Research analyst for bond investors. Munis, Agency MBS, Macro & Rates.
San Francisco Bay Area
Joined September 2026
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We're live!
Today, I'm excited to bring @OasiveAI out of stealth and announce that we're backed by @ycombinator!
Oasive helps bond investors find better bonds to buy.
Uncover opportunities you might otherwise miss, compare investments and test the risks before putting on a trade.
Which Treasury maturities look cheap? Is there a curve trade worth putting on? Macro and Rates Research helps you explore both. In mortgage-backed securities (MBS), compare pools and see how changes in rates and prepayments affect your portfolio.
Our AI analysts bring the research and proprietary models together, so you can go from idea to decision in minutes.
Thank you to @kul and @garrytan for taking a chance on me and believing in @OasiveAI!
Start your Macro and Rates Research free trial or request an MBS demo: oasive.ai/join
Here's what you can do 👇
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
The Fed held on Wednesday but a December hike is still up for debate (though highly likely!)
Musalem (St Louis Fed President) said today that policy is still accommodative and "additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary and soon".
2 days ago, Cook and Hammack dissented and called for an immediate hike. With core PCE at 3.1% (well above the Fed 2% target), the case for December keeps getting louder.
I'm still calling for a December hike (and so is the market pricing it at 72%) unless unless October jobs and CPI come in soft.
stlouisfed.org/from-the-pres…
Check out all the outstanding debt in a map view!
Something I like to do on the new @OasiveAI muni platform: click around the Bay Area and see who owes what!
Zoom in anywhere on the map and see the outstanding debt for the cities, schools, hospitals and transit agencies around you.
It's honestly kind of fun. Where should I look next?
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Something I like to do on the new @OasiveAI muni platform: click around the Bay Area and see who owes what!
Zoom in anywhere on the map and see the outstanding debt for the cities, schools, hospitals and transit agencies around you.
It's honestly kind of fun. Where should I look next?
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Teasury auctions were solid in the belly this week but the buyer mix shifted at the front end.
> 7y: dealers took just 9.4%, a 7-auction low
> 2y: indirects fell to 45.7%, the lowest since at least March. Directs jumped to 41.3%
Supply cleared fine but the 2y buyer base is more concentrated. definitely worth keeping an eye on
Check out our weekly auction recap on @OasiveAI
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Renters are finally getting some relief but buyers aren't yet.
The rental vacancy rate rose to 7.6% in Q3, up 0.5pp from a year ago. The homeowner vacancy rate is still just 1.2%.
There's more supply for renters and very little for people trying to buy. That fits with builder sentiment at its lowest since 2012.
Chart from @OasiveAI
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Q3 GDP update from our @OasiveAI report
> GDP grew 3.4%, a small beat on the 3.2% consensus
> Consumer spending + Business Investment grew 4.9%, the fastest since 2021!
Most of the rest cancels out. Imported goods went straight into inventories so trade and inventories offset each other. The real increase came from business investment, led by computers and AI equipment.
To me, this report makes a December hike very much alive!
Bonds did rally today but that was Alphabet dropping more than 10%, not the data
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
September PCE is out! Prices came in right on consensus but consumers are getting squeezed.
> Headline: +0.5% m/m and 3.6% y/y, driven by energy
> Core: +0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, the highest since May > Real spending: flat
> Real disposable income: -0.3%
> Saving rate: 3.8%, down from 4.0% in August
Core is still more than a point above the Fed's 2% target and it's firming again. That keeps a December hike on the table. Hike odds from @OasiveAI's model are at 85%.
The risk is the consumer. People are spending more but buying less and dipping into savings to do it.
Full breakdown at @OasiveAI. DM me for a copy!
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
The Fed held today but both dissenters wanted a hike!
Cook and Hammack preferred another 25bp. Growth went from “solid” to “strong.” Inflation still “remains elevated”
My read: the Fed is keeping another hike very much in play. The new data-dependent language leaves December open.
Our FOMC update at @OasiveAI is out. DM me for a copy!
Oasive for Munis!
I'm launching something new: @OasiveAI for muni bonds!
Cities, schools, hospitals and airports borrow $4.5T through muni bonds. But the data that tells you whether they'll pay it back is a mess: PDFs on thousands of local websites, hours of board meeting video, small-town news.
@OasiveAI turns that unstructured mess into one clean page per borrower, so analysts can see the credit risk without the digging. Every number links back to its source.
Would love feedback as we build!
Know a muni credit analyst? I'd love an intro
Building with local government data? DMs open
More in comments 👇
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
I'm launching something new: @OasiveAI for muni bonds!
Cities, schools, hospitals and airports borrow $4.5T through muni bonds. But the data that tells you whether they'll pay it back is a mess: PDFs on thousands of local websites, hours of board meeting video, small-town news.
