@OddStats

Retired finance professional. I can't see the future and neither can you; anyone who says different has something to sell. NOTHING I SAY IS INVESTMENT ADVICE.

OddStatsHonestTruth@gmail.com
Joined April 2013
You all can't possibly be this fucking stupid.
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SPX was ▪ Negative in June ▪ Negative in July ▪ Positive in August ▪ Negative in September What was the only other midterm year in American history where the S&P Index (S&P 500 since 1957) had the same pattern? ⁕ 2002 ⁕
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Bluekurtic reminds bears to get fucked this quarter.
Replying to @RyanDetrick
The S&P 500 also made atleast one new high in each of Q1, Q2 and Q3 this year. In such cases, Q4 was higher in 19/20 cases. Smells bullish.
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"Well, at least the market can't get MORE boring!" -me, like a fucking week ago QQQ has now touched 740.00 at some point during the past fucking seven regular fucking trading sessions. I quit.
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VIX hit 17 today for the first time in 10+ days. SPX has already been lower than yesterday's close at some point, mid-day. Of the last 40 times this has happened, going back to August 2013, only TWICE has SPX finished that day positive.
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This is now only the 2nd time in the history of the US 10 year Treasury that it has gone from under 4% to over 5.3% with 500 trading days. The only other time? June 2007
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Julie Hyman, competently stealing my job.
The S&P 500 finished September down 0.45%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 0.53 point (or 53 bps, for those of you who insist). The last time there was a monthly move this big in yields was September 2022. That month, the S&P 500 fell by more than 9%.
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SPX has an +11.77% YTD return here at the end of September. There have only been three calendar years ever with as good a start as 2026 has had, and then a -2% or worse return for Q4: 1929 [-28.9%] 1987 [-23.2%] 1943 [-3.4%] So: Black Tuesday, Black Monday, WW2.
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SPX was just up +17.2% across Q2 and Q3 of this year. You should know that all 8 calendar years where this has ever happened in the history of the S&P 500, the 4th quarter was also positive, with a median return of +6.9%
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SPX just had a negative June, July, and September in 2026. This is the 12th time now a calendar year has done that. ** All 7 times it has happened since 1971, the S&P 500 finished negative for the entire year. **
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For 41 painful trading days, SPX has been stuck in a 4.01% trading range, with VIX currently over 15. This is the third most boring such stretch in the past 30+ years. And would you like to know when the other two happened? [1/3]
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End of 2025/Beginning of 2026 43 trading days later, SPX was down almost -10% after someone started a war with Iran. [2/3]
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May/June 2007 A few months later, the worst financial crisis since the Great Fucking Depression began. A year and a half later, SPX was down more than 55%. [3/3]
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The S&P Index (500 stocks since 1957) ▪ has been up at least +10% YTD ▪ at the end of September/Q3 ▪ 42 times now The only one of the forty one previous years where it finished negative?
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Barring a spectacular crash this afternoon, SPX will have just had a +14% Q2 followed by a positive Q3. And how has Q4 been during every previous year with a similar setup?
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LADIES AND GENTLEMEN DAMAS Y CABALLEROS If you were one of the 4 people back in August who guaranteed me that we would have a major SPX crash in September and that you'd be back to point and laugh, skate your loser ass down to the DJ booth to collect your prize.
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JUST ME, RIGHT? 1) Are you also kinda thinking, "sure feels like something really fucking bad is gonna happen soon, doesn't it?" 2) Does *that* not have you kinda thinking, "every time I think that, I'm wrong. I bet the market is up 10% in a fucking month." 3) Does THAT not kinda have you thinking, "well, last time I did the inverse trade, I *still* fucking lost." 4) And does THAT not kinda have you thinking, "yeah, fuck it, I guess I'll just sit this one out entirely; which guarantees it'll happen?"
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Well, shit. XLF, the financial sector ETF, is down -7.44% in 16 days from its most recent all time highest mid-day point. But all you care about is where, on a SPX chart, all prior events like this occurred. Uhhh....
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▪ Total payments (down/principal/interest) ▪ $500,000 house ▪ 20% down ▪ 30 year mortgage -2021- 2.97% rate $704,782 -2026- 7.50% rate $1,106,869 Good luck, kids.
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This is correct.
This quoted post is unavailable.
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