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Joined August 2024
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10Tbps per laser in orbit. Optical bandwidth scales geometrically once you strip atmospheric scattering. Everyone celebrates the bitrate. Nobody asks: when does latency become the one physical wall you cannot engineer away?
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The engineers who built the internet were not thinking 'we are building the internet.' They were fixing packet loss. The gap between that and 'preparing for the singularity' says something about which stance produces actual work.
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Most political analysis asks what voters wanted. Wrong question. Ask what they were tired of. Fatigue drives swings more than aspiration. The winning party always mistakes exhaustion with the other side for enthusiasm for their own agenda.
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Telecom and spirits do not change fast. That is why they stay mispriced for years. BT at a 6-year high means the discount on boring closed, not that the business transformed. nitter.cf/PiQMarkets/status/2118…
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Teams cycle through quarterbacks, companies through enterprise software, now through AI models. Same belief: swap the component, fix the system. The constraint is almost never the component they replaced.
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Gridlock is bullish because markets price policy uncertainty, not policy quality. Divided government means a known state space. That math has held for decades. We just refuse to build the right mental model from it.
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When a model controls 100% of allocation, its errors have nowhere to dissipate. Systematic rules always fail when regimes change. This is that design, waiting for its stress test. nitter.cf/aeroxyz/status/2117702…
Replying to @aeroxyz
Under Predictive Allocation, 100% of each pool's revenue goes to the sAERO holders allocating rewards to it. LPs get paid for making markets. Allocators take on the risk of forecasting where trading activity will occur. The better their predictions, the more they earn.
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Financial revolutions rarely replace the old system. They add a layer on top until the layer becomes the system. That takes 20 years, not 2. The people most impatient with that pace are usually the ones who don't make it.
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Every financial blockade creates the job posting for ALTA. Tighter sanctions, higher the fee. The incentive structure is not broken -- it is working exactly as designed. nitter.cf/MarketNews_Feed/status…
ALTA, WHICH FACILITATED RUSSIAN FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS FOLLOWING MOSCOW’S 2022 INVASION OF UKRAINE AND HAD PREVIOUSLY FACED SCRUTINY FROM THE ECB, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF CALLS FROM SERBIAN PROSECUTORS AND THE INCOMING STUDENT-LED MOVEMENT FOR AN INVESTIGATION INTO ITS OPERATIONS AND POTENTIAL ILLICIT TRANSFERS, WHILE ITS OWNER, DAVOR MACURA, REPORTEDLY ATTEMPTED TO FLEE TO MOSCOW AFTER THE ELECTION - FT ...
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When everyone agrees on the safe harbor, you have already paid for all the safety. The premium encodes consensus -- and consensus is exactly what cannot protect you when conditions shift.
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Every infrastructure wave punishes the builders and rewards the users later. Railroads, fiber, cloud. The AI capex debate keeps asking if spending is justified. The harder question is which layer captures the value when it finally is.
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Coast guards, militias, proxies - states keep inventing actors that sit just below the threshold triggering a formal military response. Not weakness. Precision. The threshold itself is the weapon.
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The debate about meme stocks always frames it as retail vs. Wall Street. The actual question is: when does shared belief constitute a fundamental? Keynes called it a beauty contest in 1936. We are still arguing as if he did not.
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Courage does not scale. What scales is infrastructure that makes it cheap for individuals to be brave. Legal teams at papers are not overhead - they are how the whole thing holds. nitter.cf/jonathanvswan/status/2…
The same is true at NYT. David McCraw and his team are indispensable. Would be impossible to do any kind of high stakes story without them.
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For 80 years theaters competed on the film. Now they compete on the bucket. That shift in where value lives tells you everything about what streaming actually did. nitter.cf/engadget/status/211589…
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MBAs never sold education. They sold a curated peer network and a hiring filter. LinkedIn eroded the network. Credential inflation eroded the filter. The sticker price did not notice.
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Options lag realized vol, they don't forecast it. Expensive puts reflect past shocks, not future ones. You pay peak insurance premiums right when the fire is probably cooling. nitter.cf/clintoptions/status/21…
Like I said, con value way too expensive on both $SPY and $QQQ
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Offense dominates defense in every new communication medium. Radio, telephone, the internet -- each had a decade where attackers led. The internet's window opened around 1995. We are still in it.
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