@OasiveAI turns that unstructured mess into one clean page per borrower, so analysts can see the credit risk without the digging. Every number links back to its source.
Would love feedback as we build!
Know a muni credit analyst? I'd love an intro
Building with local government data? DMs open
More in comments 👇
Easy s-curve building on Oasive!
An S-curve shows how fast mortgages prepay as refinancing gets more attractive. It's one of the most useful charts in MBS.
On @OasiveAI you can build one in seconds and slice it by LTV, FICO, seller, servicer, affordable programs or investor loans, at the loan or pool level. No spreadsheet wrangling.
Quick demo 👇
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
An S-curve shows how fast mortgages prepay as refinancing gets more attractive. It's one of the most useful charts in MBS.
On @OasiveAI you can build one in seconds and slice it by LTV, FICO, seller, servicer, affordable programs or investor loans, at the loan or pool level. No spreadsheet wrangling.
Quick demo 👇
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Thursday's core PCE could be the highest monthly reading since January!
Consensus is +0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y. But after CPI and PPI came in hot, most bank estimates moved up to around 0.34%.
The swing factor is airfares. They rose about 5% in September's PPI after falling in August.
I asked @OasiveAI and it expects core between 0.33% and 0.35%. That's a tough print for a Fed already leaning toward a December hike!
Out Thursday at 8:30am ET
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Markets are pricing more tightening next year than any Fed official projected in September.
End-2027 pricing is around 4.57%, against a 4.1% median Fed projection and a 4.4% high.
It will be interesting to see if tomorrow's press conference challenges this view.
From our FOMC preview at @OasiveAI
New rates research features on Oasive!
Our rates research on @OasiveAI just got a big upgrade!
You can now ask about any Treasury, with daily prices going back to 2008.
What's new:
> Daily prices for every Treasury since 2008
> The daily curve and market state
> Rich/cheap for every bond
> The on-the-run premium, or how much extra the newest issue costs
> What moved the curve, split into level, slope and curvature
> Liquidity as context
In the demo, I ask: "Is the 10yr on the run cheap?"
It is! The newest 10-year note (Aug 2036, 4.625%) yields 5.7bp more than older 10-year bonds, below its usual 2y range. That's typical as it nears the end of its run since a new 10-year comes at the November refunding.
Glad to give you access if you'd like to try it!
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Our rates research on @OasiveAI just got a big upgrade!
You can now ask about any Treasury, with daily prices going back to 2008.
What's new:
> Daily prices for every Treasury since 2008
> The daily curve and market state
> Rich/cheap for every bond
> The on-the-run premium, or how much extra the newest issue costs
> What moved the curve, split into level, slope and curvature
> Liquidity as context
In the demo, I ask: "Is the 10yr on the run cheap?"
It is! The newest 10-year note (Aug 2036, 4.625%) yields 5.7bp more than older 10-year bonds, below its usual 2y range. That's typical as it nears the end of its run since a new 10-year comes at the November refunding.
Glad to give you access if you'd like to try it!
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Home builders are the gloomiest they've been since 2012 but somehow homebuilder stocks jumped 4.8% last week!
Builder sentiment fell to 29 in October and 43% of builders are cutting prices. Housing starts dropped to 1.22M, the lowest since May.
The stocks rallied on lower rates with the 10y down 11bp on the week. I wouldn't expect this to continue given the economic backdrop.
Chart from @OasiveAI
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Treasuries rallied last week but credit spreads went the other way.
IG spreads widened 6bp to 91bp, 3x a typical week. HY widened 7bp to 338bp and is 58bp wider over the month.
The driver is AI borrowing: hyperscalers, data centers and neoclouds have raised $346B in IG debt so far in 2026, which is 2x the $172B for all of 2025. CoreWeave bond yields hit 15%!
From @OasiveAI weekly macro review
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Our weekly cross-asset analysis at @OasiveAI is out!
Bonds diversified better than usual last week. On Thursday, the S&P fell 1.2% while the 10y yield dropped 19bp
Stock-bond correlation is down to +0.2 over 60 sessions (below its 1y norm of +0.29)
Here are the biggest surprises vs what rates and stocks implied:
> Gold fell 4.2% vs an implied -0.6%
> Oil rose 4.4% vs an implied -1.7%
> VIX fell even though the selloff pointed to a 1.4pt rise
DM me for a copy!
Oasive (YC F26) retweeted
Big week for markets! Here's what to watch out for:
> Wed: Fed decision, hold is expected
> Thu: September PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Consensus is core +0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, up from 3%
> Thu: Q3 GDP., consensus is around 3%
> Fri: Q3 employment cost index (the cleanest read on wages)
On the equity earnings side: Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon
A hot PCE print would make a December hike close to a sure thing but a soft one would bring the odds down.