number sits around 25,000. So gold at 4,000 is trading at just 15 percent of it.
He is not calling for 25,000. He is saying that gap always closes, and right now it is extreme.
Discover how to earn a yield on your gold, paid in gold: goldyield.monetary-metals.co…
Everyone wants to know when to buy a commodity. Taylor McKenna uses one number to decide.
It is called the incentive price, the price a metal has to reach to make companies actually build new mines.
Below that price, nobody builds. Which means supply is about to tighten. That is when he buys.
The proof is uranium. Ten years ago it sat around 30 dollars while the incentive price was 75. He bought. The returns were enormous.
Gold did the same thing. Before 2020 it was trading below its own incentive price, and almost nobody noticed.
Find the number that forces new supply, then buy while the market is still ignoring it.
Full breakdown in the video.
Gold just hit 4,000 and people think they missed it. Taylor McKenna says the math says the opposite.
He joins the Gold Exchange podcast with a metric most investors never see. His firm tracks the shadow gold price, the level gold would need to fully back the dollar again.
That number sits around 25,000. So gold at 4,000 is trading at just 15 percent of it.
He is not calling for 25,000. He is saying that gap always closes, and right now it is extreme.
Discover how to earn a yield on your gold, paid in gold: goldyield.monetary-metals.co…
Most funds want to get as big as possible. Taylor McKenna runs his the opposite way.
He joins the Gold Exchange podcast to explain the edge. His firm manages 11 billion and plans to cap it around 15 to 17.
Not because they cannot raise more. Because size is the enemy of opportunity.
The bigger a fund gets, the fewer places it can actually move. Staying small and nimble keeps their options open all over the globe.
That is what they call their real advantage. Not picking better, staying free to pick at all.
Full breakdown in the video.
Gold just hit 4,000 and people think they missed it. Taylor McKenna says the math says the opposite.
He joins the Gold Exchange podcast with a metric most investors never see. His firm tracks the shadow gold price, the level gold would need to fully back the dollar again.
That number sits around 25,000. So gold at 4,000 is trading at just 15 percent of it.
He is not calling for 25,000. He is saying that gap always closes, and right now it is extreme.
Discover how to earn a yield on your gold, paid in gold: goldyield.monetary-metals.co…
Gold just hit 4,000 and people think they missed it. Taylor McKenna says the math says the opposite.
He joins the Gold Exchange podcast with a metric most investors never see. His firm tracks the shadow gold price, the level gold would need to fully back the dollar again.
That number sits around 25,000. So gold at 4,000 is trading at just 15 percent of it.
He is not calling for 25,000. He is saying that gap always closes, and right now it is extreme.
Discover how to earn a yield on your gold, paid in gold: goldyield.monetary-metals.co…
Gold at 4,000 dollars an ounce sounds expensive. Taylor McKenna, analyst at Kopernik Global Investors, has a framework that puts that number in a different context.
Kopernik uses what they call a “shadow” gold price, which is the price gold would need to reach to fully back current currency in circulation and bank reserves. You take M0, which is currency in circulation plus bank reserves, and divide it by the country’s gold holdings. The resulting number is the clearing price for a 100% backed currency.
That number today is approximately $25,000 per ounce. Gold at $4,000 is roughly 15% of that figure. That ratio is well below the historical average between market price and the “shadow price”. And historically, those two numbers have moved toward each other over time.
Kopernik is not predicting gold goes to $25,000. But they do incorporate a scenario where the market, as it did in the 1970s without any government intervention, takes gold back toward a partial backing price. A 25% backed scenario, consistent with the Bretton Woods framework, implies a price just above $6,000 an ounce.
Taylor joined The Gold Exchange to work through that framework, how it interacts with the traditional incentive price analysis, and what it means for investors thinking about gold allocation today.
Watch here: youtube.com/watch?v=4VUrEvI6…
The whole market is piling into AI like all of it will win.
Dana Samuelson disagrees. There are five or six major AI models right now, and they are not all going to make it.
It is VHS versus Beta. Albums versus CDs. A few win big, and a couple fail completely.
He is watching Oracle. A great software company that took on enormous debt to go all in on AI. If it is not one of the winners, it is a huge loser.
And that debt is the real danger. When these companies miss, the losses ripple straight into the public markets.
There is not enough room for everyone to eat at the AI pie.
Full breakdown in the video.
Gold keeps running and most Americans cannot figure out why. @DanaSamuelson99 says the rest of the world already knows.
He joins the Gold Exchange podcast with the answer.
