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In Iowa:
Steady Lines Despite Rain: A continuous stream of voters is lining up in Ankeny near Des Moines despite intermittent heavy rain throughout the day.
High Turnout Expectations: A local precinct captain reported active turnout, and Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate expressed confidence to reporters that statewide participation will surpass 2022 midterm levels (official turnout figures are verified after polls close through the Iowa Secretary of State's office).
Push for Bipartisanship: Voters from both major parties told the reporter they are prioritizing bipartisanship—including registered Republican Michelle Tilton, who said she voted for Democrats to see a change.
Election-Day Reliance: Since Republican voters traditionally favor voting in person on Election Day rather than early, GOP strategists have been closely watching whether lower voter enthusiasm would depress today's turnout.
House Conceded by Sources: According to the speaker's sources, expectations of Republicans holding the House are "long gone" (per AP News, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to flip the chamber).
Senate Survival Play: Instead, the hope among those sources is that strong same-day Republican turnout will keep the party competitive in crucial Senate battlegrounds (where AP News notes Democrats need to flip four seats to win the majority).
Last-Minute Mobilization: Rather than hosting a traditional celebration at Hakeem Jeffries' D.C. headquarters, roughly 50 Democratic volunteers are running a phone bank to push swing-district voters to the polls.
Early Bellwethers: Per AP News, the first polls close at 6:00 p.m. ET in Indiana and Kentucky, where both parties are watching early returns in Republican-leaning districts—as well as South Carolina, Florida, and Virginia—to gauge the overall trajectory of the night.
Key Races on the Radar: Democrats are watching whether they can overperform or flip seats in districts Trump previously won by double digits, specifically former Rep. Andy Barr's open Kentucky seat and Rep. Victoria Spartz's district in Indiana.
Democratic Lawyer Marc Elias Receives Target Letter in Alaska Ballot Inquiry, Outlets Report ift.tt/qVeAaGP
Broken Economic Promises: Trump ran on lowering prices, yet 82% of voters say they are worse off (44%) or no better off (38%) than two years ago.
Republican Turnout Question: noted Marjorie Taylor Greene's question of why GOP voters would feel motivated to show up if the economy hasn't improved.
2018 vs. Today: While Trump's overall poll approval is similar to 2018 (~39%), he has lost the majority support on the economy he held during his first-term midterms.
Preliminary Caveat: Fewer economically dissatisfied Americans may have actually turned out to vote than seen in broader public polls, and numbers remain early as voting continues.
Midterm Exit Poll Recap:
Trump Approval: 38% nationwide, down 7 points from the 2018 midterms.
Top Issues: Economy leads (39%), followed closely by U.S. democracy (32%).
Personal Finances: 44% feel worse off than 2 years ago; only 18% feel better off.
Voter Mood: 75% are dissatisfied (37%) or angry (38%) about the direction of the country.
Gas Averages $4.15 on Election Day, a Midterm Record in Dollar Terms ift.tt/KAUb3lW
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