The world went on a gold buying spree. Americans sold into the rally, confused about why it was happening.
The reason is trust.
The world no longer trusts the dollar, especially once a country learned its dollars can be turned into hostages.
Sitting on top of the reserve currency, Americans are the last to notice.
When gold took off last year, Americans did the exact wrong thing. Dana Samuelson says they sold the rally instead of buying.
They saw the price jump and cashed out for stocks. They never understood why gold was running.
The rest of the world did. It was rising on a real loss of trust in the US.
So the world bought while Americans sold.
Sitting on the reserve currency, they never had to think like everyone else.
Full breakdown in the video.
Gold keeps running and most Americans cannot figure out why. @DanaSamuelson99 says the rest of the world already knows.
He joins the Gold Exchange podcast with the answer.
The world went on a gold buying spree. Americans sold into the rally, confused about why it was happening.
The reason is trust.
The world no longer trusts the dollar, especially once a country learned its dollars can be turned into hostages.
Sitting on top of the reserve currency, Americans are the last to notice.
China keeps buying gold no matter the price. Dana Samuelson explains why price does not matter to them.
He joins the Gold Exchange podcast with the number. China holds about 4 percent of its reserves in gold. Other countries hold 15 to 18.
They are not chasing a price. They are filling a gap.
And it is not to back the yuan. It is a hedge against other currencies failing.
The sharper reason everyone is buying now. Hold dollars outside the US and cross it, and they can become hostages.
Full breakdown in the video.
Gold keeps running and most Americans cannot figure out why. @DanaSamuelson99 says the rest of the world already knows.
He joins the Gold Exchange podcast with the answer.
The world went on a gold buying spree. Americans sold into the rally, confused about why it was happening.
The reason is trust.
The world no longer trusts the dollar, especially once a country learned its dollars can be turned into hostages.
Sitting on top of the reserve currency, Americans are the last to notice.
Discover how to earn a yield on your gold, paid in gold: goldyield.monetary-metals.co…
The yen just flashed a warning most US investors ignore. Dana Samuelson says it is a big deal.
For over a decade the trade was easy. Borrow yen cheap, reinvest it at higher rates, pocket the spread.
But that only works while the yen stays stable. Once it starts skidding, the spread vanishes and the trade unwinds.
And this one has been building for years. Unwind it too fast and it ripples out, which is why they stepped in.
He puts it simply. It is like pulling yarn on a sweater. Keep pulling and soon you have no sweater.
That is the kind of signal that sends people back to gold.
Full breakdown in the video.
Gold keeps running and most Americans cannot figure out why. @DanaSamuelson99 says the rest of the world already knows.
He joins the Gold Exchange podcast with the answer.
The world went on a gold buying spree. Americans sold into the rally, confused about why it was happening.
The reason is trust.
The world no longer trusts the dollar, especially once a country learned its dollars can be turned into hostages.
Sitting on top of the reserve currency, Americans are the last to notice.
Discover how to earn a yield on your gold, paid in gold: goldyield.monetary-metals.co…
Gold just pulled back, and a lot of people got nervous. Dana Samuelson thinks the bottom is already in.
First, perspective. This is gold digesting the biggest run in its history, and that always takes time.
It held where it mattered. Support near 3,950 on gold and 55 on silver, both held.
Then came the real tell. The US and Japan jumped in together to prop up the yen, something that almost never happens.
That kind of coordinated move signals real distress in the currency markets. And the moment it happened, gold and silver caught a bid and climbed.
That is why he is now confident the bottom is in. The catalyst already showed up.
Full breakdown in the video.
Gold keeps running and most Americans cannot figure out why. @DanaSamuelson99 says the rest of the world already knows.
He joins the Gold Exchange podcast with the answer.
The world went on a gold buying spree. Americans sold into the rally, confused about why it was happening.
The reason is trust.
The world no longer trusts the dollar, especially once a country learned its dollars can be turned into hostages.
Sitting on top of the reserve currency, Americans are the last to notice.
Discover how to earn a yield on your gold, paid in gold: goldyield.monetary-metals.co…
Gold keeps running and most Americans cannot figure out why. @DanaSamuelson99 says the rest of the world already knows.
He joins the Gold Exchange podcast with the answer.
The world went on a gold buying spree. Americans sold into the rally, confused about why it was happening.
The reason is trust.
The world no longer trusts the dollar, especially once a country learned its dollars can be turned into hostages.
Sitting on top of the reserve currency, Americans are the last to notice.
Discover how to earn a yield on your gold, paid in gold: goldyield.monetary-metals.co…